Football is back — prediction time

Will the Baltimore Ravens, shown here in training camp on Aug. 3, validate Super Bowl expectations?

Here are my predictions for the 2010 NFL season, and I’m sure most will be wrong. We’ll look back on these in five months. Predicted record and, if applicable, playoff seed in perentheses.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, No. 3 seed.) Yes, I’m a homer and writing that the Ravens will finish in first place in the division is a biased opinion. But for the Ravens to come in first in this division — one of the tougher divisions in the league — this is the year in which quarterback Joe Flacco must take the step from being the shy kid from Delaware to being the elite quarterback for a Super Bowl contender. Flacco took a big step in his progression last year, and he’ll have to take another step forward for the Ravens to get where they have to be. Everything else is in place for the Ravens — they have an elite running game, a vast array of weapons to choose from on the outside for Flacco, and a defense that should be better than it was last year. The holes in the team are minimal, but the biggest concern is not the cornerbacks (the Josh Wilson acquisition was big), but the right tackle situation. When will Jared Gaither be ready to go? No one knows. And don’t worry about the loss of Ed Reed to the PUP list — Tom Zbikowski will be quite good in his shoes.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card, No. 5 seed.) Dennis Dixon will hand a 3-1 or 2-2 team to Ben Roethlisberger. The defense in Pittsburgh is back healthy and will be the primary reason that the Steelers will make the playoffs as a wild card. Circle your calendars for the Steelers’ matchup in Baltimore on Dec. 5. That’ll be a huge game.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7.) This team won’t be as good as they were for much as last year (the Bengals swept the division), but they won’t be as bad as they were down the stretch. Carson Palmer will have a nice year, but the Bengals need to stick with their bread and butter: Cedric Benson. There could be three playoff teams coming out of this division, but I’ll stay safe and just go with two teams.

4. Cleveland Browns (6-10.) Mike Holmgren will make the Browns competitive again in the not-so-distant future. But as for now, Cleveland fans will have to sit through a season of Jake Delhomme.

AFC East

1. New York Jets (10-6.) With all the hype this team has created by opening their mouths, the 2010 Jets could be the most unlikeable football team in recent memory. They will not come anywhere close to the hype, but they’ll still be a fine squad. Rex Ryan’s defense will play like a Rex Ryan defense usually does — which is to mean, it’ll play excellently. Notoriously overrated Mark Sanchez will take a few small steps forward, but won’t be nearly good enough to turn the Jets into the 13-3, Super Bowl winning team that the Jets think they’ll be. It’ll be the same formula for the Jets as it was last year — great defense and an offensive line that wears down opposing defenses. The quarterback isn’t good enough, though, to get this team over the hump.

2. New England Patriots (9-7.) Tom Brady will light it up this year. The defense will not.

3. Miami Dolphins (8-8.) If I had any guts, I’d take this team to win the division, but since I don’t have any guts, I’ll stay safe and go with an 8-8 record. I like Chad Henne. Brandon Marshall is awesome. Ronnie Brown is great when he’s healthy. They have a really good offensive line. The defense is getting better. You know what? I found my guts. Let’s re-do these AFC East standings:

1. Miami Dolphins (10-6, No. 4 seed.) This will come back to haunt me.

2. New York Jets (9-7.) The Jets were actually pretty average last year. And since my two buddies on my radio show are Jets fans, this second-place prediction will make them angry, so I have to do it, right?

3. New England Patriots (9-7.) Now that I’ve picked the Patriots to finish so low, Brady will go for 5,000+ yards this year.

4. Toronto Jake Lockers Buffalo Bills (1-15.) This team is awful. Worst team in the league. But maybe they’ll beat the Jets again, just like last year.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4, No. 1 seed) They’ll be resting their starters in Week 17 once again. Bob Sanders needs to stay healthy for this team to perform to its fullest capabilities, but there’s no one in this division that will challenge them. Look out for Pierre Garcon to have a breakout year.

2. Tennessee Titans (10-6, wild card, No. 6 seed.) I like this team a lot and have them going to the playoffs as a wild card. I think Vince Young will have the best year of his career to date, I think Chris Johnson is the most dynamic offensive player in the league (no shock there), and I think Jeff Fisher is one of the best coaches in the league. If Johnson stays healthy, I’m convinced the Titans are a playoff team. I don’t know if they’re as good as they were down the stretch last season, but they’re still going to be a damn good team.

3. Houston Texans (8-8.) I’m not entering that bandwagon again. Like most, I love Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, but I’m sick of every year being the year for the Texans to make the playoffs — and then it not happening.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12.) I don’t even know what to say about this team. I need help. I don’t even know why I think they’ll go 4-12 and finish last in the division.

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers (12-4, No. 2 seed.) This division should be a cake-walk for the Chargers, but I fully expect them to flame out in the divisional round of the playoffs once they come off of their first-round bye. Why? Because the San Diego is soft as a pillow. The Jets wore down the Chargers by the third quarter in San Diego’s lone playoff game, and it was a fairly accurate representation of the Chargers. Look, Philip Rivers can sling it around with the best of them. But when push comes to shove in the playoffs and opposing teams in the playoffs are willing to play smash mouth football, the Chargers come up soft.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9.) So the Notre Dame thing didn’t quite work out for Charlie Weis, but at least he’ll be getting compensated for the rest of his life by the school (or so it seems.) I love Weis in the NFL as an offensive coordinator, though – there’s not a whole lot of coaches in the NFL that can put together the kind of quality gameplans that Weis can. Weis will maximize the abilities of a backfield that incudes Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and will get every ounce of talent out of Matt Cassel. I sense a decent year for the Chiefs and something to build on for next year.

3. Oakland Raiders (7-9.) Jason Campbell’s sense of normalcy comes about in…Oakland? Really? But there’s no player that could benefit more from a change of scenery than Campbell, who has the ability to be a decent quarterback but never got a fair shot in the District due to a variety of factors, but the fact that he was in a new offense every year was probably the biggest factor. And for the first time in a long time, the Raiders had a good draft. Oakland’s on the upswing like Kansas City is — watch out for this division as early as next season.

4. Denver Broncos (6-10.) TIM TEBOW!!!!!!!

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers (13-3, No. 1 seed.) Ok, the Packers’ defense doesn’t look that good. But it won’t matter in the regular season, where Aaron Rodgers will put up insane numbers and the Packers’ offense will produce the most points of any team in the league. I love everything about this offense — Rodgers is a MVP-in-waiting, Jermichael Finley is ready to become the league’s best tight end, Greg Jennings will be a beast, and Donald Driver is a perfect safety valve for Rodgers. The Packers will roll to the No. 1 seed in the NFC by out-gunning everyone. We’ll see how their defense shapes up come playoff time.

2. Minnesota Vikings (8-8.) Yes, I think the drop-off between the Packers and the second-place Vikings is five games. The defense will be very good for the Vikings (as will Adrian Peterson), but I feel like this edition of Brett Favre isn’t going to end well. Just a hunch. I think Minnesota fans need to be geared up for a lot of frustrating games similar to the one seen on Thursday night against the Saints. And Brad Childress graduating from the Andy Reid School of Game Management will cost the Vikings a game or two.

3. Detroit Lions (7-9.) I like this team going forward. I like their coach, Jim Schwartz, and their quarterback, Matthew Stafford — and it all starts with the head coach and quarterback for any team that wants to be competitive year in and year out. And any Detroit fan should looking forward to opposing quarterbacks running for their collective lives in the presence of Ndamukong Suh. He’s going to be a beast from Week 1 on.

4. Chicago Bears (5-11.) I liked this team as my sleeper as little as two weeks ago…but now I don’t.

NFC East

1. New York Giants (11-5, No. 3 seed.) This seems like the classic kind-of-sneaking-up-on-everyone-but-not-really team. Look, everyone knows who the Giants are — they won the Super Bowl a few years ago and have Eli Manning under center. But in terms of football in New York, everyone’s talking about Rex Ryan and the Jets. And in terms of the NFC East, I’ve head a whole lot of Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins talk with some Kevin Kolb talk sprinkled in, but no New York Giants talk. I like the Giants to have a huge bounce-back year after a disappointing campaign last season. The Giants should be able to have a very balanced offensive attack, and I love their front seven. The Giants’ secondary did look dreadful against Baltimore in the third preseason game…but the preseason doesn’t matter, right?

2. Dallas Cowboys (10-6, wild card, No. 5 seed.) Tony Romo will put up some gaudy fantasy numbers this year (or so I hope — I have him in the fantasy league that I pay the most attention to), as will all of the Cowboys’ skill players on offense. And DeMarcus Ware may be the best defensive end in the game. But I expect Dallas to get smashed in Green Bay in the divisional round of the playoffs — it’ll their Minnesota experience last January all over again.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7.) I like the Eagles more than most, and I like Kevin Kolb a lot more than most. Kolb wasn’t ready to be a quality NFL quarterback last year, but I think he’ll fill in for Donovan McNabb just fine this year. I do think that DeSean Jackson will become less of a deep threat for the Eagles — Kolb doesn’t have the kind of arm McNabb has — but Jeremy Maclin will become a quality possession receiver for the Kolb, as will tight end Brent Celek. Kolb’s ready for this job now. As for the coach, Andy Reid, his players will always absolutely play hard for him. But Reid is one of the worst game managers in the entire league, which drives the Philadelphia fan base crazy and usually costs the Eagles dearly in a big game (Reid’s time management skills and the lack of balance on offense are both alarming.)

4. Washington Redskins (8-8.) Like Andy Reid’s players, Mike Shanahan’s players will definitely play hard for him, which was a quality that was missing from the Redskins last season. Shanahan’s presence — as well as new general manager Bruce Allen’s — adds respectability and an identity to a franchise that lacked any last year. Donovan McNabb is a significant upgrade over Jason Campbell, and I like Clinton Portis in Shanahan’s offense. The defense should be solid. But there’s not enough firepower on the perimeter for the Redskins – on top of their leaky offensive line – for me to predict anything more than an 8-8 season.

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints (11-5, No. 2 seed.) The Super Bowl champs will have a target on their backs all season, but there’s no reason why the Saints won’t win this division. They’re ready for another run at a Super Bowl.

2. Carolina Panthers (9-7, wild card, No. 6 seed.) Jimmy Clausen isn’t the starting quarterback, but I really like this kid. I watched a lot of Notre Dame games last year because my roommate from my freshman year of college loves Notre Dame and would watch them every Saturday. Let me tell you — nothing came easy for Clausen on the field during his days at Notre Dame. Charlie Weis’ play-calling abilities never translated over to the college level and Clausen’s offensive lines sucked. Clausen was always running for dear life and chucking the ball downfield to Golden Tate (because that was the extent of the Notre Dame offense.) I always liked how Clausen competed in college, he’s an accurate passer, he has a strong arm and is in a great situation in Carolina relative to the situations many rookie quarterbacks find themselves in. But that’s for next year. As for this year, I have no idea why Carolina is my wild card. Just a gut feeling.

3. Atlanta Falcons (7-9.) I know nothing about this team.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14.) I have no clue what to write.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers (10-6, No. 4 seed.) Winner by default. Could sweep the division. This division is horrid.

2. Arizona Cardinals (6-10.) Derek Anderson is horrible, but Matt Leinart was worse.

3. Seattle Seahawks (5-11.) Pete Carroll may one day become a successful NFL coach, but not right now.

4. St. Louis Rams (4-12.) Bradford hands off to Jackson…Bradford hands off to Jackson…

MVP: Chris Johnson…Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers…Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis…Coach of the Year: Jeff Fisher…Comeback Player of the Year: Jason Campbell.

Playoffs: Wild Card Round

Baltimore over Tennessee. Chris Johnson nearly carries the Titans to the divisional round all by himself.

Pittsburgh over Miami. The Dolphins can’t stop Ben Roethlisberger in a game that the Steelers take full control of by the third quarter.

New York Giants over Carolina. The Giants’ front seven stuffs the Panthers’ rushing attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Dallas over San Francisco. I can’t trust Alex Smith.

Divisional Round

Indianapolis over Baltimore. It’s the same old, same old song and dance…Peyton Manning beats the Ravens.

Pittsburgh over San Diego. Remember when I wrote that the Chargers are as soft as a pillow? Yeah, that.

Green Bay over Dallas. Remember when I wrote that the Cowboys would get smashed in Green Bay in the divisional round? Yeah, that.

New Orleans over New York Giants. Drew Brees out-guns Eli Manning in an entertaining game that includes plenty of passing yards.

Championship Sunday

Green Bay over New Orleans. I want 90+ points in this game. In the freezing cold in Green Bay.

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh. The Colts’ defense gives Peyton Manning enough time to figure out the Steelers’ defense, and then it’s all over once he does.

Super Bowl

Indianapolis over Green Bay. In an incredibly entertaining Super Bowl, Peyton Manning doesn’t make the crucial mistake this time. Instead, he gets his second ring. Super Bowl MVP: Peyton Manning. Duh.