Looking ahead to the winter: Five questions about the Orioles 25-man roster

Trying to figure out what a baseball team should do and what a baseball team will do with their 25-man roster over an off-season is always an interesting exercise, based partly on the fact that fans have to try to see through the prism of a front office, and it can be quite difficult for us on the outside to view situations similarly to those actually making the decisions. For Orioles fans, though, it’s really strange to think ahead to this winter’s impending moves because we do not yet know who the general manager will be. Speculation is rampant that Andy MacPhail is not planning to return as the general manager; if he was, we probably would have some sort of idea of the direction he would lead this winter, for better or worse.

Whoever takes over as general manager – and as I’ve stated before, I’d love for John Coppolella of the Atlanta Braves to get a look – will have major decisions to make on the 25-man roster alone. Part of the decision-making process will ultimately be based on whether the man in charge believes the core the Orioles currently have in place – Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, J.J. Hardy and the young pitching – is good enough to contend in the American League East.

And that’s where it gets tricky.

Take a highly-qualified candidate like Coppolella, for instance. He’s likely to look at the core the Orioles have in place and not be terribly convinced that the Orioles can compete with that. He would probably want to tear that down and start from scratch, trading away what valuable current pieces the Orioles do have to help restore a middle-of-the-pack farm system. He’d articulate that plan to the Orioles brass – i.e. mainly Peter Angelos and Buck Showalter – during the interview process. Would Angelos and Showalter really hire someone that wants to tear down the current core? Seems unlikely.

Or would they bring in someone that has the faulty notion that the Orioles actually can compete with that core because Showalter and Angelos don’t want to tear it all down? I don’t know for sure. I’d hope Angelos and Showalter have the long-term vision to embrace a thorough rebuild, but I’m not expecting to see such a vision, especially after a series of moves this year highlighted by the Vladimir Guerrero signing.

The organization seems to be in no hurry to truly rebuild. Andy MacPhail tried to rebuild and seemed at least moderately successful in doing so at first, helping to infuse the organization with much-needed young talent. There seemed to be a concerted effort to allow the young kids on the big league team to play every day, giving them a chance to improve and enter themselves into the club’s long-term plans. Then it all sort of came to a halt before 2010, with the first red flag being giving up a draft pick to sign Mike Gonzalez.

That proved to just be an appetizer for the 2011 season, in which the club gladly signed and played declining veterans over younger, cheaper talent. Whether MacPhail just got impatient with his own plan or he was pushed by ownership and marketing to “win now” in 2011, we’ll probably never know. Maybe hiring Showalter signaled the “end” of rebuilding. I don’t know.

What I do know is that the next general manager has major decisions to make on the 25-man roster. Again, we don’t know what kind of philosophy the next GM will bring – win now or tear down – so we’ll approach the off-season with an open mind. Here we go…

1. Extend or trade Adam Jones?

It wasn’t too long ago that Jones was looked upon as one of the key cogs for the Orioles’ rebuilding program. Maybe he still is – I’m not totally sure. Here’s what we do know: Jones has made serious progress this year with the bat, although a big issue the three years before this season remains an issue. His first three years as an Oriole resulted in a solid yet unspectacular .278/.324/.434 combined batting line, but upside remained due to his physical tools.

What was mainly holding him back at the plate was poor plate discipline and/or pitch recognition. Jones produced walk rates of 4.5%, 6.9% and 3.7% in his first three years in Baltimore, but perhaps a bigger issue was that he found himself in so many pitchers counts because he swung at so much crap. Jones wasn’t allowing his well above-average raw hitting ability to shine because he was in so many 0-2 and 1-2 counts. That left him susceptible to more breaking stuff out of the zone that he had trouble identifying as such.

But Jones has markedly improved his ability to lay off the breaking stuff out of the zone and his strike zone judgment in general, which has meant more hitters counts – i.e., Jones now gets more fastballs to turn on. The result is an improved .290/.327/.478 line with 22 homers before the end of August. Though I hoped Jones’ walk rate would improve markedly this year, it has not. Jones will likely never walk even an average amount in any season, but that’s more or less what he is; trying to change Jones so he takes more walks may hurt other parts of his game that he excels in, such as attacking fastballs early in the count.

So we’re left to ponder whether this year is a sign of things to come in the future or whether 2011 will be an outlier in terms of offensive production. Will Jones revert to his form of the previous three years? Will he continue to progress? Or will he sit around this offensive production (~.350 wOBA) for the next handful of seasons?

Jones’ other issue is whether he’s a center fielder long-term – UZR has him as being below-average in center for the last three seasons. My theory on this is that Jones has always gotten poor jumps and taken poor routes to batted balls, but he no longer has the speed he had as a rookie to make up for those poor jumps and routes. Players tend to peak early in their careers defensively.

The only way the Orioles should even consider extending Jones is if they still think he’s a center fielder because Jones’ bat wouldn’t play well in a corner, at least as of now. If the Orioles want to extend Jones even with the knowledge that he’s not a center fielder long-term, they’d be betting his production at the plate continues to grow, because that’d be the only way he’d be a significantly valuable piece for a contending team down the road. That’s a risky proposition that I wouldn’t be comfortable, and a trade would probably be a better option.

Thus, if the next Orioles brain-trust is of the mindset that Jones is a corner outfielder long-term, Jones is a very viable trade candidate. The Orioles could probably coax the Godfather offer from a team that still views Jones as a five-tool center fielder.

Either way, the Orioles would be foolish not to look into trading Jones this off-season because they’re not going to contend in the next two years, which are the last years of Jones’ cost-controlled salaries. Jones’ trade value will not be higher than it is right now with those two cost-controlled years left. The Orioles’ farm system could get a huge shot in the arm with the potential haul Jones could bring back. Someone of Coppolella’s mold would probably look into this.

But I suspect it’s much more likely that the Orioles, if the current way of thinking stays in place, look into extending Jones as the long-term center fielder of the team, assuming Jones and his representation would be interested. If Jones signs a sizeable extension (four years and in the neighborhood of $30 to $40 million), he could feasibly revert back to 2008-2010 form at the plate. The last thing the Orioles need is to invest in another long-term extension for a player and see significant regression from that player, a la Nick Markakis.

With the current question marks around Jones’ game – whether his offensive production this year is actually a sign of things to come (even without sufficient walk rates) and whether he’s good enough defensively to stay in center – would make me very, very nervous about an extension for Jones. A trade may well be in the interest of the club, though I doubt that’s the direction they’ll go in.

2. To what extent should the Orioles rely on their young pitchers in 2012?

Easily the most disappointing aspect of the Orioles’ season has been the stagnation and/or regression of the young pitchers they counted on to take them to the next level. Zach Britton has been the most successful of the young guys this year but has taken significant lumps, Brian Matusz is a totally different pitcher than what we saw last year, Jake Arrieta had season-ending elbow surgery, and Chris Tillman has stagnated.*

*In fact, of the pitchers called up in 2009, David Hernandez is having the best year of the bunch. Unfortunately, he’s with Arizona. Moving from the AL East to NL West certainly helped Hernandez. But the fact that Hernandez – not exactly the most well thought of pitcher in the “Cavalry” – is having the best season of the crew brings up more questions about the organization’s player development, especially with pitchers.

Some might say to bring in a veteran arm to provide stability. But Britton, Matusz, Arrieta and to a lesser extent, Tillman, are the players the organization had more or less depended on as the keys of the rebuilding plan. The only way they’ll ultimately get better in the big leagues is by pitching against big league hitters, and the organization can’t afford to block them with more expensive alternatives. Banishing them to the minors upon failure serves no purpose.

Britton has to be penciled into the 2012 rotation as of now, but a young pitcher’s status can change quickly. Matusz was in Britton’s approximate spot this time last year, and we see what kind of disastrous year Matusz has had. I think Arrieta is probably penciled into the 2012 rotation as well despite an ERA slightly north of 5.00 this year. His strikeouts rose from 4.66 per nine in 2010 to 7.01 this year, which is at least encouraging.

The hope is that Arrieta can hold his command and stuff deeper into games next year with his elbow issues resolved. I still think Arrieta might be bullpen-bound long-term (where he can max out his fastball and slider), but the Orioles should still give him 30 starts next year and see where they stand.

After that, it gets murkier. Matusz struggles to hold his velocity and command even into the middle innings of a game these days, and once he loses either, the balls start sailing over the fence. Matusz has always been a flyball pitcher – even dating back to his college days – but that doesn’t explain his struggles this year. His velocity is down to the point where he has very little margin for error, so when he has the slightest command issues, he gets hammered.

Matusz has to work this off-season to get his conditioning and strength back to where he was before the back injury so he can hold a low-90’s fastball late into games, which would make his low-80’s changeup much more effective. Higher velocity would also allow Matusz to use more of the plate because these days, he absolutely has to stay on the black. That’s a tough way for anyone to be successful.

Matusz likely knows that he has to get stronger and better conditioned over the off-season. He’ll hopefully come to spring training with his “old stuff” back, but until that happens, it’s very difficult to know what to expect from him next year. I assume Tillman will begin 2012 in Norfolk, and the Orioles will see where they are this time next season with him in terms of thinking about a potential shift to the bullpen to see if his old velocity can come back in short bursts.

My guess is Britton, Arrieta and Matusz start 2012 in the rotation, as they should. After that, who knows? The Orioles would be wise to try to find a suitor for Jeremy Guthrie.* Alfredo Simon and Tommy Hunter could start in the bullpen and be nice depth pieces to move into the rotation when a starter gets hurt. Maybe the organization views Hunter and Simon as starters. Maybe there will be some bargains to be had in the free agent market. But the club can’t block its young starters. Britton, Arrieta and Matusz have to get 30 starts at the big league level next year.

**Guthrie’s final year of arbitration is 2012. The Orioles could pay the expensive price of that year (upwards of $8 million to $10 million), trade him for not much, or non-tender him. Guthrie is a nice arm to have around to provide innings, especially for a team like the Orioles, but paying that kind of arbitration price tag for a pitcher not likely to waver too much from his career norms of a 4.20 ERA and 4.69 FIP doesn’t seem terribly prudent. Tommy Hunter, for instance — for all his warts — could probably put up a mid-4.00’s ERA next year at near league minimum salary.

3. Will Mark Reynolds be the everyday first baseman in 2012?

Before I go on any longer, signing Prince Fielder to a really long contract would be really stupid and I doubt the Orioles would be the highest bidders for his services anyhow. The Orioles are not one Prince Fielder away from making any significant dent in the standings in the next two or three years, which are likely to be Fielder’s best years of a potential eight year deal. The Orioles should direct additional funds towards the amateur side of the business (both domestically and internationally) rather than pay Fielder enormous gobs of cash.

Anyhow, the Orioles have been experimenting with Reynolds at first base recently, and defensively, it’s gone much better at first than at third. Reynolds’ bat doesn’t play nearly well enough at first base to stick there long-term, but for a rebuilding team looking for a non-horrible option at first base during the down years, Reynolds is a fine option. I wouldn’t anticipate Reynolds’ $11 million club option for 2013 being picked up, though.

4. So then what do the Orioles do at third base?

The Orioles actually have long-term options at this position, including two potential high impact players in Jonathan Schoop and Nicky Delmonico***. Schoop’s long-term position is still in question – mostly due to questions about how big he’ll get – but third base remains an option for him in the future even though he’s been playing second base for Frederick.

***Delmonico was a huge signing for Joe Jordan. The system badly needed more high-ceiling position players, and Delmonico is exactly that. I’d like to see Jordan, or whoever the next scouting director is, with the budgetary flexibility in future drafts to pick the best players in each round regardless of cost so more Delmonico-types can enter the system. Regarding Schoop, have you seen his August numbers? He’s hitting .349/.384/.557 in August after struggling mightily in June and July as a 19-year-old in the college heavy Carolina League. Schoop’s performance this year between Delmarva and Frederick has been a major bright spot for an organization lacking them. We can only hope that there’s another international prospect who will break out next year. Some candidates from this year’s O’s GCL squad include Gabriel Lino (catcher, Venezuela), Roderick Bernadina (right fielder, Curacao), Eduardo Rodriguez (left-handed starter, Venezuela) and Miguel Chalas (right-handed starter, Dominican Republic). The Orioles don’t devote nearly enough resources internationally, but their scouts have found some legit, under the radar players in Schoop, Lino, Bernadina, Rodriguez, Chalas and a few others.

Jason Esposito, this year’s second rounder, is a third baseman out of Vanderbilt who may have become the organization’s best defender at the hot corner the moment he signed. There are questions about his ability to hit in pro ball, especially for power, and those will begin to be answered next year.

Anyway, back to 2012. I’ve maintained throughout the season that a key factor in the young pitching performing the way it has is the quality of the defense behind them; Reynolds was certainly leading that charge at third base. Aside from Hardy and Matt Wieters, who on the 25-man roster was a plus defender for the majority of the season? Probably Derrek Lee, but defenders at first base usually have limited impact.

Reynolds and Jones rate well below average at their positions over their careers. Markakis’ range isn’t what it used to be. The lack of a steady second baseman hurts. Add it all up, and the Orioles rank dead-last in team UZR this year (-46.1). Baseball Prospectus has the Orioles among the worst in the league in converting balls in play into outs.

The Orioles have allowed 5.21 runs per game this year****. The most efficient way to chop down on that number over the off-season is not by spending a bunch of money on pitching, but to aid the young pitchers by trotting out as good a defense behind them as you can. As the Rays have found out, this can also be done in a cost-efficient manner.

****If 5.21 runs per game seems like a lot of runs, that’s because it is.

It starts with third base, where a good defender would be a great service to Britton, a left-handed sinkerballer. None of Arrieta, Matusz and Britton miss a lot of bats*****, so they have to have a good defense behind them to help them out. No one on the potential free agent third base list seems particularly appealing in this regard so the Orioles might have to get creative via trade to find a good glove on the cheap at the hot corner.

*****In the draft, I think the organization needs to add more high-ceiling arms that project to miss bats. There just aren’t many pitchers in the system who miss a ton of bats. The AL East is brutal for pitchers and the best (only?) way to survive is to generate a lot of swings and misses. The amateur budget needs to be expanded in order to allow the scouting department to find more Parker Bridwell-types in later rounds – high ceiling arms who can miss bats but fall in the draft due to price tags. Toronto in recent years has been all over these types of pitchers; the Orioles need to join them.

The Orioles also figure to have a hole at second base with Brian Roberts’ recurring injury issues. Here’s a name to consider for second base that some already have: Mark Ellis. Ellis has always been a well above-average defender at second base, even if his bat is kind of terrible at this point. Ellis would come at a cheap salary and would be a solid option if and when Roberts succumbs to injury next season.

5. Will Nolan Reimold be the everyday left fielder in 2012?

I hope so. Dude deserves a full 650+ plate appearances without having to look over his shoulder every time he strikes out.

All statistics are as of August 29′s 30′s results.