I’m writing this a few hours before the deadline, so I apologize if I post this right before the Orioles make another trade, but at this point, I don’t expect any more deals to go down. I expect Jeremy Guthrie and Jim Johnson to stay put, although the Orioles should probably move Guthrie for the best package of prospects they can find right now. But the Orioles apparently view Guthrie as being more valuable than he actually is due to the innings he eats for them. (Guthrie is a solid starter in any rotation but obviously shouldn’t be viewed as a No. 1 or 2 starter in terms of trade value.)
I’d look into trading Guthrie in the off-season because at 32 (and 33 next year), Guthrie has probably begun to decline in terms of skills and production. I wouldn’t be comfortable paying Guthrie the $8 million-plus in his final arbitration year when I could find a pitcher to produce something close to Guthrie’s typical ERA at or close to minimum salary.
Anyhow, the first trade that went down yesterday sent Koji Uehara, one of the best relievers in the big leagues this year, to the Texas Rangers for first baseman Chris Davis and right-handed pitcher Tommy Hunter. Uehara, as long as he holds up in the Texas heat, will be of assistance to the Rangers the last two months of the season and, presumably, in the post-season. Uehara recorded video game numbers out of the bullpen, striking out 11.87 batters per nine innings and walking just 1.53. I’ll miss seeing Uehara throw his ultra-deceptive 88-89 mph heater past hitters, along with his splitter that falls off the table. The Orioles’ first venture into the Japanese market was successful one – once Uehara was pitching into the bullpen, he thrived. (Although he should’ve been the closer this year.)
In getting Davis and Hunter as the return, I feel that the Orioles are misguided. This is a return that is meant to help the Orioles be less terrible in 2012 and 2013, whereas they could have plucked from the Rangers’ insanely deep farm system to help prop up the farm system. I would have much preferred the Orioles to pick up a high-ceiling pitcher or two from the Rangers’ lower levels rather than this return, which reeks of short-term thinking.
The Orioles should be looking for prospects that have the opportunity to make an impact at the big league level at the same time that Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy begin contributing. Barring something unforeseen, we know what Davis and Hunter are – Davis, a Quad-A player and Hunter, an inventory arm – whereas the Orioles could have shot for higher ceiling.
And who knows? Maybe Davis and Hunter were the best options the Orioles had on the table. Maybe the Rangers and other teams refused to include any high-ceiling arms in their lower levels. But for perhaps the best reliever on the trade market, I doubt that, and it seems as if the Orioles actually targeted these particular players rather than thinking long-term. I speculated along with others on Twitter that this trade has Buck Showalter’s fingerprints on it, in so much that Showalter isn’t interested in entering 2012 and 2013 in full rebuilding mode and pushed general manager Andy MacPhail to trade for pieces that can help him marginally right now.
With that being said, a player like Davis is exactly the kind of player the Orioles should be taking a chance on – but not in exchange for the team’s top trade chip. Davis is a player that has mashed in Triple-A, but has faltered badly in limited opportunities in the big leagues. Davis will get about 200 plate appearances the rest of the season at first base, with no one blocking him given the trade of Lee to Pittsburgh.
If Davis proves to be a solid big league first baseman the opportunities he’s given – the rest of this season and perhaps all of next season – I will have been proven wrong about this trade. But the chance that happens appear slim, as Davis (a .248/.300/.455 hitter and a 31.7 percent strikeout rate in nearly 1,000 big league plate appearances in parts of four seasons) seems to be entrenched pretty clearly as a Quad-A player. But if Davis plays well enough to convince the Orioles not to waste a bunch of money on a first baseman this winter, that’ll be a positive. Hunter (5.10 strikeouts per nine innings in 266.1 career innings) also is what he is, and probably isn’t going to improve.
The Lee trade was essentially to make room for Davis (and also as a salary dump), so there’s not a lot to analyze, especially since it’s a non-prospect heading to Baltimore in exchange. The Uehara trade was better than standing pat and holding onto a 36-year-old reliever (no matter how much we all love him), but the Orioles’ philosophy in identifying trade targets appears misguided.
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All-in-all, I think the Orioles got a solid return on this one. It may not be the greatest deal in the world, but at the very least we *could* have two solid players fill holes in our system at first base and starting pitching. If one somehow pans out and becomes an everyday player than ill be happy, if both, that’s a bonus.
Yes, we have no idea what the Orioles wanted in return for Koji, but my sense is they didn’t want the high ceiling prospects. Thinking of course, the prospects might not turn out and they know what they are getting in Davis/Hunter as opposed to the unknown potential player. That being said, I do think Texas held the cards to an extent in this trade since they have such a deep system they could afford to part with a player who is blocked and a starter who doesn’t have a spot in the rotation. The Orioles want to try to win NOW, as opposed to in 2014-15. So that they may mean winning 75 games instead of 60 games, if all is executed correctly.
As Chris Stoner stated (http://www.orioleshangout.com/blog/chris-corner/319/a-reversal-of-thinking-) and I largely agree with it (as I saw you did as well), don’t expect a complete rebuilding project. I came to the conclusion a few weeks ago and which I really should have a year ago, the decision to go with what we got and add on (as opposed to acquiring high ceiling prospects) was made when they hired Buck last year. If they wanted to go a different route, they would not have hired him. I don’t think he would have come here for a complete demolition and build-up. You saw this, this winter with the Reynolds/DLee moves, among other ones. It is what it is and as we both know, we can complain about it all we want but that’s not changing. As long as the current regime is in place, Angelos included, the philosophy of the front office, no matter who is in charge of the baseball operations will not completely dismantle the system IMO.
I think you hit the nail on the head trading a 36 year old set-up man is better than standing pat. And in Koji’s case with his health history, it’s probably better than holding out until the offseason and/or next trading deadline. He was absolutely solid, a fun player to watch and *sadly* our biggest trading chip, actually pathetic is more like it. Of course, who is going to be able to get the HOLDS on our way to a possible triple digit loss season?
Since I know you aren’t the fondest of the Orioles player development personnel, I must say I’m surprised you didn’t mention the fact that, they *might* screw up the potential high ceiling players had they gotten them in return.