Livan Hernandez has a 2.94 ERA through 13 starts for the Washington Nationals, which is a better ERA than Tim Lincecum, Roy Oswalt, Johan Santata and Felix Hernandez.
Any baseball fan knows than L. Hernandez pales in comparison to those four other starters listed, but what does Hernandez have in his favor against the others that has helped him give up less earned runs per nine innings thus far this season?
Well, luck. A whole lot of luck.
Essentially every advanced measure in regards to Hernandez’s first 13 starts indicates that he has been very lucky with the outcomes of the batted ball, and is due for regression over the course of a long, six-month season.
Hernandez’s surface statistics are more than acceptable — any team in the bigs would love to have a 2.94 ERA to their starting rotation. Hernandez has given up 75 hits and 31 walks in 85.2 innings, leaving his walks per nine at 3.26, which is a bit high, but his low amount of hits allowed leaves his WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) at a very respectable 1.24. Not domination, but still more than serviceable, it appears.
Hernandez’s 85.2 innings are nothing to take lightly, either. For a team like the Nationals that has struggled mightily to get consistent, quality innings out of their starters, there is significant value to a starter that is currently pro-rating to throw approximately 200 innings this season.
Also noteworthy among Hernandez’s surface statistics is that he’s only given up eight home runs, or 0.84 homers per nine innings. Keeping the ball in the park, at a very minimum, gives the defense a chance to bail the pitcher out on a given batted ball.
Ah, the batted ball. That’s where Hernandez’s great luck has come into play. He’s only given up 75 hits in his 85.2 innings, and everything seems to indicate that Hernandez will begin to allow hits much more frequently.
Hernandez has only struck out batters this season, good for a 3.68 strikeouts per nine innings, third-worst in the majors among qualifying starters. Hernandez is certainly allowing hitters to put plenty of balls in play, or as they say these days, is “pitching to contact.” Indeed, 88.8% of Hernandez’s pitches are resulting in contact, and only 4.5% of the pitches he’s throwing are resulting in swings and misses. He’s not missing many bats. He’s not particularly fooling anyone, especially when considering his pitching repertoire.
64.4% of Hernandez’s pitches this season have been his low-to-mid-80′s fastball; 17.o%, high-70′s sliders; 9.2%, a mid-60′s curveball; and 9.4%, a high-70′s changeup. And he’ll bust out an eephus pitch from time to time.
Not exactly a strikeout formula.
Hitters are putting the a ton of balls in play against Hernandez, which leaves Hernandez susceptible to allowing a ton of hits and baserunners. Strikeouts eliminate the possibility an error in the field, a weakly hit bloop falling in between fielders in the outfield, or a fielder just missing snatching a line drive out of the air. Once the ball is put in play, it’s essentially luck that accounts for if the batted ball results in a hit.
Batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) tend to hover around .300, meaning that of the balls put in play (homers not included), around 30% of them tend to fall in for hits. Hernandez’s BABIP is a ridiculously low .245. It’s difficult to say that his low BABIP is completely due to luck, but that .245 BABIP will definitely trend closer to .300 as the season moves along, and with it, more hits will begin falling in and more runs will be scored.
His FIP of 4.61 also indicates that Hernandez is in for regression, as this indicates that the aspects of his game that he can control — strikeouts, walks and homers allowed — are at levels that make his 2.94 ERA unsustainable over 30 starts. Hernandez simply does not strike out enough batters and walks a few too many to minimize the effects of chance and luck over a long season.
Simply put, Hernandez is the antithesis of Stephen Strasburg. When Strasburg strikes out 14 in seven innings, that’s pure dominance. Strasburg is minimizing the effects of chance and luck — the pitcher is depending on his defense for just seven outs over seven innings, or one out per inning. Simply dominant, something that Hernandez is not.
Just don’t be fooled by Hernandez’s ERA.
All statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.