If Buck Showalter finishes the current homestand at 7-0, then just slap “Buck Showalter” on the American League Manager of the Year trophy and present it to him on the next homestand. Seriously. Do it.
I really don’t recognize the team I’ve seen the past four days. Four good starts. Timely hitting. Crisply played baseball with little to no boneheaded mental errors. The team for the past week resembles…a major league baseball team! Imagine that.
Obviously the team has been given a bit of a spark with the hiring of Showalter and it’s given them a little kick in the ass. But I can’t explain how a team with awful starting pitching and a penchant to wilt at a big spot during games all of the sudden does a complete 180 degree reversal for Showalter.
Actually, I do have an explanation: small sample size. But do remember that Showalter is now working with a better lineup than any of his predecessors. Showalter has a healthy Brian Roberts who’s now getting back into full playing shape and Luke Scott is currently mashing. And unlike his predecessors, he does not have counter-productive players in Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins. Keep that in mind.
A decision on Scott in the offseason? General manager Andy MacPhail will have to decide over the offseason how to give his rebuilding plan another lift, and the only two trade chips that MacPhail figures to have over the offseason are Scott and Jeremy Guthrie, both of whom could possibly be in demand by other teams not just for their respective career production, but their reasonable salaries. I think MacPhail will definitely keep Guthrie as an innings-eater given how young the starting rotation will be, but he’ll have an interesting choice to make with Scott.
Scott is currently the most productive hitter in the Orioles lineup, as he brought a .286/.350/.576 line and a .393 wOBA for the season into action on Friday. He’s already a 2.2 WAR for the season, primarily as a designated hitter. The problem for Scott, though, has been that he’s habitually one of the streakiest hitters in the league year after year. Scott’s slash line in April was .194/.280/.358. Since April, though, I’ve seen pretty steady production out of Scott, and he’s yet to go into another prolonged slump. I’m sure I’m just being naive, but I’m hoping that Scott could be growing out of his streakiness. Either that, or he hits .098 in September.
Along with his tendency to be a streaky hitter, another knock on Scott is that he’s a poor left fielder. He looks rough out there to the naked eye (he’s not the fleetest of foot), but he’s actually a career +6.1 UZR per 150 games in left field. So there.
I’d lean towards keeping Scott at this point because his kind of offensive production doesn’t exactly grow on trees, especially on a team that already lacks power throughout the lineup. A .900+ OPS isn’t just floating around the free agent market at a reasonable price, unless you strike gold on a one-year deal with a player like the San Francisco Giants did this past offseason with Aubrey Huff (.41o wOBA, 4.3 WAR coming into Friday at a $3 million salary for this season.) Scott’s production is especially valuable to the Orioles, whose young players already lack productive veterans within their surroundings and need as many as possible to ease the pressure on them.
But a prolonged slump for Scott this season could make me change my mind in regards to him being a player you want around. One could also make a great case to me that Scott’s having a career year — he’s a career .267/.350/.507 hitter (not terribly different from this year’s numbers, but the power numbers are certainly up this year) — and that the Orioles should sell high on Scott in the offseason. Obviously, much depends on what the Orioles would be offered in a potential trade and how aggressive the Orioles would be in trying to replace his production via free agency, but Scott’s status is worth monitoring in the offseason.
Over-slot bonuses are a great step for the organization. Under MacPhail, the Orioles have become much more aggressive in the draft, and I feel like scouting in the amateur draft and being uber-aggressive in signing your draft picks is one of the big things the Orioles absolutely must do if they want to get back to being competitive in the American League East. The Orioles have no excuse to not spend a ton of money in the amateur draft — this is one of the few places that the Orioles can and absolutely should be on a level playing field with the beasts of the AL East. On Friday, the Orioles made a big step in the right direction. This from Jim Callis of Baseball America:
With 10 days to go before the signing deadline, deals are starting to happen. On Friday, the Orioles signed fifth-round pick Connor Narron and ninth-rounder Parker Bridwell to bonuses that exceed MLB’s recommendations more than any other completed deals to date.
Narron signed for $650,000, which was $478,100 above MLB’s $171,900 guideline for the 171st overall choice. Bridwell signed for $625,000, topping MLB’s recommended $150,000 maximum for post-fifth-roudn [sic] picks by $475,000.
A shortstop at Aycock High in Pikeville, N.C., Narron is a switch-hitter who’s solid from both sides of the plate and has intriguing power potential for a middle infielder. He also has good hands and arm strength, though some scouts project him to eventually move to third base. The son of former big league catcher and manager Jerry Narron, Connor had committed to North Carolina.
Bridwell starred in baseball, football and basketball at Hereford (Texas) High, and he also drew interest from college football programs as a quarterback. The Texas Tech recruit is quite projectable at 6-foot-3 and 180 pounds. He pitched at 86-91 mph with his fastball in the spring, and should improve his velocity and secondary pitches now that he’ll focus on baseball.
Biggest overslot deals to date in all of baseball? Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. I cannot tell you how much I love reading this, which is only two days after the Orioles signed their eighth-rounder, Wynston Sawyer, to a $300,000 bonus. Callis answered my question on Twitter about what slot money is for an eighth rounder. He said, “MLB prefers $125k max after 5th rd, clubs can go to $150k. Above that, they have to explain why.” He answered my question!
I’m so glad the Orioles are being aggressive in the draft. Now go sign the rest of your top-10 picks and become more aggressive internationally.
(UPDATE: I asked Callis another question on Twitter, and he responded once again – what a guy. I asked him how much money he thought No. 1 overall draft pick Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals) and No. 3 overall pick Manny Machado (Orioles) were in line for. Callis estimated $10-12 million for Harper and $5-6 million for Machado.)