My first reaction to the news that Stephen Strasburg needed Tommy John surgery to repair a tear in his right elbow was that I felt horrible for Washington Nationals fans — and that remains my foremost thought. I can’t imagine what it would be like to be a diehard fan of the Nationals right now.
After a long period of time without a team, Washington baseball fans have been treated to horrific baseball of late – Nationals’ history has been worse than that of the Baltimore Orioles spanning the last few years. That’s bad — really bad. Then, Nationals fans were blessed with the No. 1 pick in the correct year and ended up with Strasburg, a pitcher with once-in-a-decade talent and a pitching repertoire that was among the best in the big leagues as soon as he put on a Nationals jersey.
Strasburg was the centerpiece of the Nationals’ rebuilding program, the great white hope. Things were slowly coming together for the Nationals — with Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, they had the beginnings of a really nice, young starting rotation. They had Drew Storen at the back end of the bullpen. They already had one of the best players in the big leagues, Ryan Zimmerman, over at third base. And 17-year-old Bryce Harper, whose potential is seemingly limitless, was signed and ready to begin his ascent through the Nationals’ farm system. Things were looking way up.
And one morning, it seems like all of it, ever so quickly, falls apart. It really does feel that way for Nationals fans right now. For Orioles fans, I’ll try to wrap a little context around the loss of Strasburg to Tommy John — it would be like if Orioles fans found out – on the same day – that Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta would all undergo Tommy John surgery. Imagine how you’d feel if that scenario played out — and that’s how Nationals fans feel right now. My buddy, who’s a Red Sox fan, said the Nationals losing Strasburg to Tommy John would be like if the Red Sox lost Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.
But you know what? Even though I spoke in the past tense in terms of Strasburg’s potential earlier in the post, it’s far too early to write off Strasburg as another pitcher claimed by injury. Strasburg can still be the centerpiece of the rebuilding program in Washington. Strasburg can still be one of the great pitchers in baseball. As bad as things seem right now, in reality, it’s not as bad as it seems. Plenty of pitchers have come back from Tommy John surgery better than ever — just ask Josh Johnson, who recovered from Tommy John to be one of the best pitchers in the game today.
All that Nationals fans can do is think in a positive nature — that Strasburg will be the next Johnson, that Strasburg will return better and healthier than ever. Even still, Nationals fans can’t begin to speculate how Strasburg’s pitching repertoire will be affected by the surgery and lengthy rehab – they’ll drive themselves crazy. They just need to hope for the best. And for fans of baseball, we should be hoping for the best along with Nationals fans — because a baseball world with Strasburg is a better place than without him. The more great and exciting players there are, the better.
But at some point, the Nationals have to stop grieving about Strasburg and look towards the future and this offseason. Here is part of what Dave Cameron of FanGraphs had to say about the effect Strasburg’s injury has on the Nationals’ organization:
“This is a loss for the game. Obviously, it’s a pretty significant blow to the Nationals as well, who now have to re-think their path to contention and potentially push back their time-frame a year or two. If they were thinking of re-signing Adam Dunn before, they almost certainly shouldn’t now. Losing Strasburg for 2011 and getting a questionable version of him for 2012 pushes the Nats back into long-term building mode, as they just lost a player they simply can’t replace. This injury has a significant effect on the decisions Washington has to make this winter.”
In the near term, like Cameron states, the Nationals are likely to delve deeper into a rebuilding mode this offseason than if Strasburg was healthy. I doubt Nationals’ management has any interest in putting big dollars into free agent pieces this offseason when the team’s short-term potential just changed for the worse in such a radical fashion. With Strasburg in his second year at the top of the rotation and a healthy Zimmermann, the Nationals might have been an interesting team in the National League East next year. Probably not so much anymore — the offseason game plan might have changed from adding a bat and a starter to getting a prospect or two for Josh Willingham.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention this before, but a really good point was made by Jim Callis of Baseball America on Twitter on Friday: Strasburg’s 2.6 WAR that he accumulated during his brief time this year will eclipse every other 2009 draftee through 2011 even though he won’t play next year. So there’s that.