It’s that time of year again — someone has to go to the all-star game. Orioles fans are now trying to figure out who on the team is most deserving of an all-star selection and who will actually go to the game. Because, you know, someone has to go. And for whatever reason, the all-star game counts for home field advantage in the all-star game, which, as we all know, is ridiculously stupid.
The Orioles have three candidates for the all-star selection: J.J. Hardy, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones. Anyone who has watched even just a handful of games would say that those three have been the club’s best players. Each of the three have been about two-win players so far, according to FanGraphs (although Hardy has provided his value in significantly less plate appearances than either Wieters or Jones since he missed a month).
This year, the Orioles even have a player who’s actually deserving of an all-star game visit in Hardy. (It’s a foreign concept, I know.) If the American League needs a shortstop, Hardy will go. If Ron Washington wants a catcher, Wieters will go. And if Washington wants an extra outfielder, Jones will go. Simple as that. Whatever Oriole goes will be based on need.
Hardy has been the Orioles’ best player and is the club’s most deserving all-star even though he doesn’t even have enough plate appearances to qualify to be on a big league leaderboard. Hardy is batting .307/.369/.547 in 215 plate appearances. His .394 wOBA* would be second among big league shortstops if he qualified, and first among American League shortstops. His fWAR is lower than players like Asdrubal Cabrera and Alexei Ramirez because those players have played a good bit more.
*I realize that players and managers probably don’t look at wOBA and fWAR when selecting all-stars. But it’s easiest for me to sort through the candidates using all-encompassing statistics.
Hardy’s greatest roadblock to getting named to the all-star game is that Derek Jeter will get voted the starter. If Jeter is healthy at the time of the all-star game, he’ll start at shortstop and block a more deserving American League shortstop. Deserving shortstops include Hardy, Cabrera, Ramirez and Jhonny Peralta. Hardy could get squeezed out if Jeter takes up a spot. It looks like Jeter will be back in the Yankees lineup soon, so he should be good to go for the all-star game start.
Next up is Wieters, the defensive stalwart behind the dish for the Orioles. He ranks fourth among qualifying big league catchers in fWAR (1.8), based largely on his defense. Wieters is second among American League catchers in fWAR behind Alex Avila of Detroit (2.7). FanGraphs rates Wieters as the best defensive catcher in terms of defensive runs saved (nine) and stolen base runs saved (four). Wieters is throwing out nearly 43 percent of attempted base-stealers. With the bat, though, Wieters remains a work in progress. He’s hitting .257/.310/.398 and his .313 wOBA is tied for seventh-best among 11 qualifying catchers.
Russell Martin will probably start the game for the American League, with Avila certainly deserving of a backup spot. The guess here is that Wieters gets the nod to go to the all-star game for the Orioles as the third catcher behind Martin and Avila.
Adam Jones (.290/.334/.481) has an outside shot to represent the Orioles at the all-star game, but his issue is mainly that there are so many good outfielders out there. He ranks sixth among qualifying American League center fielders in fWAR (1.6), while he’s third in wOBA (.357). He is tied for 13th in fWAR among all qualifying American League outfielders, while he is 11th in wOBA. There are just too many good outfielders for Jones to make it this year.
Hardy is probably the most deserving of the all-star selection, but Wieters probably fits onto the roster better so that’s why I believe Wieters will represent the Orioles in Arizona. Hopefully Wieters will throw out five base-stealers and hit a home run, just for kicks.