So, I was a bit off in my prediction that Villanova would make it to the national title game.
There’s always next year, I guess.
I cited a friendly draw given to Villanova by the selection committee as a big reason that Villanova could make it to the title game. I figured that as flawed as a two-seed as they may be, they should be able to handle their first two opponents and fight out a victory against Baylor. I also thought Villanova could beat the South region’s No. 1 seed, Duke, by a comfortable margin because I thought Villanova matched up really well with Duke. In the Final Four, I liked Villanova to match up with Big East rival West Virginia, a team that Villanova could have easily beaten twice in conference play, but went 1-1 against.
So much for that.
Robert Morris out-played Villanova in the first round despite losing in overtime. Then St. Mary’s sound offensive concept and presence of a good big man did Villanova in. St. Mary’s ran a patient, disciplined approach on the offensive end, leaning on their big man, Omar Samhan.
Samhan dominated the paint all game, going 13-of-16 from the field and putting up 32 points. Villanova’s absence of a big man to contain a player like Samhan troubled the Wildcats all year, and was a huge part of their final demise this season.
Also interesting was how Villanova failed to, well, run an offense. It looked like five guys thrown out onto the floor, playing together for the first time in their lives. No consistent cutting, not much movement without the ball, and certainly no big man to rely on when the jumpers aren’t falling. No consistent presence underneath the hoop to help out with the offensive rebounding effort and nobody that can post up effectively.
The only time Villanova made any type of offensive run was when their pressing style of defense was immediately converted into points in transition.
But hey, if Scottie Reynolds (2-for-11 against St. Mary’s) and Corey Fisher (3-for-13) shoot decently, Villanova probably gets away with everything and is onto the Sweet 16.
Here’s where I’ll give credit to a previous commenter, who simply refers to himself as “KA.” This KA fellow was not at all pleased with my prediction that Villanova would go to the title game:
“Glad to see the Morgan State shout, but I saw no love for Baylor and too much love for Villanova. Mr. Reynolds is a great player, and yes they have an array of good guards, but what are they going to do on the interior? Who are they going to feed? Who is going to bring the defense in, and then muscle up for rebounds? No one. That is where Nova will have their problems. Someone is going outrun them, outshoot them, and/or outrebound them. Whether that is Duke, Louisville, Baylor, Richmond, or any other team from that bracket, it’s going to happen.”
KA was right on.