It’s mid-July. The Orioles’ season has by now gone into the tank, like too many seasons before it around this time during the season. Camden Yards remains a beautiful ballpark, yet the reasons for visiting it are dwindling for the vast majority of fans due to the product on the field deteriorating wildly before our eyes. But the hope of what might be still remains, and that begins with the kids currently down on the farm.
It’s not a great farm system; it’s no better than a middle of the pack system once Dylan Bundy signs, and it might be a bottom-third system at the moment. But two high-ceiling talents lead the farm system, and there are a handful of promising talents behind those two. I asked Jason A. Churchill (@ProspectInsider) to comment on the Orioles’ farm system and organization in general. He’s very interactive on Twitter, so definitely follow him. He’ll answer all of the prospect questions you could possibly have. You can read this work on Prospect Insider. He contributes to ESPN.com’s MLB draft blog. Without further ado, let’s get to Churchill’s thoughts. A big thank you to Churchill for spending some time to talk O’s.
Manny Machado entered the season with a mountain of expectations. This season is the first since he received a huge bonus as the third overall pick in the 2010 draft. He’s had ridiculous Alex Rodriguez comparisons slapped on him. He’s been labeled the future star shortstop for the Baltimore Orioles. Yet, Machado has met expectations – perhaps even exceeding them – as a teenager.
Machado hit .276/.376/.483 at Delmarva, putting up monster numbers before a knee injury sidelined him for a month. He cooled off after he returned from injury. He was promoted to Frederick in June, where he’s hitting .218/.323/.345 in limited plate appearances. It’s now up to Machado to make the necessary adjustments in order to succeed at High-A as a 19-year-old.
“From what I have seen and have discussed with scouts, Machado simply needs [to] continue to work, make the small adjustments and grow,” wrote Churchill in an e-mail. “If he stays focused these little changes will just be progress: pitch recognition, staying patient when he struggles, not taking offensive slumps into [the shortstop position], things of that nature.”
Questions have been raised about the ability of the 6-foot-3, 185 pound Machado to stay at shortstop once he fills out, but those questions are now being asked less and less frequently. Churchill is confident that Machado will stay at short, where his offensive production will be most valuable.
“Even as he fills out physically, I see him sticking at short,” Churchill wrote. “The feet are quick, his hands are above average and his arm strength will never be in question. At that position, repetition is a big part of it and the more he works on the turns and feeds at second, the better he’ll get — and he’s already pretty darned good. The actions are easy and smooth and anyone that suggests third base right now is just taking the safe road — but they’ll be wrong.”
Despite the young shortstop’s talent – he was recently ranked by Keith Law as the fifth-best prospect in baseball – Churchill says that Orioles fans need to be patient with Machado as he learns how to make adjustments on the fly as he paves his path to the big leagues.
“Machado is likely to have problems at the plate at some point and to some extent, likely in Double-A, which seemingly will come at age 19 or 20,” wrote Churchill. “This will be the big test and he may not skate through the league. O’s fans should be patient with him if and when this occurs.
“I see him hitting the big leagues as early as June 2013, and he’s advanced enough right now to suggest he may not need a return to the minors once he tastes the majors.”
Machado is often talked about in the same breath as Jonathan Schoop, a 19-year-old infielder signed out of Curacao in 2008. That Machado and Schoop were the two players from the Orioles’ organization to make the trip to Arizona for the Futures Game did nothing to dissuade how often the two are linked. Schoop appeared in top-10 Orioles prospect lists this winter after solid showings in the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League in 2010.
Schoop then began 2011 in Delmarva, where he hit .316/.376/.514 and earned a promotion to Frederick. He’s currently hitting .211/.256/.263 in the Carolina League in 114 at-bats, but Schoop’s prospect status around the game is now quite high – he came in at No. 38 on Law’s top-50 list.
“Schoop’s lead tool his improved ability to hit for average and his power, which may project as above average right now,” Churchill wrote. “It doesn’t hurt that he’s a good athlete with a strong arm and soft hands. He may need to move off shortstop, despite being a solid-average defender there at present, perhaps better.
“I don’t see Schoop moving at the pace Machado does, as his tools come up just a bit short, though his feel for the game is there and there isn’t one single poor physical tool of which to speak, including his speed, which is about average.”
Schoop, a natural shortstop, has been playing mostly second base for Frederick to make room for Machado, though most think Schoop (6-foot-1, 187) will fill out to the point that third base is the most likely long-term destination for him. Churchill, though, would keep Schoop and Machado at different affiliates for now so the shortstop position can remain an option for Schoop.
“I’d make sure he and Machado don’t play on the same roster until Schoop is within a year or so of the big leagues, at which time I’d move him off short permanently,” wrote Churchill. “In the meantime, more third base, and perhaps some outfield may be in order. The best bet is the hot corner, but leaving short and second as an option is the smart move.”
Another player in the O’s farm system that has seen his stock rise in terms of production and publicity is 2008 eighth-rounder Bobby Bundy, a right-handed starting pitcher for Frederick. After two up-and-down, injury-plagued years in Bluefield and Delmarva, Bundy, 21, is finally completely healthy and has broken out for the Keys. Bundy has a 3.31 ERA in the Carolina League in 116.0 innings pitched, striking out 82 and walking 29. Bundy was also in the news earlier because his brother, Dylan, was drafted by the Orioles with the fourth overall selection in June’s draft.
“Bundy has been 90-93, toughing as high as 95, at least in front of the scouts with which I have had conversations with,” wrote Churchill. “There is occasional arm-side run and sink, but does show some late life. The curveball, which he varies between 77 and 81 mph, has depth and at times is an above-average pitch, and has been the difference this season versus last. The change is spotty, which is typical for most 21-year-old prospects, but he will throw it to lefties to keep them off his fastball, and shows good arm speed and some deception.
“He’s physical, like his younger brother, but is taller — a true 6-foot-2 — and attacks hitters, looking to spot his fastball on both sides of the plate. His control has taken another small step forward this season, but his command within the zone still needs some work. Two chief scouts profile him as a No. 4 starter, but in the game video I have I see more there, and if it comes down to work ethic, he’ll make it happen.”
Bundy could continue performing well at Frederick and force a promotion, but Churchill says that there’s no reason to rush him.
“As for his development path, I’d keep him at High-A for now, but a late-season shove to Double-A Bowie shouldn’t be out of the question, especially if he could taste some postseason experience,” wrote Churchill. “Workload would be my only concern there.”
If Machado and Schoop are now lumped together by Orioles fans, then so are LJ Hoes and Xavier Avery, who both play for Bowie. A third round selection in 2008, Hoes is a Bowie native currently playing for the Baysox. Hoes, 21, was promoted to Bowie despite hitting .241/.297/.342 in 158 at-bats in Frederick this year. Hoes is currently hitting .302/.354/.352 at Bowie. The main issue for Hoes is that while he can hit, his lack of power limits the positions where his bat could play in an everyday role and he doesn’t even have a set position at the moment. He’s played second, third and the outfield this year.
“Hoes is still improving at second and generally gets fringe grades, but with some optimism attached,” wrote Churchill. “He has the arm to play in a corner, but won’t hit for power and needs to stay at second to project as a regular. Center field could be another option, but he’s not getting any time there in Double-A, possibly due to 50 speed and agility grades.
“He has the strength to develop legit gap power but isn’t there yet, and some if that is in the swing plane and his lack of loft and leverage.”
Avery, meantime, is the everyday center fielder for Bowie at 21 years old. Avery is hitting .264/.317/.346 with 26 steals (he has been caught 11 times). He’s also struck out 99 times in 356 at-bats. The 2008 second rounder and former University of Georgia football recruit hasn’t yet been able to convert his ample physical tools into performance on the field.
“Avery I saw in the Sally League and it appears not much has changed since then,” wrote Churchill. “He’s still working on the approach and is often caught backwards; he tries to work the count at times, only to find himself behind often, passing up pitches he could have handled, while other times he’s aggressive and ends up swinging at the pitcher’s pitch — usually breaking balls.
“Avery is full of tools and above average bat speed and he pulls his hips through well. But he’s often out front early and doesn’t get to the outer half consistently, both problems that magnify significantly versus left-handers. He’s still very raw, even defensively, but if the O’s stay patient he could be a late bloomer. The hit tool is the biggest concern as he lacks satisfactory contact rates and doesn’t use his plus speed as well as he could.”
In Aberdeen, one of a handful of players of interest is Connor Narron, who was signed to an over-slot bonus as the Orioles’ fifth round selection in 2010. Currently hitting .225/.373/.270, Narron is walking a ton (19 walks as opposed to 16 strikeouts) but he isn’t hitting for power and has had some issues defensively at third base. Narron (6-foot-3, 195) was a shortstop in high school. Narron’s father, Jerry, played and managed in the big leagues and is now the bench coach for the Milwaukee Brewers.
“He’s strong, knows the strike zone and is very disciplined, but has below-average hands and probably ends up in the outfield,” wrote Churchill. “He’s a worker and a smart player with good baseball makeup which should help him stay on track for a big league career, but most scouts don’t love the swing and Narron is susceptible on the inner half. His swing mechanics are fine, but he loads up deep sometimes, and due to a lack of top bat speed such a flaw will likely hinder his ability to handle better pitching, so there’s work to do.”
Churchill says he feels better about the Orioles’ farm system than this time last year even though Zach Britton is no longer a prospect. “Machado has some track record now,” wrote Churchill. “Schoop has proven last year was not a fluke. I’m intrigued some by Joe Mahoney and Trent Mummey should probably be challenged again in August.”
Churchill also singled out 18-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez, signed out of Venezuela in 2010, as one of the players to watch in the Orioles’ Rookie Leagues. A left-handed pitcher who has struck out 20 in 17 innings in the Gulf Coast League, Rodriguez “has above-average velocity for a lefty and has some projection in his 6-3, 180-pound frame,” according to Churchill.
With that being said, the Orioles’ system is imbalanced – there’s not much talent at Double-A or Triple-A – and is currently the fifth-best system in the AL East. And of course, the Orioles have glaring deficiencies within their organization in terms of acquiring young talent internationally. Churchill is one of the many folks who believe the Orioles have to step up their presence internationally in an effort to inject more talent into the system. But Churchill says they don’t necessarily have to be shelling out top dollar to international free agents.
“The first move is to get a Venezuelan Summer League affiliate if they can, and to spend to hire the best [Latin American] scouts they possibly can,” wrote Churchill. “But the Tampa Bay Rays, who have the top farm system in baseball right now, don’t do much down there, either, and they continue to find and develop talent on a regular basis, even since they started winning games and drafting outside the top 10.
“In the end, however, yes, I would jump into the international market some, because I do not believe in ignoring any avenues to acquire talent, but I wouldn’t be among the most aggressive clubs handing out the bigger bonuses.”
Churchill also had an interesting take on the Orioles’ most pressing issue right now – the ability to develop young talent within the organization. While most point to the player development chain – including yours truly – Churchill points to a simpler explanation.
“The O’s issues start and end with bad luck, in my opinion,” wrote Churchill. “Brian Matusz’s current issues, Matt Wieters developing much slower offensively than everyone on the planet inside and outside the Orioles organization believed, the stagnated development of Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta … it happens, but that’s a lot to have happened to one organization.”
All statistics are as of Thursday, July 14′s results.