From Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun:
“It might not happen this week, but at some point soon, the Orioles could have a difficult decision to make on veteran starter Kevin Millwood.
Millwood lost his 14th game Sunday, giving up six runs in six innings to the Texas Rangers, who got three-run homers from Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. He has two more losses than any pitcher in the American League. He also leads the AL in earned runs (95) and hits (188) allowed. He has surrendered 26 home runs, tied for the second-highest total in the league and tied for the most he has allowed in any season in his big league career.”
First of all, I liked the acquisition of Millwood from the start, and I still don’t mind it. I obviously thought at the time of the trade that Millwood wasn’t a top-of-the-rotation arm, but it did seem like it would relieve a lot of potential pressure from the young starters — namely Brian Matusz – in feeling like they had to be an ace before even completing 50.0 big league innings. It also brought a starter with a track record of relative success — at least in comparison to the rest of the starters. It seemed like a sound acquisition, especially if all the team gave up was Chris Ray.
Sure, Millwood brought a hefty price tag (the Orioles picked up $12 million of Millwood’s $15 million salary for 2010) and his production figured to not justify his salary, but it was only a one-year commitment. So I hoped he’d churn out a few productive months and the Orioles would flip him for a nice return from a contender seeking a veteran starter at the deadline.
That, as it turned out, was a pipe dream.
Millwood started the season very well — in fact, he was one of the few productive players on the Orioles early in the season. After his May 6th start against the Boston Red Sox, Millwood’s ERA stood at 3.15. His ERA has been on a steady decline from that point to its current unsightly mark of 5.62. But to be fair, the defense behind Millwood has been nothing short of atrocious at times and just as atrocious is his offensive support on a per start basis.
Millwood’s 5.05 FIP and 4.63 xFIP are probably much better indications of how Millwood has pitched this year, but the fact remains that Millwood’s production this year is much less than the team could have reasonably expected when they acquired him. He’s gets hit around like a pinata in some outings, as the quality of the stuff in his repertoire seems to have really taken a nosedive since April. Millwood has had an average repertoire with pretty average results during his entire career, and when one mixes a shaky defense in with the overall decline his stuff, the results aren’t pretty. Hence, the 5.62 ERA.
Millwood isn’t missing any bats (6.0% swinging strike percentage, 9th-lowest in the majors among qualifying starters), and he’s not getting the ground balls to make up for it (39.0% ground ball rate.) So he’s getting hit hard. But you already knew that.
Honestly, I hadn’t recently thought of Millwood dropping out of the Orioles’ starting rotation — the Orioles are paying him a lot of money, after all. Sure, he hasn’t looked very good on the mound – but it never crossed my mind that he’d be moved from the rotation until I read Zrebiec’s blog post. Once Millwood’s poor performance deemed him untradeable in July, I just figured he’d stay in the rotation for the rest of the year. I also figured he’d easily clear waivers given his salary (which he has), but no contender would bother even sending a scout to one of his starts (why would a contender want Millwood, even if the Orioles picked up all of the dollars?)
But could the Orioles possibly just flat-out release Millwood? More from Zrebiec:
“Showalter all but said Chris Tillman, who has strung together three strong starts at Triple-A Norfolk, will rejoin the club when rosters expand in September. There are also indications that left-hander Zach Britton, the Orioles’ top pitching prospect yet to reach the majors, could be summoned to make a couple of September starts. Then there’s Rick VandenHurk, who is currently in the bullpen but is another guy team officials want to evaluate.
The problem is finding opportunities for all these guys. Sure, the Orioles could go to a six-man rotation, but starting today, they have five days off in a 32-day span. With a six-man rotation, that stretch would create a situation where guys would go five or six days in between starts, not exactly an ideal way to stay sharp.
They could shut down one of their young starters — Jake Arrieta would be the most likely candidate because he has already thrown 152 combined innings this year, a professional high — and insert Tillman, who has logged fewer innings that Arrieta. However, Showalter basically said yesterday that while the team is closely monitoring the young pitcher’s workload, it isn’t close to shutting anybody down.
Then, of course, there is the option of simply dropping a current starter, which brings us back to Millwood. His struggles, along with the fact that he probably won’t return next year, make him the most likely candidate, and several of you have been calling for the Orioles to do just that.
However, that decision isn’t as easy as you might think. The numbers are well-documented, but before Sunday’s start, Millwood allowed just five earned runs in 21 innings in his previous three outings.
Millwood has been a great soldier, embracing his role as mentor to the other starting pitchers. He is easily one of the most well-liked guys in the clubhouse. He hasn’t complained one bit that the Orioles have backed him with no offense and very little defense, even when he was pitching well. Millwood also has a good relationship with Showalter built from their days together in Texas.”
I guess I figured before I read this piece from Zrebiec that Millwood would remain an Oriole for the rest of the season mainly because of, like I mentioned before, his hefty salary. If you’re paying a starter $12 million, I’d imagine that even if the Orioles can’t get solid production out of Millwood, then that the Orioles are damn well going to want him to at least eat innings. But it appears as though the Orioles are willing to eat the few remaining millions of dollars on Millwood’s salary in order to clear room for the organization’s young arms not currently in the rotation — Tillman, Britton and VandenHurk.
Tillman, still a highly regarded young pitcher, will pitch in the big leagues in September. In his last three starts at Triple-A, which span 19.2 innings, Tillman has given up just four runs on a combined 18 hits (no homers), four walks and 20 strikeouts. His first three Triple-A starts after getting demoted from the bigs in July were ugly, but he’s righted the ship and is back to blowing away Triple-A hitters (seven innings, two hits, eight strikeouts in his last outing.) Bring him up in September and try to prepare him to be in the Opening Day starting rotation next April. For Tillman, it’s time to stick in a big league rotation.
The Orioles need to let the 22-year-old Tillman try to work out the kinks at the big league level now. The team can’t send him down to Norfolk as soon as he has a poor start in the bigs (I didn’t like the way they were yo-yo’ing him between Baltimore and Norfolk previously), and I don’t know if he can learn much of anything by blowing away Triple-A hitters at this point. It’s time the Orioles give him an extended look for Showalter. Hopefully, Tillman performs well enough in the eyes of Showalter to warrant a spot in the rotation next April.
I wouldn’t worry about getting Britton, who is rapidly approaching his career high in innings pitched for a season, a few starts in September. Britton, the Orioles’ top pitching prospect, is regarded as one of the best prospects in the game. But let’s calm down about getting Britton to the big leagues — I really don’t know what the rush would be with him. After all, this is a 22-year-old who, unlike Tillman, does not have significant time in Triple-A (just nine starts covering 49.2 innings.)
Yes, I understand that he has a nice-looking 3.08 ERA at Norfolk and is a ground-ball machine that will probably overmatch Triple-A hitters soon. I just don’t understand the rush to throw him into the AL East at the end of the year after just a handful of Triple-A starts. Britton’s already done plenty this year. Tell Britton to rest his arm up for the Arizona Fall League in October and to be ready to compete for a spot in the starting rotation in spring training come February (although I think Britton starts next year in Norfolk to delay his service time, but I feel like he may force his way up before he gains an extra year before arbitration.)
And I’m sure VandenHurk will get a couple starts. So that would leave, as of now, a September rotation of Matusz, Millwood, Tillman, Brad Bergesen, Jeremy Guthrie and Jake Arrieta. VandenHurk will probably get a couple spot starts. That’s six starters minus VandenHurk. There are five rotation spots. If the Orioles are to keep a five-man rotation — and Zrebiec did mention in his piece that a six-man rotation for the Orioles is pretty impractical at this point — then a starter has to go. Zrebiec also mentioned that Arrieta could get shut down, but the team is no where near shutting down Arrieta — or anyone else.
The Orioles could send Bergesen, who hasn’t exactly been a world-beater this year, to the bullpen and keep Millwood in the rotation. But that isn’t practical in the sense that Bergesen is someone who could be a fifth starter for the Orioles next year, and the only way to evaluate whether he can get AL East hitters out is by sending him out there every fifth day. Without Bergesen leaving the rotation or Arrieta being shut down or the possibility of a six-man rotation, the odd man out is Millwood.
Yes, Millwood has been a great soldier. He got traded from a contender in the Texas Rangers to a non-contender in the Orioles, and has been treated to abysmal offensive and defensive support and hasn’t complained about any of it once. But quite frankly, the team has to look past the fact that Millwood has been a good soldier and he’s a good clubhouse guy and look towards the future of the team. To help evaluate the organization’s pieces for 2011, releasing Millwood soon (by September 1?) and replacing his spot in the rotation with Tillman is necessary.
Getting Tillman starts in September is infinitely more valuable to the Orioles long-term than Millwood just playing out his contract — and that’d be the case even if Millwood was pitching well (and in that case, he’d be gone via trade rather than through a release.) If the players in the clubhouse feel bad that Millwood is the one that’s let loose, then tough.
Let’s be honest here — the only way the Orioles can let Millwood loose is through a release. There’s no way any team in the big leagues takes him off their hands with the way Millwood is pitching right now. Millwood’s lack of productivity just compounds the need for Tillman to take his spot in the rotation.