This is from a series of seven tweets from Buster Olney of ESPN:
“Heard this: Would-be free agent Adam Dunn has just about lost interest in working out a long-term deal with the Nationals because of what he perceives to be a lack of urgency from the team in working out a new deal. He does not feel there seems to be the same amount of interest as he has in working out contract. The Nationals are fast approaching fish-or-cut bait time with the slugger, who is fast approaching his seventh consecutive with 38 or more homers. At a time when power is becoming more scarce in the game, his value would appear to be high in the forthcoming free agent market — if the Nationals don’t move fast. The Nationals have had conversations with other teams about possible deals involving Dunn, and it figures they will trade him if they don’t work out a contract extension in the days ahead. The White Sox are among the interested teams.”
Two things propelled the Nationals to a 20-15 start to the season and kept them afloat for much of the first half — the 3-4-5 in their lineup and their bullpen. The 3-4-5 of their lineup is among the best in the major leagues, with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman batting third; Dunn, fourth; and left fielder Josh Willingham, fifth.
Dunn is eighth in the big leagues in OPS at .959; Willingham, 19th in the bigs at .913; and Zimmerman, 21st, at .909. Dunn is eighth in the bigs in wOBA at .405; Willingham, ninth, at .404; and Zimmerman, 26th, at .388. Dunn and Willingham are the third and fourth in the National League, respectively, in wOBA. This is an extremely productive middle of an order, so anyone would be loathe to break it up if these numbers were to continue into the foreseeable future for each hitter.
But with Dunn’s contract up at the end of the season, the Nationals have a pressing issue on their hands. Do they move Dunn for the best bundle of prospects they can find or do they re-sign the 6-foot-6, 287-pound first baseman to a new deal?
Well, the basic case for keeping Dunn is that — as outlined above — his production helps bolster quite a formidable middle of an order for years to come. The Nationals don’t have a Mike Stanton-type on the way from the minor leagues that projects to quickly become a middle-of-the-order hitter, so the team either keeps Dunn or has a gaping hole at the cleanup spot. 40 homers per year doesn’t exactly grow on trees, especially now that yearly home run totals are back down to reasonable levels.
Another interesting part of Dunn is that, while he’s universally considered to be a terrible fielder at whatever position he plays, he’s been about an average fielder at first base this year. The Nationals committed to Dunn being their everyday first baseman during spring training rather than shuffling him between first base and the outfield. It’s paid off, as Dunn, a career -17.3 UZR per 150 games at first base and a career -13.3 UZR per 150 games in the outfield, has improved to become a very slightly below average first baseman this year, with a -0.6 UZR.
Now, one isn’t supposed to look at just one season’s worth of UZR — especially when that season is only a little over three months old — but I can tell you, from watching a lot of Nationals’ games this year, that Dunn is much improved first baseman from years past. Dunn has certainly become a viable enough first baseman that National League teams won’t be so scared off by his skills at first base that they wouldn’t offer Dunn a contract this coming offseason if they otherwise would have.
So if Dunn’s defense is no longer a big concern and he makes up part of a very productive middle of an order, the Nationals should sign up Dunn for a brand new three or four year deal, right? Well, let’s take a gander.
Dunn has an impressive line this season of .288/.372/.588 with 22 homers and a .405 wOBA. Dunn’s .288 batting average is 36 points above his career average, while his .372 on-base percentage is 11 points lower than his .383 career on-base mark.
How in the world did Dunn’s batting average go up 36 points, while his on-base percentage went markedly down? Simple. His walk rate has gone way down from years past. Dunn has accumulated a 10.9% walk rate this year, while his career mark is 16.5%. Dunn is leaving himself vulnerable to make more outs this year than in years past, and he has indeed made more outs, even if his batting average has skyrocketed.
Since Dunn is indeed making more outs this year than any other year in his career since 2003, his successes this year can be attributed to one main factor: BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Dunn’s career BABIP is .297 — pretty standard for any hitter. His BABIP this year is .365, which indicates that Dunn has gotten very lucky this season and is in for some regression towards his career means in the second half.
But Dunn is making the most out of the hits he has gotten this year. Of his 92 hits, 22 have been homers, 26 have been doubles, and two have been triples. Over half of Dunn’s hits have gone for extra bases, hence his .588 slugging percentage – 44 points above his career slugging percentage. Dunn’s 26 doubles this year already hover around his yearly totals throughout his career, seemingly a direct reflection of his BABIP — as are his batting average and slugging percentage.
I’d imagine that Dunn is definitely in for a little regression towards his career averages in the second half. Dunn’s BABIP will gradually creep back down towards .300 (.335 by the end of the season?) and henceforth, his batting average and slugging percentage will both decrease a bit as those hard hit balls to the gaps start to find more gloves. The home runs will definitely still be there — I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dunn pushing 45 homers towards the end of the season if he gets on a home run binge late.
Even with some inevitable regression, I still think Dunn has a career year. He’s headed towards a 40 homer and 40 double season with an OPS well north of .900 and a wOBA hovering around .400.
One would also think that Dunn — who’s swung at 45.6% of the pitches he’s seen, up from his career average of 40.7% — will begin to take a few more pitches and hence, a few more walks, as the season progresses and both his walk rate and on-base percentage will shift a little towards his career means. Interestingly, though, Dunn is swinging away at 28.5% of pitches he’s seeing outside of the strike zone, up from his career average of 17.8%. As is stated often on the Nationals’ MASN broadcast, Dunn is being a lot more aggresive this season than in the past. One would assume that Dunn may be swinging away more because he’s getting a lot of pitches to drive due to Willingham’s presence behind him in the batting order, but that’s not the case. 43.3% of the pitches Dunn is seeing are within the strike zone, down from his career average of 47.5%.
All told, Dunn has put together a first half in which he’s been worth 3.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), so he’s already well-eclipsed last year’s 1.2 WAR. In fact, Dunn is set to shatter every one of his season’s WAR totals except for 2004 with the Cincinnati Reds (5.2 WAR). Dunn’s increase in WAR is a direct coorelation with his improved defense this season. Dunn’s value skyrockets as an average defender at first base.
Dunn’s going to end up putting up offensive numbers a little above his career averages due to an increased aggresiveness at the plate and a high BABIP, but it’s his defense that makes Dunn a significantly more valuable player this year than in the past. Last year, Dunn recorded a .396 wOBA (right around where it is now), but was horrific defensively (-37.1 combined UZR between first and left), and thus, was left with a very ordinary 1.2 WAR. Even when examined under a greater lens, Dunn is a .386 career wOBA, so his increased offensive numbers this year really aren’t that much of an increase. It’s his improved defense that lifts Dunn to being a complete player in terms of overall value.
Let’s assume Dunn doesn’t get injured during the second half, and thus, that he’s headed towards another 5.2 WAR-type of season that he recorded in 2004, when he put up a .403 wOBA and wasn’t that bad defensively (-2.3 combined UZR between first base and left field, but played the vast majority of his time — 146 starts — in left). Given that the market pays about $4.5 million per win, Dunn has already been worth about $13.5 million to the Nationals (3.0 WAR multiplied by 4.5). If Dunn ends up with a 5.2 WAR, then Dunn would be worth $23.4 million to the Nationals. If Dunn’s vastly increased defensive acumen continues for the foreseeable future, is Dunn worth a contract of three years and $40 million, which is the type of contract that Dunn is rumored to probably get? For $13.33 million per year, I’d hold onto Dunn, but only if you think his improved defense this season isn’t a mirage.
(Update: I forgot to mention this when I first published the post, but Dunn is 30 years old. I have no reservations about Dunn’s production over the span of a three-year deal in relation to his career averages. He’s going to continue to mash and get on base a lot. The real concern, to me, is his defense. Moving on).
I think the value is there to sign Dunn to a three-year deal. To lock up Dunn, though, the Nationals would have to hammer out this contract extension right now because if the Nationals wait until after the trade deadline to try to lock him up, Dunn will be so close to free agency that he’ll really want to test the free agent waters. So if the Nationals decide that they don’t like Dunn’s asking price, they need to trade him.
What’s two months of Dunn worth in a trade? I’m not sure, but I’d assume teams are dangling a good Double-A-type prospect that projects to be in big leagues within a year and a filler prospect or two in order to complete the deal. One thing’s for sure, though — any package that the Nationals are offered will be of much better quality than keeping Dunn and letting him walk at the end of the season and henceforth just settling for draft picks.
I think the value is there to re-sign Dunn to a three-year deal worth around $40 million. If the Nationals offer Dunn that type of three-year deal within the next week or so and Dunn rejects the offer, then trade him. If Rizzo keeps Dunn, then he’d be hedging his bet that he’d be able to re-sign Dunn in the offseason, but again, once a player gets that close to free agency, he’s going to ultimately test the market. Rizzo can’t afford to keep Dunn without a contract extension because at that point, Rizzo’s bound to just end up with draft picks.
Now, would Dunn look good in a certain shade of orange? We’ll discuss that at another time.
All statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.