In baseball, free agency can linger for months. In hockey, teams have essentially one day — July 1 starting at noon (EDT) – to significantly improve their clubs via free agency. Last July 1, Washington Capitals fans got a Christmas-in-July present in the name of Mike Knuble. Sure, teams can pick up the Brendan Morrison-type relatively cheap later in the summer, but for all intensive purposes, July 1 is the day to address your needs via free agency. The Capitals are close to $16 million under the $59.4 million salary cap coming into Thursday, according to Cap Geek. Key restricted free agents Jeff Schultz, Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon and Tomas Fleischmann remain unsigned for next year, so considering their expected deals for the 2010-’11 season, that would leave the Capitals with about $4.5 million left to play with on Thursday, according to Tarik El-Bashir of The Washington Post’s “Capitals Insider.”
Needs
Everyone who watched at least some of the Capitals’ first round playoff series against the Montreal Canadiens knows exactly what the needs of the team are — second line center and a top-four defenseman. The Capitals tried to band-aid their hole at second line center last offseason with the addition of Morrison, which didn’t pan out. Thus, the Capitals acquired Eric Belanger via trade at the deadline last season, but Belanger proved to be more of a third line center than a second liner. The Capitals tried a merry-go-round of centers at the second line all season, including Morrison and Belanger, along with Tomas Fleischmann, who could never win enough faceoffs to maintain a spot at center. A year later, the Capitals are still looking for a second line center to maximize the abilities of Alexander Semin and Brooks Laich.
As far as a defenseman is concerned, as I outlined in a previous post, for a free agent defenseman to impact the Capitals to his maximum abilities, the Capitals must recognize their faulty penalty killing scheme. No free agent addition will be able to help take the Capitals to the next level if they’re held back by a faulty scheme. That scheme is a penalty kill in which the penalty killers don’t move once they get into their box. I think adjusting the penalty killing scheme to be much more agressive to the puck handler (similar to what the Canadiens’ penalty killers did to the Capitals) is priority No. 1 on the defensive side of things, but nevertheless, a defenseman will be needed come next April, at the very least, to take pressure off of Mike Green — there’s no reason Green needs to be fulfilling big-time penalty killing duties in the playoffs.
Remember That…
A team is never one player away from winning the Stanley Cup. Capitals fans believed that Knuble may very well turn out to be the veteran, crease-crashing piece that the Capitals needed to win the Cup, but the Capitals obviously took a step backwards from their second round exit two postseasons ago. Teams can gear themselves up for a potential Cup run by adding a piece or two in free agency, but all it takes is one untimely injury come April, and everything comes crashing down.
Also remember that this isn’t fantasy hockey — there is indeed a salary cap. The Capitals most likely will not want to spend all the way to the cap ceiling due to possible future financial concerns and that teams always want at least a few dollars to play with come next March so they can wheel and deal at the deadline — needs may crop up mid-season that aren’t visible in July due to injuries and regression of production from key pieces (especially from players on the wrong side of 30). Considering that the Capitals will have about $4.5 million to spend on Thursday, I’d assume that the Capitals will go after a second-line center that will take a short-term deal for about $2.5-3.00 million per season.
Possible Free Agent Additions
The name that a lot of Capitals fans probably want is Matthew Lombardi of the Phoenix Coyotes, a top-six forward who would be the ideal fit for the second line given the options available on the free agent market. Lombardi, a centerman known for his great speed, would seemingly mesh well with Semin. In 78 games for the Coyotes, Lombardi scored 19 goals and 35 assists, and made $2.35 million last season. From Scott Burnside of ESPN.com:
“Lombardi may be another Coyote who is victim of the team’s cash crunch. A center who scored 19 goals last season, he will be attractive to many teams because he will be cheaper than other centers on the market and would be a nice No. 2 pivot who could help the power play. The Rangers might be interested if they can ease some of their own cap crunch.”
I’m not so sure if I’m buying Lombardi being a cheap option. At 28 years old, I’d imagine Lombardi would be looking for the biggest contract of his career. Lombardi would certainly fit as a No. 2 center, and his 2009-’10 salary would fit into the Capitals’ plans. But I struggle to think that an offense-starved team like the Rangers wouldn’t offer Lombardi more dollars and years than the Capitals, though.
El-Bashir mentions that Saku Koivu and Matt Cullen could also be options for the Capitals. Koivu, 35, and Cullen, 33, would probably be much more willing to take a one- or two-year deal than Lombardi. Koivu, who made $3.25 million last season, recorded 19 goals and 33 assists in 71 games for the Anaheim Ducks, while Cullen ($2.88 million) put up a combined 16 goals and 32 assists for both the Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators.
Here’s what Burnside has to say about Koivu and Cullen:
Koivu scored just 19 times in 71 games this past season after the former Montreal captain signed on with the Ducks a year ago. After a one-year experiment in California, one wonders whether now might not be a good time for the classy 35-year-old to join brother Mikko in Minnesota, where the Wild are desperate for leadership and a playoff berth (not necessarily in that order).
Another interesting theory to consider: What about a stop in Washington to fill the space previously held by Brendan Morrison as a second-line center? The Caps are another team looking for a final piece to the Cup puzzle, and Koivu is one of the game’s stand-up guys who’ll almost certainly come at a much cheaper price tag than a year ago. He’ll never be a 40-goal guy, but the Caps have plenty of those already.
It’s worth noting that 29 of Koivu’s 52 points came in the second half, and he missed six games over that period with injury. The chances of Koivu staying in Anaheim go up if Teemu Selanne decides not to retire.
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Like a handful of loyal Carolina soldiers, Cullen was sent off to the playoffs by the Canes at the trade deadline. Things didn’t exactly work out as planned for Cullen or the Senators (he delivered just four goals in 21 games with Ottawa), but he did lead all Ottawa forwards in ice time in the playoffs and tied for the team lead with captain Daniel Alfredsson with eight points. Cullen remains an attractive plan for teams that may not have the financial wherewithal to go after the few big guns on the market. Cullen is a skilled player who has scored more than 20 goals in a season twice since the lockout. He can play center and man the point on the power play. Depending on what Toronto does with Marc Savard, Cullen may be a fit for a team with the worst power play in the league.”
Burnside seems to think that Koivu would be a good fit in Washington. Koivu would almost certainly it into the Capitals’ financial situation — so, too, would Cullen. It’s a matter of who the Capitals think would mesh the best with Semin and Laich, and I really have no idea who would.
Still, I’m guessing a lot of Capitals fans would much rather see general manager George McPhee go after a defenseman with their available cap space, but I just don’t see it happening. There are three very legitimate top-four defensive defensemen on the market — shot blocking machine Anton Volchenkov (Ottawa), Dan Hamhuis (played with Nashville last season, had his negotiating rights recently traded to Philadelphia, which then traded his rights to Pittsburgh), and Zbynek Michalek (Phoenix). The Coyotes are working hard to re-sign Michalek, who profiles as Anton Volchenkov-Lite.
Hamhuis and Michalek are both 27 years old, and Volchenkov is 28, so all three are entering the prime of their careers and will be looking to be paid like it. My guess is that all three will command at least $4.0 million per season, which would price all of them out of the Capitals’ range.
The Capitals could theoretically go after a defenseman like 31-year-old Henrik Tallinder (Buffalo) or 35-year-old Andy Sutton (Ottawa), but I see McPhee staying put with what he has rather than add a piece like that — remember, the Capitals will get a full season, barring injury, from both John Carlson and Karl Alzner.
The Bottom Line
I think the Capitals’ defensive issues — especially the issues on the penalty kill — are more schematic-related than personnel-related. The penalty killing issues were obvious in the regular season, but became much more exposed during the playoff series against the Canadiens. I don’t think any free agent defenseman will magically transform the Capitals into a top-10 penalty killing unit, but rather, only an overhaul of the penalty killing scheme would be an effective elixir. I hope the Capitals recognize the need to fix the penalty kill, and I think they will put in the necessary work to fix it for the playoffs next year.
The Capitals already have the necessary defensive personnel to help put together a 121-point season. The defensive personnel and scheme is plenty good enough to win the Presidents’ Trophy, but it’s not good enough to win the Stanley Cup. I foresee McPhee waiting to possibly add a top-four defenseman until next March, because there’s already plenty in Washington to roll through the regular season, especially with the addition of a full-time Carlson and Alzner.
By waiting until March, it’ll give McPhee time to move a piece or two around in order to make room financially for a true impact defenseman that can take pressure off of Green (like I said before, I’d prefer Green not be killing penalties in the playoffs). And more importantly, by waiting until March, it’d give the Capitals time to institute a new penalty killing philosophy and scheme (the No. 1 defensive priority) before committing significant dollars and years to a free agent defenseman.
As for Thursday, I think the Capitals do indeed get a second-line center. I’d like to see it be Lombardi, but I think he’ll be priced out of the Capitals’ range, maybe moreso with the years than the dollars. I’ll venture a total guess that Koivu is a Capital by Thursday evening.