Image: © Keith Allison, Flickr

Trying to figure out what a baseball team should do and what a baseball team will do with their 25-man roster over an off-season is always an interesting exercise, based partly on the fact that fans have to try to see through the prism of a front office, and it can be quite difficult for us on the outside to view situations similarly to those actually making the decisions. For Orioles fans, though, it’s really strange to think ahead to this winter’s impending moves because we do not yet know who the general manager will be. Speculation is rampant that Andy MacPhail is not planning to return as the general manager; if he was, we probably would have some sort of idea of the direction he would lead this winter, for better or worse.

Whoever takes over as general manager – and as I’ve stated before, I’d love for John Coppolella of the Atlanta Braves to get a look – will have major decisions to make on the 25-man roster alone. Part of the decision-making process will ultimately be based on whether the man in charge believes the core the Orioles currently have in place – Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, J.J. Hardy and the young pitching – is good enough to contend in the American League East.

And that’s where it gets tricky.

Take a highly-qualified candidate like Coppolella, for instance. He’s likely to look at the core the Orioles have in place and not be terribly convinced that the Orioles can compete with that. He would probably want to tear that down and start from scratch, trading away what valuable current pieces the Orioles do have to help restore a middle-of-the-pack farm system. He’d articulate that plan to the Orioles brass – i.e. mainly Peter Angelos and Buck Showalter – during the interview process. Would Angelos and Showalter really hire someone that wants to tear down the current core? Seems unlikely.

Or would they bring in someone that has the faulty notion that the Orioles actually can compete with that core because Showalter and Angelos don’t want to tear it all down? I don’t know for sure. I’d hope Angelos and Showalter have the long-term vision to embrace a thorough rebuild, but I’m not expecting to see such a vision, especially after a series of moves this year highlighted by the Vladimir Guerrero signing.

The organization seems to be in no hurry to truly rebuild. Andy MacPhail tried to rebuild and seemed at least moderately successful in doing so at first, helping to infuse the organization with much-needed young talent. There seemed to be a concerted effort to allow the young kids on the big league team to play every day, giving them a chance to improve and enter themselves into the club’s long-term plans. Then it all sort of came to a halt before 2010, with the first red flag being giving up a draft pick to sign Mike Gonzalez.

That proved to just be an appetizer for the 2011 season, in which the club gladly signed and played declining veterans over younger, cheaper talent. Whether MacPhail just got impatient with his own plan or he was pushed by ownership and marketing to “win now” in 2011, we’ll probably never know. Maybe hiring Showalter signaled the “end” of rebuilding. I don’t know.

What I do know is that the next general manager has major decisions to make on the 25-man roster. Again, we don’t know what kind of philosophy the next GM will bring – win now or tear down – so we’ll approach the off-season with an open mind. Here we go…

1. Extend or trade Adam Jones?

It wasn’t too long ago that Jones was looked upon as one of the key cogs for the Orioles’ rebuilding program. Maybe he still is – I’m not totally sure. Here’s what we do know: Jones has made serious progress this year with the bat, although a big issue the three years before this season remains an issue. His first three years as an Oriole resulted in a solid yet unspectacular .278/.324/.434 combined batting line, but upside remained due to his physical tools.

What was mainly holding him back at the plate was poor plate discipline and/or pitch recognition. Jones produced walk rates of 4.5%, 6.9% and 3.7% in his first three years in Baltimore, but perhaps a bigger issue was that he found himself in so many pitchers counts because he swung at so much crap. Jones wasn’t allowing his well above-average raw hitting ability to shine because he was in so many 0-2 and 1-2 counts. That left him susceptible to more breaking stuff out of the zone that he had trouble identifying as such.

But Jones has markedly improved his ability to lay off the breaking stuff out of the zone and his strike zone judgment in general, which has meant more hitters counts – i.e., Jones now gets more fastballs to turn on. The result is an improved .290/.327/.478 line with 22 homers before the end of August. Though I hoped Jones’ walk rate would improve markedly this year, it has not. Jones will likely never walk even an average amount in any season, but that’s more or less what he is; trying to change Jones so he takes more walks may hurt other parts of his game that he excels in, such as attacking fastballs early in the count.

So we’re left to ponder whether this year is a sign of things to come in the future or whether 2011 will be an outlier in terms of offensive production. Will Jones revert to his form of the previous three years? Will he continue to progress? Or will he sit around this offensive production (~.350 wOBA) for the next handful of seasons?

Jones’ other issue is whether he’s a center fielder long-term – UZR has him as being below-average in center for the last three seasons. My theory on this is that Jones has always gotten poor jumps and taken poor routes to batted balls, but he no longer has the speed he had as a rookie to make up for those poor jumps and routes. Players tend to peak early in their careers defensively.

The only way the Orioles should even consider extending Jones is if they still think he’s a center fielder because Jones’ bat wouldn’t play well in a corner, at least as of now. If the Orioles want to extend Jones even with the knowledge that he’s not a center fielder long-term, they’d be betting his production at the plate continues to grow, because that’d be the only way he’d be a significantly valuable piece for a contending team down the road. That’s a risky proposition that I wouldn’t be comfortable, and a trade would probably be a better option.

Thus, if the next Orioles brain-trust is of the mindset that Jones is a corner outfielder long-term, Jones is a very viable trade candidate. The Orioles could probably coax the Godfather offer from a team that still views Jones as a five-tool center fielder.

Either way, the Orioles would be foolish not to look into trading Jones this off-season because they’re not going to contend in the next two years, which are the last years of Jones’ cost-controlled salaries. Jones’ trade value will not be higher than it is right now with those two cost-controlled years left. The Orioles’ farm system could get a huge shot in the arm with the potential haul Jones could bring back. Someone of Coppolella’s mold would probably look into this.

But I suspect it’s much more likely that the Orioles, if the current way of thinking stays in place, look into extending Jones as the long-term center fielder of the team, assuming Jones and his representation would be interested. If Jones signs a sizeable extension (four years and in the neighborhood of $30 to $40 million), he could feasibly revert back to 2008-2010 form at the plate. The last thing the Orioles need is to invest in another long-term extension for a player and see significant regression from that player, a la Nick Markakis.

With the current question marks around Jones’ game – whether his offensive production this year is actually a sign of things to come (even without sufficient walk rates) and whether he’s good enough defensively to stay in center – would make me very, very nervous about an extension for Jones. A trade may well be in the interest of the club, though I doubt that’s the direction they’ll go in.

2. To what extent should the Orioles rely on their young pitchers in 2012?

Easily the most disappointing aspect of the Orioles’ season has been the stagnation and/or regression of the young pitchers they counted on to take them to the next level. Zach Britton has been the most successful of the young guys this year but has taken significant lumps, Brian Matusz is a totally different pitcher than what we saw last year, Jake Arrieta had season-ending elbow surgery, and Chris Tillman has stagnated.*

*In fact, of the pitchers called up in 2009, David Hernandez is having the best year of the bunch. Unfortunately, he’s with Arizona. Moving from the AL East to NL West certainly helped Hernandez. But the fact that Hernandez – not exactly the most well thought of pitcher in the “Cavalry” – is having the best season of the crew brings up more questions about the organization’s player development, especially with pitchers.

Some might say to bring in a veteran arm to provide stability. But Britton, Matusz, Arrieta and to a lesser extent, Tillman, are the players the organization had more or less depended on as the keys of the rebuilding plan. The only way they’ll ultimately get better in the big leagues is by pitching against big league hitters, and the organization can’t afford to block them with more expensive alternatives. Banishing them to the minors upon failure serves no purpose.

Britton has to be penciled into the 2012 rotation as of now, but a young pitcher’s status can change quickly. Matusz was in Britton’s approximate spot this time last year, and we see what kind of disastrous year Matusz has had. I think Arrieta is probably penciled into the 2012 rotation as well despite an ERA slightly north of 5.00 this year. His strikeouts rose from 4.66 per nine in 2010 to 7.01 this year, which is at least encouraging.

The hope is that Arrieta can hold his command and stuff deeper into games next year with his elbow issues resolved. I still think Arrieta might be bullpen-bound long-term (where he can max out his fastball and slider), but the Orioles should still give him 30 starts next year and see where they stand.

After that, it gets murkier. Matusz struggles to hold his velocity and command even into the middle innings of a game these days, and once he loses either, the balls start sailing over the fence. Matusz has always been a flyball pitcher – even dating back to his college days – but that doesn’t explain his struggles this year. His velocity is down to the point where he has very little margin for error, so when he has the slightest command issues, he gets hammered.

Matusz has to work this off-season to get his conditioning and strength back to where he was before the back injury so he can hold a low-90’s fastball late into games, which would make his low-80’s changeup much more effective. Higher velocity would also allow Matusz to use more of the plate because these days, he absolutely has to stay on the black. That’s a tough way for anyone to be successful.

Matusz likely knows that he has to get stronger and better conditioned over the off-season. He’ll hopefully come to spring training with his “old stuff” back, but until that happens, it’s very difficult to know what to expect from him next year. I assume Tillman will begin 2012 in Norfolk, and the Orioles will see where they are this time next season with him in terms of thinking about a potential shift to the bullpen to see if his old velocity can come back in short bursts.

My guess is Britton, Arrieta and Matusz start 2012 in the rotation, as they should. After that, who knows? The Orioles would be wise to try to find a suitor for Jeremy Guthrie.* Alfredo Simon and Tommy Hunter could start in the bullpen and be nice depth pieces to move into the rotation when a starter gets hurt. Maybe the organization views Hunter and Simon as starters. Maybe there will be some bargains to be had in the free agent market. But the club can’t block its young starters. Britton, Arrieta and Matusz have to get 30 starts at the big league level next year.

**Guthrie’s final year of arbitration is 2012. The Orioles could pay the expensive price of that year (upwards of $8 million to $10 million), trade him for not much, or non-tender him. Guthrie is a nice arm to have around to provide innings, especially for a team like the Orioles, but paying that kind of arbitration price tag for a pitcher not likely to waver too much from his career norms of a 4.20 ERA and 4.69 FIP doesn’t seem terribly prudent. Tommy Hunter, for instance — for all his warts — could probably put up a mid-4.00’s ERA next year at near league minimum salary.

3. Will Mark Reynolds be the everyday first baseman in 2012?

Before I go on any longer, signing Prince Fielder to a really long contract would be really stupid and I doubt the Orioles would be the highest bidders for his services anyhow. The Orioles are not one Prince Fielder away from making any significant dent in the standings in the next two or three years, which are likely to be Fielder’s best years of a potential eight year deal. The Orioles should direct additional funds towards the amateur side of the business (both domestically and internationally) rather than pay Fielder enormous gobs of cash.

Anyhow, the Orioles have been experimenting with Reynolds at first base recently, and defensively, it’s gone much better at first than at third. Reynolds’ bat doesn’t play nearly well enough at first base to stick there long-term, but for a rebuilding team looking for a non-horrible option at first base during the down years, Reynolds is a fine option. I wouldn’t anticipate Reynolds’ $11 million club option for 2013 being picked up, though.

4. So then what do the Orioles do at third base?

The Orioles actually have long-term options at this position, including two potential high impact players in Jonathan Schoop and Nicky Delmonico***. Schoop’s long-term position is still in question – mostly due to questions about how big he’ll get – but third base remains an option for him in the future even though he’s been playing second base for Frederick.

***Delmonico was a huge signing for Joe Jordan. The system badly needed more high-ceiling position players, and Delmonico is exactly that. I’d like to see Jordan, or whoever the next scouting director is, with the budgetary flexibility in future drafts to pick the best players in each round regardless of cost so more Delmonico-types can enter the system. Regarding Schoop, have you seen his August numbers? He’s hitting .349/.384/.557 in August after struggling mightily in June and July as a 19-year-old in the college heavy Carolina League. Schoop’s performance this year between Delmarva and Frederick has been a major bright spot for an organization lacking them. We can only hope that there’s another international prospect who will break out next year. Some candidates from this year’s O’s GCL squad include Gabriel Lino (catcher, Venezuela), Roderick Bernadina (right fielder, Curacao), Eduardo Rodriguez (left-handed starter, Venezuela) and Miguel Chalas (right-handed starter, Dominican Republic). The Orioles don’t devote nearly enough resources internationally, but their scouts have found some legit, under the radar players in Schoop, Lino, Bernadina, Rodriguez, Chalas and a few others.

Jason Esposito, this year’s second rounder, is a third baseman out of Vanderbilt who may have become the organization’s best defender at the hot corner the moment he signed. There are questions about his ability to hit in pro ball, especially for power, and those will begin to be answered next year.

Anyway, back to 2012. I’ve maintained throughout the season that a key factor in the young pitching performing the way it has is the quality of the defense behind them; Reynolds was certainly leading that charge at third base. Aside from Hardy and Matt Wieters, who on the 25-man roster was a plus defender for the majority of the season? Probably Derrek Lee, but defenders at first base usually have limited impact.

Reynolds and Jones rate well below average at their positions over their careers. Markakis’ range isn’t what it used to be. The lack of a steady second baseman hurts. Add it all up, and the Orioles rank dead-last in team UZR this year (-46.1). Baseball Prospectus has the Orioles among the worst in the league in converting balls in play into outs.

The Orioles have allowed 5.21 runs per game this year****. The most efficient way to chop down on that number over the off-season is not by spending a bunch of money on pitching, but to aid the young pitchers by trotting out as good a defense behind them as you can. As the Rays have found out, this can also be done in a cost-efficient manner.

****If 5.21 runs per game seems like a lot of runs, that’s because it is.

It starts with third base, where a good defender would be a great service to Britton, a left-handed sinkerballer. None of Arrieta, Matusz and Britton miss a lot of bats*****, so they have to have a good defense behind them to help them out. No one on the potential free agent third base list seems particularly appealing in this regard so the Orioles might have to get creative via trade to find a good glove on the cheap at the hot corner.

*****In the draft, I think the organization needs to add more high-ceiling arms that project to miss bats. There just aren’t many pitchers in the system who miss a ton of bats. The AL East is brutal for pitchers and the best (only?) way to survive is to generate a lot of swings and misses. The amateur budget needs to be expanded in order to allow the scouting department to find more Parker Bridwell-types in later rounds – high ceiling arms who can miss bats but fall in the draft due to price tags. Toronto in recent years has been all over these types of pitchers; the Orioles need to join them.

The Orioles also figure to have a hole at second base with Brian Roberts’ recurring injury issues. Here’s a name to consider for second base that some already have: Mark Ellis. Ellis has always been a well above-average defender at second base, even if his bat is kind of terrible at this point. Ellis would come at a cheap salary and would be a solid option if and when Roberts succumbs to injury next season.

5. Will Nolan Reimold be the everyday left fielder in 2012?

I hope so. Dude deserves a full 650+ plate appearances without having to look over his shoulder every time he strikes out.

All statistics are as of August 29′s 30′s results.

Since about June or so, it’s become increasingly clear that current Orioles general manager Andy MacPhail, who took over baseball operations in the middle of 2007, will step down from his post after the season when his contract expires. His tenure has had some good features and, well, some not so good features. All in all, the club has more young players that could be a stable part of the club’s future than when MacPhail took over, but the general outlook remains the same. The Orioles are in by far the worst shape of any team in the toughest division in sports, both in the short-term and the long-term.

Once MacPhail steps down – and again, that’s not a guarantee but it seems likely – the Orioles could promote from within the organization or go outside the organization to look for a replacement. Promoting from within the organization would probably be a mistake. (One of Buck Showalter, Joe Jordan or Matt Klentak would likely become the general manager.) The organization needs to look to the outside for a fresh, new voice with fresh, new ideas.

In a division that includes the ninja-like tendencies of Alex Anthopolous and Andrew Friedman and the never-ending resources of the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, finding the next general manager is an absolutely crucial hire. Camden Depot took a look at potential replacements for MacPhail outside of the organization here. Orioles Nation examined potential candidates here. Both are good pieces and I encourage everyone to check them out. Personally, I’d love for the Orioles to take a hard look at John Coppolella, Director of Baseball Administration for the Atlanta Braves.

I think that the most likely scenario after the season is MacPhail, Showalter and majority owner Peter Angelos all selecting a successor for MacPhail. I feel like the idea of Showalter hanging up the managerial cleats and becoming the general manager is a bit overblown at this point – or at least I hope it is. The idea of Showalter becoming the GM is borderline frightening. If that were to happen, I could totally see him trading Zach Britton for Dan Uggla or something.

The other issue is Angelos himself – are MacPhail, Showalter and Angelos able to convince candidates for the general manager position that Angelos won’t interfere with everyday baseball operations? And once that trust is established, will Angelos keep his word? Anyway, with the organization in the position that it’s currently in, I’m looking for a handful of things from the next general manager, as well as whomever he brings into the organization. Let’s get to it.

1.      An open mind in terms of player development. Over recent years, the Orioles have had a terrible time developing quality talent through their farm system. The most recent example garnering national headlines has been the young pitching that has filtered through the farm system and into the big leagues from 2009 to 2011 (from Brad Bergesen to Zach Britton). The issues with the young pitchers are well documented, as well as the slower-than-expected offensive development of Matt Wieters and Adam Jones.

The poster boy of the player development failures, though, could be Josh Bell. Acquired in the George Sherrill trade from the Dodgers, Bell’s approach at the plate completely fell apart, seemingly the moment he entered the Orioles’ system. He’s quickly gone from “third baseman of the future” to “oh look, another failed Orioles prospect.”

Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies broke down the Orioles’ fairly recent track record of developing young pitching on a recent MASNsports.com guest post here; I recommend everyone checking out the dismal track record. Or maybe you don’t because you’ll get depressed. I don’t know. Your choice.

The first thing I’d do as the next Orioles general manager is try to uncover everything I can possibly can to get to the root of this constant issue. It’s still possible that the failure to develop prospects within the system is all rotten luck, but this seems like an awful lot to attribute mainly to bad luck; more realistically, this is systemic. The frustrating part is that it’s impossible to put a finger on what exactly is causing the player development issue. Former minor leaguer Don Olsen wrote a piece for Orioles Nation here about what he would do to ensure that the organization’s talent develops to the best of its ability.

I’d want the new general manager to come in with the understanding that the organization has had difficulty developing productive young players and have an open mind about how to fix it so that current prospects like Manny Machado, Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Schoop don’t become the next victims. If that means overhauling the current player development chain – it probably does – and hiring new instructors, so be it. If it means keeping some current instructors in place who are thought to be doing an excellent job, so be it. If it means clearing out folks in the Warehouse, fine. But changes very obviously have to be made.

2.     An understanding of where to allocate a finite number of resources. MacPhail seemed to have an understanding of where a lot of his available resources needed to go when he took over the general manager position. He spoke of paring down the major league payroll and ridding the club of burdensome contracts for middling players, and for the most part, he did that in his first couple of years in Baltimore. Meanwhile, his first major move as general manager was signing Matt Wieters to a club record $6 million bonus for an amateur.

MacPhail’s first two draft signing periods he presided over – 2007 and 2008 (he was hired after the draft in 2007 but before the signing deadline) – saw higher draft bonuses given out to amateurs than in the recent past, headlined by Wieters and Brian Matusz. MacPhail also spoke of a greater commitment to the international scene, where the Orioles were a non-factor at best and an embarrassment at worst. But then the rebuilding movement MacPhail instilled, partially based on committing to the draft, sort of came to a halt.

More resources were spent on middling free agents, especially troubling since relievers were involved: Michael Gonzalez, Miguel Tejada (round two), Garrett Atkins, Kevin Gregg, Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero. The 2009 draft saw a departure from the previous two drafts, as the Orioles went with Matt Hobgood as the fifth pick of the draft, and most draft analysts believed the Orioles passed over better talents such as Jacob Turner and Shelby Miller due to potential price tags.

There can’t be any restrictions placed on scouting director Joe Jordan, or whoever the next lead scout is. (Jordan’s contract is up after this year. I personally think Jordan has done a pretty good job and would like to see him continue.) And to be fair, the Orioles took two high price-tag players in Machado and Bundy the next two years, but the Hobgood pick remains suspicious. Meantime, the commitment to the international market never manifested, and the way MacPhail has ended up talking about the international scene is borderline sickening.

The next general manager must understand that resources need to be devoted to the draft, the international market and player development and not middling free agents. Maybe just as important, the next general manager has to have the latitude with ownership and other internal forces to stay on the rebuilding path and not drive off said path and straight into a river. To recap: Upgrading spending on the draft, the international market, along with player development – good. Spending a lot of money on middling free agents – bad.

 3.     An understanding that a shift in strategy needs to occur. The recent off-season free agent signings, along with some other recent moves, signal that the organization’s biggest concern as currently constructed is to be less terrible in the short-term, and they’re willing to sacrifice long-term goals to satisfy the former. A perfect example of this is the Guerrero signing, which was meant to help raise the win total of the 2011 team by a win or two, but two negatives were also achieved.

One was that Nolan Reimold, a possible part of the future as a cheap left fielder, was pushed out of the 25-man roster and onto the Norfolk roster. Reimold finally got a chance to play later in the year (but only due to an injury to Luke Scott), but even now, Reimold isn’t playing every day. The organization sacrificed finding out about Reimold’s long-term future in the hopes of being ever-so-slightly less terrible in 2011. The other negative was the $8 million contract number – that’s real cash that could have been used to sign international free agents and draft more costly, high ceiling players.

The next general manager must understand the proper strategy in the broad scope of the organization’s path and has to trust that it’s the correct path. MacPhail seemed to get impatient with his rebuilding plan in its beginning stages – he gave up a draft pick for the “privilege” to sign Mike Gonzalez, proclaimed that wins matter in the 2010 season, and that the team had turned the page on nurturing along the young talent. Now, the Orioles find themselves in a position where their big league payroll is far too large, with bad contracts abound (but at least most of those are short-term).

4.     Creativity and a willingness to take risks on young talent. After the Blue Jays pulled off the trade that brought them uber-talented center fielder Colby Rasmus, the reaction among Orioles fans was fairly universal: “Andy MacPhail could never pull off something like that.” The Jays pulled off a tricky maneuver involving three teams to get Rasmus, a player they coveted. The Cardinals, Rasmus’ former team, were looking for starting pitching for the stretch run and put Rasmus on the block in order to acquire said pitching. Rasmus, for whatever reasons – some are known, some are not – did not mesh with manager Tony LaRussa. So the Jays acted boldly, acquiring Edwin Jackson from the White Sox and flipping him and a bevy of relievers (and Corey Patterson…) for Rasmus.

Could MacPhail have found a creative way to acquire the talented Rasmus, who could have been a cost-controlled cog in the outfield for years to come? Could the Orioles have put together a trade package involving Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara to acquire Rasmus? Maybe so. If the Cardinals were content with acquiring Jackson and some relievers, wouldn’t they at least entertain the notion of trading for Guthrie, who would slide into the middle of their rotation, and Uehara, one of the best relievers around? I think they would. Alas, given MacPhail’s history, it’s fair to say that he would not be able to put that kind of trade together in a short amount of time.

MacPhail is known as a methodical front office man with a lot of ties to the commissioner’s office, even rumored as a possible future commissioner of baseball after Bud Selig. Those connected to the commissioner’s office tend not to be terribly forward-thinking, often shunning possible innovation within the game. (Which is why we’ll never see the commissioner’s office approve a potentially innovative owner like Mark Cuban. He’d be a threat to the current way of thinking among ownership groups and the commissioner’s office.)

MacPhail might be able to get away with it in another division. But not in the AL East. The Orioles need to embrace “the extra two percent” like the Rays and Jays have. Those two teams realize that they can’t do business in a conventional fashion because they’re not in a conventional situation given the division alignment. These two teams realize they have to recognize every possible advantage and market inefficiency available to them and exploit it.

For the Rays, that might mean endlessly studying where to position their defenders against certain opposing hitters. For the Jays, it might mean taking other teams’ supposed headcases like Yunel Escobar and Rasmus and inserting them into the lineup everyday and allowing them to shine. Each team realizes, though, that they need to stay ahead of the curve. They need to exploit the smallest of loopholes. They get it.

The Orioles, meanwhile, routinely trot out a less-than-optimal lineup every night, basically ignore the international market and are one of the few teams left that haven’t fully embraced new, advanced metrics.

The Orioles need to get on board. That hasn’t happened under MacPhail, and his attitude towards international scouting is a perfect metaphor for his approach to running a baseball team in 2011 in the AL East – slow, tired and behind in the times. The Orioles need a general manager willing to explore all avenues to success, not a narrow-minded approach.

I’m writing this a few hours before the deadline, so I apologize if I post this right before the Orioles make another trade, but at this point, I don’t expect any more deals to go down. I expect Jeremy Guthrie and Jim Johnson to stay put, although the Orioles should probably move Guthrie for the best package of prospects they can find right now. But the Orioles apparently view Guthrie as being more valuable than he actually is due to the innings he eats for them. (Guthrie is a solid starter in any rotation but obviously shouldn’t be viewed as a No. 1 or 2 starter in terms of trade value.)

I’d look into trading Guthrie in the off-season because at 32 (and 33 next year), Guthrie has probably begun to decline in terms of skills and production. I wouldn’t be comfortable paying Guthrie the $8 million-plus in his final arbitration year when I could find a pitcher to produce something close to Guthrie’s typical ERA at or close to minimum salary.

Anyhow, the first trade that went down yesterday sent Koji Uehara, one of the best relievers in the big leagues this year, to the Texas Rangers for first baseman Chris Davis and right-handed pitcher Tommy Hunter. Uehara, as long as he holds up in the Texas heat, will be of assistance to the Rangers the last two months of the season and, presumably, in the post-season. Uehara recorded video game numbers out of the bullpen, striking out 11.87 batters per nine innings and walking just 1.53. I’ll miss seeing Uehara throw his ultra-deceptive 88-89 mph heater past hitters, along with his splitter that falls off the table. The Orioles’ first venture into the Japanese market was successful one – once Uehara was pitching into the bullpen, he thrived. (Although he should’ve been the closer this year.)

In getting Davis and Hunter as the return, I feel that the Orioles are misguided. This is a return that is meant to help the Orioles be less terrible in 2012 and 2013, whereas they could have plucked from the Rangers’ insanely deep farm system to help prop up the farm system. I would have much preferred the Orioles to pick up a high-ceiling pitcher or two from the Rangers’ lower levels rather than this return, which reeks of short-term thinking.

The Orioles should be looking for prospects that have the opportunity to make an impact at the big league level at the same time that Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy begin contributing. Barring something unforeseen, we know what Davis and Hunter are – Davis, a Quad-A player and Hunter, an inventory arm – whereas the Orioles could have shot for higher ceiling.

And who knows? Maybe Davis and Hunter were the best options the Orioles had on the table. Maybe the Rangers and other teams refused to include any high-ceiling arms in their lower levels. But for perhaps the best reliever on the trade market, I doubt that, and it seems as if the Orioles actually targeted these particular players rather than thinking long-term. I speculated along with others on Twitter that this trade has Buck Showalter’s fingerprints on it, in so much that Showalter isn’t interested in entering 2012 and 2013 in full rebuilding mode and pushed general manager Andy MacPhail to trade for pieces that can help him marginally right now.

With that being said, a player like Davis is exactly the kind of player the Orioles should be taking a chance on – but not in exchange for the team’s top trade chip. Davis is a player that has mashed in Triple-A, but has faltered badly in limited opportunities in the big leagues. Davis will get about 200 plate appearances the rest of the season at first base, with no one blocking him given the trade of Lee to Pittsburgh.

If Davis proves to be a solid big league first baseman the opportunities he’s given – the rest of this season and perhaps all of next season – I will have been proven wrong about this trade. But the chance that happens appear slim, as Davis (a .248/.300/.455 hitter and a 31.7 percent strikeout rate in nearly 1,000 big league plate appearances in parts of four seasons) seems to be entrenched pretty clearly as a Quad-A player. But if Davis plays well enough to convince the Orioles not to waste a bunch of money on a first baseman this winter, that’ll be a positive. Hunter (5.10 strikeouts per nine innings in 266.1 career innings) also is what he is, and probably isn’t going to improve.

The Lee trade was essentially to make room for Davis (and also as a salary dump), so there’s not a lot to analyze, especially since it’s a non-prospect heading to Baltimore in exchange. The Uehara trade was better than standing pat and holding onto a 36-year-old reliever (no matter how much we all love him), but the Orioles’ philosophy in identifying trade targets appears misguided.

It’s mid-July. The Orioles’ season has by now gone into the tank, like too many seasons before it around this time during the season. Camden Yards remains a beautiful ballpark, yet the reasons for visiting it are dwindling for the vast majority of fans due to the product on the field deteriorating wildly before our eyes. But the hope of what might be still remains, and that begins with the kids currently down on the farm.

It’s not a great farm system; it’s no better than a middle of the pack system once Dylan Bundy signs, and it might be a bottom-third system at the moment. But two high-ceiling talents lead the farm system, and there are a handful of promising talents behind those two. I asked Jason A. Churchill (@ProspectInsider) to comment on the Orioles’ farm system and organization in general. He’s very interactive on Twitter, so definitely follow him. He’ll answer all of the prospect questions you could possibly have. You can read this work on Prospect Insider. He contributes to ESPN.com’s MLB draft blog. Without further ado, let’s get to Churchill’s thoughts. A big thank you to Churchill for spending some time to talk O’s.

Manny Machado entered the season with a mountain of expectations. This season is the first since he received a huge bonus as the third overall pick in the 2010 draft. He’s had ridiculous Alex Rodriguez comparisons slapped on him. He’s been labeled the future star shortstop for the Baltimore Orioles. Yet, Machado has met expectations – perhaps even exceeding them – as a teenager.

Machado hit .276/.376/.483 at Delmarva, putting up monster numbers before a knee injury sidelined him for a month. He cooled off after he returned from injury. He was promoted to Frederick in June, where he’s hitting .218/.323/.345 in limited plate appearances. It’s now up to Machado to make the necessary adjustments in order to succeed at High-A as a 19-year-old.

“From what I have seen and have discussed with scouts, Machado simply needs [to] continue to work, make the small adjustments and grow,” wrote Churchill in an e-mail. “If he stays focused these little changes will just be progress: pitch recognition, staying patient when he struggles, not taking offensive slumps into [the shortstop position], things of that nature.”

Questions have been raised about the ability of the 6-foot-3, 185 pound Machado to stay at shortstop once he fills out, but those questions are now being asked less and less frequently. Churchill is confident that Machado will stay at short, where his offensive production will be most valuable.

“Even as he fills out physically, I see him sticking at short,” Churchill wrote. “The feet are quick, his hands are above average and his arm strength will never be in question. At that position, repetition is a big part of it and the more he works on the turns and feeds at second, the better he’ll get — and he’s already pretty darned good. The actions are easy and smooth and anyone that suggests third base right now is just taking the safe road — but they’ll be wrong.”

Despite the young shortstop’s talent – he was recently ranked by Keith Law as the fifth-best prospect in baseball – Churchill says that Orioles fans need to be patient with Machado as he learns how to make adjustments on the fly as he paves his path to the big leagues.

“Machado is likely to have problems at the plate at some point and to some extent, likely in Double-A, which seemingly will come at age 19 or 20,” wrote Churchill. “This will be the big test and he may not skate through the league. O’s fans should be patient with him if and when this occurs.

“I see him hitting the big leagues as early as June 2013, and he’s advanced enough right now to suggest he may not need a return to the minors once he tastes the majors.”

Machado is often talked about in the same breath as Jonathan Schoop, a 19-year-old infielder signed out of Curacao in 2008. That Machado and Schoop were the two players from the Orioles’ organization to make the trip to Arizona for the Futures Game did nothing to dissuade how often the two are linked. Schoop appeared in top-10 Orioles prospect lists this winter after solid showings in the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League in 2010.

Schoop then began 2011 in Delmarva, where he hit .316/.376/.514 and earned a promotion to Frederick. He’s currently hitting .211/.256/.263 in the Carolina League in 114 at-bats, but Schoop’s prospect status around the game is now quite high – he came in at No. 38 on Law’s top-50 list.

“Schoop’s lead tool his improved ability to hit for average and his power, which may project as above average right now,” Churchill wrote. “It doesn’t hurt that he’s a good athlete with a strong arm and soft hands. He may need to move off shortstop, despite being a solid-average defender there at present, perhaps better.

“I don’t see Schoop moving at the pace Machado does, as his tools come up just a bit short, though his feel for the game is there and there isn’t one single poor physical tool of which to speak, including his speed, which is about average.”

Schoop, a natural shortstop, has been playing mostly second base for Frederick to make room for Machado, though most think Schoop (6-foot-1, 187) will fill out to the point that third base is the most likely long-term destination for him. Churchill, though, would keep Schoop and Machado at different affiliates for now so the shortstop position can remain an option for Schoop.

“I’d make sure he and Machado don’t play on the same roster until Schoop is within a year or so of the big leagues, at which time I’d move him off short permanently,” wrote Churchill. “In the meantime, more third base, and perhaps some outfield may be in order. The best bet is the hot corner, but leaving short and second as an option is the smart move.”

Another player in the O’s farm system that has seen his stock rise in terms of production and publicity is 2008 eighth-rounder Bobby Bundy, a right-handed starting pitcher for Frederick. After two up-and-down, injury-plagued years in Bluefield and Delmarva, Bundy, 21, is finally completely healthy and has broken out for the Keys. Bundy has a 3.31 ERA in the Carolina League in 116.0 innings pitched, striking out 82 and walking 29. Bundy was also in the news earlier because his brother, Dylan, was drafted by the Orioles with the fourth overall selection in June’s draft.

“Bundy has been 90-93, toughing as high as 95, at least in front of the scouts with which I have had conversations with,” wrote Churchill. “There is occasional arm-side run and sink, but does show some late life. The curveball, which he varies between 77 and 81 mph, has depth and at times is an above-average pitch, and has been the difference this season versus last. The change is spotty, which is typical for most 21-year-old prospects, but he will throw it to lefties to keep them off his fastball, and shows good arm speed and some deception.

“He’s physical, like his younger brother, but is taller — a true 6-foot-2 — and attacks hitters, looking to spot his fastball on both sides of the plate. His control has taken another small step forward this season, but his command within the zone still needs some work. Two chief scouts profile him as a No. 4 starter, but in the game video I have I see more there, and if it comes down to work ethic, he’ll make it happen.”

Bundy could continue performing well at Frederick and force a promotion, but Churchill says that there’s no reason to rush him.

“As for his development path, I’d keep him at High-A for now, but a late-season shove to Double-A Bowie shouldn’t be out of the question, especially if he could taste some postseason experience,” wrote Churchill. “Workload would be my only concern there.”

If Machado and Schoop are now lumped together by Orioles fans, then so are LJ Hoes and Xavier Avery, who both play for Bowie. A third round selection in 2008, Hoes is a Bowie native currently playing for the Baysox. Hoes, 21, was promoted to Bowie despite hitting .241/.297/.342 in 158 at-bats in Frederick this year. Hoes is currently hitting .302/.354/.352 at Bowie. The main issue for Hoes is that while he can hit, his lack of power limits the positions where his bat could play in an everyday role and he doesn’t even have a set position at the moment. He’s played second, third and the outfield this year.

“Hoes is still improving at second and generally gets fringe grades, but with some optimism attached,” wrote Churchill. “He has the arm to play in a corner, but won’t hit for power and needs to stay at second to project as a regular. Center field could be another option, but he’s not getting any time there in Double-A, possibly due to 50 speed and agility grades.

“He has the strength to develop legit gap power but isn’t there yet, and some if that is in the swing plane and his lack of loft and leverage.”

Avery, meantime, is the everyday center fielder for Bowie at 21 years old. Avery is hitting .264/.317/.346 with 26 steals (he has been caught 11 times). He’s also struck out 99 times in 356 at-bats. The 2008 second rounder and former University of Georgia football recruit hasn’t yet been able to convert his ample physical tools into performance on the field.

“Avery I saw in the Sally League and it appears not much has changed since then,” wrote Churchill. “He’s still working on the approach and is often caught backwards; he tries to work the count at times, only to find himself behind often, passing up pitches he could have handled, while other times he’s aggressive and ends up swinging at the pitcher’s pitch — usually breaking balls.

“Avery is full of tools and above average bat speed and he pulls his hips through well. But he’s often out front early and doesn’t get to the outer half consistently, both problems that magnify significantly versus left-handers. He’s still very raw, even defensively, but if the O’s stay patient he could be a late bloomer. The hit tool is the biggest concern as he lacks satisfactory contact rates and doesn’t use his plus speed as well as he could.”

In Aberdeen, one of a handful of players of interest is Connor Narron, who was signed to an over-slot bonus as the Orioles’ fifth round selection in 2010. Currently hitting .225/.373/.270, Narron is walking a ton (19 walks as opposed to 16 strikeouts) but he isn’t hitting for power and has had some issues defensively at third base. Narron (6-foot-3, 195) was a shortstop in high school. Narron’s father, Jerry, played and managed in the big leagues and is now the bench coach for the Milwaukee Brewers.

“He’s strong, knows the strike zone and is very disciplined, but has below-average hands and probably ends up in the outfield,” wrote Churchill. “He’s a worker and a smart player with good baseball makeup which should help him stay on track for a big league career, but most scouts don’t love the swing and Narron is susceptible on the inner half. His swing mechanics are fine, but he loads up deep sometimes, and due to a lack of top bat speed such a flaw will likely hinder his ability to handle better pitching, so there’s work to do.”

Churchill says he feels better about the Orioles’ farm system than this time last year even though Zach Britton is no longer a prospect. “Machado has some track record now,” wrote Churchill. “Schoop has proven last year was not a fluke.  I’m intrigued some by Joe Mahoney and Trent Mummey should probably be challenged again in August.”

Churchill also singled out 18-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez, signed out of Venezuela in 2010, as one of the players to watch in the Orioles’ Rookie Leagues. A left-handed pitcher who has struck out 20 in 17 innings in the Gulf Coast League, Rodriguez “has above-average velocity for a lefty and has some projection in his 6-3, 180-pound frame,” according to Churchill.

With that being said, the Orioles’ system is imbalanced – there’s not much talent at Double-A or Triple-A – and is currently the fifth-best system in the AL East. And of course, the Orioles have glaring deficiencies within their organization in terms of acquiring young talent internationally. Churchill is one of the many folks who believe the Orioles have to step up their presence internationally in an effort to inject more talent into the system. But Churchill says they don’t necessarily have to be shelling out top dollar to international free agents.

“The first move is to get a Venezuelan Summer League affiliate if they can, and to spend to hire the best [Latin American] scouts they possibly can,” wrote Churchill. “But the Tampa Bay Rays, who have the top farm system in baseball right now, don’t do much down there, either, and they continue to find and develop talent on a regular basis, even since they started winning games and drafting outside the top 10.

“In the end, however, yes, I would jump into the international market some, because I do not believe in ignoring any avenues to acquire talent, but I wouldn’t be among the most aggressive clubs handing out the bigger bonuses.”

Churchill also had an interesting take on the Orioles’ most pressing issue right now – the ability to develop young talent within the organization. While most point to the player development chain – including yours truly – Churchill points to a simpler explanation.

“The O’s issues start and end with bad luck, in my opinion,” wrote Churchill. “Brian Matusz’s current issues, Matt Wieters developing much slower offensively than everyone on the planet inside and outside the Orioles organization believed, the stagnated development of Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta … it happens, but that’s a lot to have happened to one organization.”

All statistics are as of Thursday, July 14′s results.

My favorite post-game reading after any Ravens game is unquestionably Kevin Van Valkenburg’s “Five Things We Learned,” which can be found on Ravens Insider on www.baltimoresun.com. It’s the most thoughtful analysis on any mainstream Baltimore news outlet that I’ve found, and quite frankly, I don’t know if there’s a close second. Assuming there’s a 2011 football season (and there will be – no games will be missed), start reading Van Valkenburg’s post-game blogs immediately upon the start of the season if you don’t yet do so.

Anyhow, I asked Van Valkenburg on Twitter (@KVanValkenburg) if I could use his template for the Orioles’ first half, and he graciously said yes. So without further ado, here are the five things we learned about the Baltimore Orioles in the first half.

1. Matt Wieters is a damn good baseball player. Wieters has been called a bust. He’s been called a disappointment. He’s been labeled just another in a long line of failed Orioles prospects. Lost in all of the negative critiques is that Wieters has turned in a damn fine catcher. Wieters is probably the best defensive catcher in the game at this point, and the defensive metrics seem to vehemently agree with that. Wieters is throwing out about 44 percent of attempted base-stealers and ranks fourth among big league catchers in fWAR at 2.3, based largely on his defense.

Granted, if we were told this time about 25 months ago (when Wieters was called up to the big leagues amidst much hype) that Wieters would soon become the best defensive catcher in baseball with the offensive numbers that he has put up, would we be disappointed with that? I’d imagine so. Fans and pundits around baseball were expecting a middle-of-the-order, franchise-changing, dual-threat catcher in Wieters. The hopes of that kind of player are dimming by the day, but don’t let the disappointment of what Wieters was supposed to be* cloud the fact that there are at least 25 other teams around the big leagues that would love to have Wieters behind the dish.

*Fans seem to get upset directly towards Wieters in reference to his modest offensive output thus far in his career. I do wonder why none of this disappointment is viewed towards those who projected Wieters to be God in Cleats. Wieters didn’t ask to be ranked as the No. 1 prospect in baseball. Others did that. Maybe what we’re seeing is always the kind of player Wieters would become, and the prospect analysts just missed on this one. It happens. Maybe Wieters will “just” be one of the better catchers in the game for a long time, rather than Johnny Bench.

Wieters is a work in progress with the bat, showing improvement from last season’s .249/.319/.377 output in 502 plate appearances. This year, Wieters is hitting .264/322/.406 in 301 plate appearances. I don’t think we’ll ever see the .900 OPS Wieters that we all hoped for, but more steady improvement would be wonderful to see from Wieters. Even with the offensive production not being other-worldly, Wieters has cemented himself as a future building block for the organization.

2. I don’t have any answers, but questions absolutely have to be asked of the Orioles’ player development chain, from the big leagues all the way down to the Gulf Coast League. Finding talent is only part of the equation when it comes to fielding quality young talent at the big league level, with developing the talent being another huge factor. Joe Jordan and his staff can only draft and sign players – they can’t develop them, too. The past two seasons have seen an unsettling trend of young players succeeding in the minor leagues, only to stagnate and/or regress in the big leagues.

Chris Tillman is probably the poster boy of this. Tillman came up to the big leagues in 2009 as a potential top of the rotation starter with a fastball up to 93 mph and a hard 12-to-6 curveball. But Tillman now struggles to even hit 90 mph, usually sitting in the 86-88 mph range with his fastball, with the rest of his offerings also being softer than they should be. What happened to Tillman’s velocity? Why did it steadily disappear? No one seems to know. Which, of course, reminds us all of Brian Matusz, the organization’s first round pick (fourth overall) in 2008.

Matusz was lights out in 2010 once Buck Showalter took over, but a back injury sidelined him for the first two months of the 2011 season. Upon his return, Matusz’ velocity was down to 86-87 mph, with spotty command and control. What happened to his velocity? Is it possible (maybe even probable) that he’s still hurt but not telling anyone? Is his back still ailing him? Is it something else?

So why is Matusz still pitching at Norfolk? Shouldn’t be shut down, at least for now? I don’t care if Matusz says he’s healthy – give him MRI’s, blood tests, whatever to see if he’s hurt and/or ill. Either would explain his lack of strength. (This probably classifies as more of a front office issue that Matusz still hasn’t gotten checked on, but it all intertwines anyhow.)

Why hasn’t Adam Jones still figured out how to get into hitter’s counts in order to take advantage of his well above-average hitting ability? Why was Wieters a Zeus-like figure in the minor leagues, only to stagnate with the bat in the big leagues? Why has Nick Markakis regressed like no one’s business since his monster 2008 season? Why, as other big league organizations put together quality starting rotations via youth, are the Orioles’ young pitchers seemingly regressing and overwhelmed by their competition?

If any of these issues with one player occurred in a vacuum, one would think that the struggles would be limited to strictly that particular player and situation. And who knows? Maybe each of the Orioles’ young players was over-hyped from the beginning. Maybe all of the Orioles’ young talent just peaked at a very early age. It could be that the Orioles are just the unluckiest organization in baseball. But those explanations seem far too convenient given that this is an organization-wide downturn in the progression of young talent.

(And why did former pitching coach Mark Connor suddenly resign from his position with no warning? Call me cynical, but I’m not totally buying Connor’s reasoning that he just couldn’t hold up throughout a 162-game season.)

Questions about the player development chain have to be honestly answered by the front office (whether the front office is headed by Andy MacPhail at the end of the year or someone else) and the issues need to be addressed immediately, with more qualified instructors at the minor league levels (and big league levels) being brought in.

If those player development issues aren’t addressed, are Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop and Dylan Bundy next in line for Orioles prospects that succeed in the minors only to stagnate and/or regress in the big leagues? I’d rather not find out.

3. The lack of quality depth at Triple-A has always been an issue for as long as I can remember, but it came to a forefront this year even earlier than it usually does, and it will likely be an issue in 2012, too. I highlighted the Orioles’ alarming lack of depth in the upper levels of the minor leagues in an earlier blog post. As I mentioned in that blog post, the lack of talent in the upper minors ready to help the big league club has stood out this year when players have missed significant time due to injury. If you’re in the mood to be severely depressed, check out the roster for Triple-A Norfolk here. The Tides are 35-56 for a reason – it’s because they’re devoid of talent. (Hey! That record looks pretty similar to the big league club! And the reason for said record looks pretty similar to the big league club, too!)

There’s a pretty significant gap between the last wave of potential impact prospects to hit Baltimore (the Bergesen to Britton group) and the next wave of impact prospects (led by Machado). Britton arrived in April 2011. Machado will likely arrive some time in 2013. That’s far too much time in between impact prospects being called up to the big leagues. Tampa Bay and Toronto are now constantly pumping out prospects, which is the only way for these three clubs to compete in this division. Baltimore, Tampa and Toronto can’t afford to have gaps of potential impact talent in the minor leagues. There needs to be constant waves of it.

But in the Orioles’ case, we’re not talking about just potential impact talent that has ceased coming to Baltimore through the farm system for the time being. We’re talking about any talent to help fill some holes in the roster, specifically the holes in the starting rotation. To be honest, I don’t even know who is in the starting rotation anymore. What’s worse is I don’t think the Orioles know, either.

As Matusz, Tillman and Britton try to work out the kinks in the minor leagues, the options out of Norfolk to fill in the big rotation include Mitch Atkins, Chris George, Rick VandenHurk, Mark Hendrickson, Troy Patton and Steve Johnson. I’m sure these are all nice, personable dudes. But they can’t be anywhere near a big league rotation (and probably not a Triple-A rotation, either). But Atkins has already made two starts. Alfredo Simon has made a start.

When there’s no quality depth at Triple-A, 6-21 stretches during the season – which is how the Orioles finished the first half – are totally feasible. I’d suggest being more active in the minor league free agent market than they are in order to fill holes at Norfolk that impact prospects cannot yet fill. Otherwise, the same problem with a lack of quality depth will be an issue next year, too.

4. There is no window for the Orioles to compete in the AL East, at least as of now. This time two years ago, when Wieters was called up, everyone seemed to be pointing towards 2011 as the season that the Orioles would begin to make noise in the AL East. At that point, Jones and Wieters would be superstars at up-the-middle positions, Markakis would be one of the best outfielders in the game, the rotation would be full of stud home-grown pitchers, and MacPhail would fill the holes on the roster with free agents in the winter of 2010 to put the team over the top.

(To be fair, it sounded great in theory.)

None of those things have transpired, with all of the young talent on the team stagnating, regressing, hurt, or some combination thereof. We were probably guilty of over-estimating what a group of young pitchers could do as soon as 2011, especially in the AL East. We probably put too much stock into Markakis’ monster 2008 season. We probably were too eager to call Jones and Wieters superstars. But none of those things I mentioned working out like we had hoped? That has to be at least somewhat unlucky.

Alas, he we are. The Orioles have somewhere between one and four position players on the big league squad that they could legitimately build around for the next five years. Wieters is definitely such a player, with Jones, Markakis and Reimold being on the fence. (We could find out more about Reimold this season, but the front office thought it was more important to give $8 million to a 36-year-old designated hitter. I personally think Reimold could be a league average left fielder on minimum salary, but we can’t find out about that this year.)

They have between one and three starting pitchers that the team could possibly build around.** Britton seems like he is certainly a future rotation piece, with Matusz and Arrieta being on the fence. I don’t know what to think about Matusz until his velocity ticks back up, and Arrieta could be more of a reliever than a starter if his command doesn’t improve.

**I’d like to see Jim Johnson get a shot as a starter, and I think he might in spring training next year. But I won’t include him amongst the starting pitchers for now because he’s not a starting pitcher, at least not yet.

Altogether, this means between two and seven players that played on the big league squad this year could be a building block for future success. It’s a 25-man roster. You do the math. The current outlook isn’t pretty. The farm system is probably better than it was at this time last year, but it’s probably still a bottom-third farm system, with the biggest impact talents – Machado, Schoop, Dylan Bundy (only if he signs, but he will) – arriving at some point in 2013 at the earliest.

With only two to seven potential impact talents on the roster and a “meh” farm system, how in the world is this organization as currently constructed going to compete in a division with two teams (Tampa Bay and Toronto) boasting top-five farm systems and the other two teams (New York and Boston) being tops in the league in available resources?

The only way out is through player development and that starts with the acquisition of young talent. At this point, every veteran – and by veteran, I mean players who have been in the big leagues for awhile now – should be available via trade right now. That even includes Adam Jones. He’s not improving in key spots of his game, namely plate discipline and pitch recognition. He’s getting expensive in arbitration. His final year under team control is 2013. The Orioles won’t be competitive by then. The Orioles are probably hesitant (and should be) to extend Jones due to his faults. However, some team would probably give up a large package of young talent to acquire such a toolsy outfielder oozing with potential like Jones.

If J.J. Hardy fetches a trade package on the open market that the club perceives to be of higher value than the draft picks they’d get for him as compensation for losing a Type-A free agent, Hardy needs to be traded. Any veteran without a burdensome contract (like Markakis and Roberts) must be traded if there’s value to be brought back via trade. It’d be worth it to just release Vladimir Guerrero or Derrek Lee to give Reimold an everyday spot without being blocked by expensive veterans.

It’s time to start over. Fans will rightfully be wary of another rebuilding project, but failed rebuilding efforts don’t mean to immediately go to a short-term plan and wildly overpay for Prince Fielder. It means a better rebuilding plan is needed. If the Orioles have any hope of competing in the AL East, they need to regularly have one of the top five farm systems in baseball. As I stated, it starts with trading all veterans of value for youth. The next step is to figure out the issues in the player development chain. The next step after that is to allocate resources properly to the draft and international market.

5. Andy MacPhail is not the man to lead this monumental of a rebuild. Andy MacPhail, whose contract with the Orioles is up after this season, is a good baseball man. He led the Minnesota Twins to two World Series titles, in 1987 and 1991. He brought credibility to an organization sorely needing it when he became general manager in the middle of the 2007 season. He seemed to have the organization headed back on the correct path when he traded Miguel Tejada (the first time) and Erik Bedard for a combined 10 players.

Talent began accumulating in a farm system that was once desolate. He knows how to acquire talent via trade. (I still don’t know how he got Hardy for basically nothing.) Look at the Orioles’ record though his time in Baltimore, and it’s a whole lot of fail, but the organization is in a better place than it was when he took over.

(I will admit that even I could have probably taken over the organization in 2007 and have it in a better place now. The organization in 2007 was in such bad shape that the bar for improvement was incredibly low.)

And I’ll concede that if MacPhail’s batch of young talent did work out like a lot of people thought it would – with Wieters and Jones becoming superstars and the rotation being totally homegrown studs – MacPhail could have turned out to be the king of Baltimore.

But over the past two years, I’ve become increasingly impatient with some of MacPhail’s moves and philosophies. Over his tenure in Baltimore, I’ve mostly given MacPhail the benefit of the doubt. Rebuilding an entire organization from the ground on up takes quite awhile, and so for the first few years of his tenure, I didn’t get too worked up over anything he did. But over the last two years, three things about MacPhail have been made abundantly clear that will probably keep him from ever fielding a competitive squad in Baltimore if he were to continue: 1) An inability to properly allocate a finite number of resources, 2) An insistence on not acquiring a lot of talent internationally, and 3) Ignorance.

The Orioles, as everyone knows, do not have the resources of the Yankees or Red Sox, but continue to spend the resources that they do have in the wrong places. MacPhail added a healthy amount of payroll to the big league roster in the off-season, with the only quality returns on the investments being from Hardy and, to a lesser extent, Mark Reynolds. Guerrero, Lee and Kevin Gregg have all been terrible (although Gregg could blow every save from this point forward and I’d still respect him for sticking up for himself and his teammates in Boston). This comes off the heels of last-season, in which MacPhail added Mike Gonzalez and the corpses of Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins.

The Orioles are not a team that should be adding payroll at the big league level in this fashion. There’s no way in hell the Orioles, a team with no shot at competing, should have trotted out an Opening Day payroll just under $87 million. Whether the payroll was that high to make fans think that the front office was “doing something” and “trying to win,” or whether it was to continue The Quest For .500, I’m not sure. It was probably both. But you know where that money could be better spent? Oh, I don’t know, how about the draft? The international market? How about scouting and player and development?

The Orioles drafted high schooler Nick Delmonico in the sixth round in this year’s draft, and is widely considered a very tough sign, which is why he slid down the draft the way he did. Are the Orioles going to hesitate to give Delmonico the extra cash in order to get him signed? Or are they going to let him go to college over, say, $500,000? (Which I understand is a lot of money, but it’s not a lot in baseball terms, and especially not when compared to what they spent the past two off-seasons.)

And take this past draft, for example. Why were so many safe college pitchers taken after Bundy instead of younger players with more upside? Is it because the Orioles needed to draft a lot of players on the less expensive side because their resources for the draft are limited because so much money was wasted on free agents? A general manager needs to understand where to apply the resources he does have, and MacPhail clearly lacks that understanding.

That lack of understanding on where to spend a limited number of resources connects with the Orioles’ other huge issue, which is largely ignoring the international market. I detailed the Orioles’ putrid track record of acquiring Latin American talent here. MacPhail shouts from the rooftops that he doesn’t want to spend a ton of cash on the international market, but he continues to waste money on aging free agents and relievers.

MacPhail’s comments to Steve Melewski of MASN (here and here) are downright depressing. In the interview, MacPhail consistently drives home the idea that he doesn’t want to spend $4 million to $5 million on one 16-year-old in Latin America, which is fine. But why not go the route of the Colorado Rockies and use your resources to sign a bunch of players to what end up being relatively small signing bonuses (in the grand scheme of the baseball economy)? It makes no sense. The Orioles need to attack all routes in which youth can be added, and with MacPhail’s bizarre stance on international spending, it’s become increasingly clear that MacPhail is not a general manager that explores all avenues for acquiring young talent.

I also listed “ignorance” as one of MacPhail’s issues that have become increasingly clear over the past two years. What I mean by that is simple. Some of the moves he makes would be stupid moves even if the Orioles weren’t in the position that they’re in as bottom feeders in the AL East. Signing a Type-A reliever. Handing multi-year contracts two years in a row to relievers. Signing a 36-year-old designated hitter when the last thing the club needed was a designated hitter. These are dumb moves whatever position your team finds itself in.

So MacPhail isn’t the best man for the job as general manager of the organization that is in perhaps the toughest spot in all of sports. The organization is in the same division as four teams, two of which are tops in baseball in terms of resources and the other two have perhaps the best farm systems in baseball. It’s an organization with a farm system that is probably in the bottom third in all of baseball. The player development chain is in need of an overhaul. The Orioles have plenty of dead weight on the major league roster, a lot of which is largely coming off the books after this season. But who’s to say MacPhail wouldn’t add more dead weight if he stayed on as general manager?

So who is the man to lead this rebuild? Are we really entrusting Peter Angelos to hire the right man for the job, to hire someone better than MacPhail? Assuming MacPhail leaves the Orioles upon his contract expiring – and my gut feeling is that he will – we have to trust Peter Angelos to make the correct hire for an organization that needs nothing less than a near-flawless general manager?

Like I said, there’s currently no window to compete for a playoff spot.

It’s that time of year again — someone has to go to the all-star game. Orioles fans are now trying to figure out who on the team is most deserving of an all-star selection and who will actually go to the game. Because, you know, someone has to go. And for whatever reason, the all-star game counts for home field advantage in the all-star game, which, as we all know, is ridiculously stupid.

The Orioles have three candidates for the all-star selection: J.J. Hardy, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones. Anyone who has watched even just a handful of games would say that those three have been the club’s best players. Each of the three have been about two-win players so far, according to FanGraphs (although Hardy has provided his value in significantly less plate appearances than either Wieters or Jones since he missed a month).

This year, the Orioles even have a player who’s actually deserving of an all-star game visit in Hardy. (It’s a foreign concept, I know.) If the American League needs a shortstop, Hardy will go. If Ron Washington wants a catcher, Wieters will go. And if Washington wants an extra outfielder, Jones will go. Simple as that. Whatever Oriole goes will be based on need.

Hardy has been the Orioles’ best player and is the club’s most deserving all-star even though he doesn’t even have enough plate appearances to qualify to be on a big league leaderboard. Hardy is batting .307/.369/.547 in 215 plate appearances. His .394 wOBA* would be second among big league shortstops if he qualified, and first among American League shortstops. His fWAR is lower than players like Asdrubal Cabrera and Alexei Ramirez because those players have played a good bit more.

*I realize that players and managers probably don’t look at wOBA and fWAR when selecting all-stars. But it’s easiest for me to sort through the candidates using all-encompassing statistics.

Hardy’s greatest roadblock to getting named to the all-star game is that Derek Jeter will get voted the starter. If Jeter is healthy at the time of the all-star game, he’ll start at shortstop and block a more deserving American League shortstop. Deserving shortstops include Hardy, Cabrera, Ramirez and Jhonny Peralta. Hardy could get squeezed out if Jeter takes up a spot. It looks like Jeter will be back in the Yankees lineup soon, so he should be good to go for the all-star game start.

Next up is Wieters, the defensive stalwart behind the dish for the Orioles. He ranks fourth among qualifying big league catchers in fWAR (1.8), based largely on his defense. Wieters is second among American League catchers in fWAR behind Alex Avila of Detroit (2.7). FanGraphs rates Wieters as the best defensive catcher in terms of defensive runs saved (nine) and stolen base runs saved (four). Wieters is throwing out nearly 43 percent of attempted base-stealers. With the bat, though, Wieters remains a work in progress. He’s hitting .257/.310/.398 and his .313 wOBA is tied for seventh-best among 11 qualifying catchers.

Russell Martin will probably start the game for the American League, with Avila certainly deserving of a backup spot. The guess here is that Wieters gets the nod to go to the all-star game for the Orioles as the third catcher behind Martin and Avila.

Adam Jones (.290/.334/.481) has an outside shot to represent the Orioles at the all-star game, but his issue is mainly that there are so many good outfielders out there. He ranks sixth among qualifying American League center fielders in fWAR (1.6), while he’s third in wOBA (.357). He is tied for 13th in fWAR among all qualifying American League outfielders, while he is 11th in wOBA. There are just too many good outfielders for Jones to make it this year.

Hardy is probably the most deserving of the all-star selection, but Wieters probably fits onto the roster better so that’s why I believe Wieters will represent the Orioles in Arizona. Hopefully Wieters will throw out five base-stealers and hit a home run, just for kicks.

J.J. Hardy has been the Orioles’ best player this season. There’s very little question surrounding that; it should basically be taken as fact at this point in the season even though he missed a month with a strained oblique muscle. Acquired this past winter for a couple of random relievers (why were the Twins so eager to give up Hardy for seemingly nothing?), Hardy has put up a .307/.369/.547 line this year, which is awfully valuable at the shortstop position. The Orioles have now made contact with Hardy’s representation about a possible extension to presumably bridge the gap to Manny Machado.

And Hardy has partially put to rest the idea floating around in my head that any player’s ability turns to dust once he puts on an Orioles uniform. For that, he deserves a nice round of applause. Or a small trophy. Anyhow, Baltimore Orioles J.J. Hardy has rediscovered Milwaukee Brewers J.J. Hardy, only he’s better now. There are a handful of ways the situation surrounding the 28-year-old slick fielding shortstop could unfold by the July 31 trading deadline and beyond. Here are four options with Hardy:

A.) Lock up Hardy to whatever terms necessary in order to bridge the gap at shortstop to top prospect Manny Machado. It would be a seamless transition and the Orioles would have quality play at the shortstop position until Machado arrives, and fans wouldn’t have to suffer through an entire year of Robert Andino playing shortstop in 2012. If it means giving Hardy some incentive to stay as far as extra dollars or years than the team would prefer, do it.

B.) Try to lock up Hardy to a team-friendly deal (in the area of two years, $15 million), but if he doesn’t accept it, deal Hardy for prospects.

C.) The Orioles are no where close to competing in the American League East, so the best move is to trade Hardy — the team’s best trade chip — for the best package of prospects available at the deadline. Hardy’s value is as high as it’s going to get and there’s no reason to be even entertaining an extension.

D.) Hold onto Hardy for the rest of the season, offer him arbitration and take the two draft picks as compensation this winter. Hardy will almost certainly be a Type A free agent.

Those are the Orioles’ options. My thoughts? Let’s get to it.

The problem with Option A is that Hardy will probably want at least a three or four year deal to ink an extension since the free agent waters would probably treat him quite well this winter. Hardy is currently producing at a high level with the bat at a premium defensive position, so the Orioles would have to compensate him quite well in terms of dollars and years for him not to test free agency.

The Orioles are not in a position to be committing any sort of significant dollar figures and years to many contracts at this point. It’s probably best to save that cash until the organization is actually competitive rather than spend a lot of money on a player that most certainly will not be on the next winning Orioles team. (In the meantime, dump that cash into the draft and international market.) And all teams, no matter what position they’re in, should be extremely wary of giving Hardy more than two years given his injury history.

(Side note: If the Orioles were to stupidly give Hardy a four-year deal, what happens when Machado comes up anyway? It’s not like Hardy, upon signing an extension, is going to agree to move to second or third base once the hot-shot prospect comes up. Hardy will want to stay at shortstop for as long as he can, as he should.)

The problem with Option B is that Hardy will probably not accept any team-friendly contract offer. Coming off two injury-plagued years in Milwaukee and Minnesota, Hardy might have signed a team-friendly two-year extension in March or April. But not now, when his value is sky high. Some team desperate for a shortstop will give him as many as five years this winter and hope that three of those five years turn out to be the slick fielding and power-hitting J.J. Hardy we see this season. And they’ll hope he doesn’t get injured too much (but he probably will).

The problem with Option C is that Baltimore management might not be planning to have a terribly busy July because they’ve outlined a bizarre and misguided attempt to finish .500 (Twitter tag: #thequestfor500) and have therefore hindered the development of young talent (i.e. signing Vladimir Guerrero, which effectively blocked the promising Nolan Reimold, a possible piece for the future who also happens to be one of the team’s better hitters right now). If the front office remains as staunch in their attempt to get to .500, they might not want to trade away their useful veteran pieces (Hardy, Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott, Koji Uehara) for prospects that could pay dividends down the line.

Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies lays out the reasons step-by-step of how this quest for .500 has manifested itself this year and will probably continue to do so in July here.

The problem with Option D is that if the Orioles don’t trade him, the draft picks resulting in Hardy leaving may not be as good as a package of prospects that a team desperate for a shortstop is willing to give up at the trade deadline.

Quite frankly, I don’t trust the front office all that much anymore due to incredible shortsightedness (signing Guerrero), lack of activity internationally (detailed here), lack of innovation and creativity (there seems to be very little effort to do business in ways no one else is, like finding the next market inefficiencies and exploiting them), and just plain idiocy (handing out multi-year deals to relievers in consecutive off-seasons). So I’m not terribly entrusting of Andy MacPhail and the people who surround him to do the correct thing in terms of Hardy’s situation.

What would I do? I’d offer him a team-friendly extension, just on the off chance that he accepts it. (After all, if Toronto’s Yunel Escobar agreed to a two year, $10 million extension with two club option years, maybe Hardy would agree to a two year, $15 million offer.) But chances are that Hardy and his representation will want as many as four years, as they should. I’d then trade him to the team offering the best package of prospects for him, assuming I believe that package is more valuable than two additional draft picks next June would be.

Check out Dave Cameron’s speculation on how the Orioles and Cincinnati could make a deal work involving Hardy here. I personally don’t have much idea on what two months of J.J. Hardy could bring back in a trade, but check out Cameron’s piece.

One of many issues with the Orioles’ organization that had been bothering me for the entire season was the state of the Orioles’ upper minors – in other words, the lack of talent at Triple-A Norfolk and Double-A Bowie. The troubling lack of immediate organizational depth was highlighted this week after Blake Davis was forced to play second base in the series finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday afternoon. Davis committed a costly error which helped the Pirates win that game.

On the surface, it just seems like another loss in a season that will feature many of them, but for one thing – it was the first time Davis had played second base all year. Once Ryan Adams was demoted to Triple-A to get more at-bats, the Orioles didn’t even have enough depth to call up someone who could actually play second base along with Robert Andino, who was already in the big leagues but had been exposed with regular at-bats.

Davis playing second base and committing that error was essentially a microcosm of the Orioles’ depth at the upper minors. After Zach Britton was promoted to the big leagues at an unexpectedly early date, Norfolk was left with nothing. Norfolk remains completely devoid of impact talent, with Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell and Chris Tillman – three very flawed players – among the most interesting of the players on that squad. I’m honestly shocked whenever I see that Norfolk won a game on a particular night.

Bowie, meantime, has some interesting prospects, but nothing that would find its way onto a Top-100 prospect list. Xavier Avery is an athlete with upside. LJ Hoes is a 2008 third-rounder who doesn’t have a set position. Joe Mahoney had a very nice year with the bat last year, but he was hurt for much of this year. Dan Klein is a future reliever for the big league club but may not pitch for the rest of the year due to a small SLAP tear in his right shoulder.

More simply put, there are no impact prospects on the way until Opening Day 2013 – at the very earliest. That’s when the next run of prospects, which include Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop and Bobby Bundy, could begin to knock on the door for the big leagues. Go lower into the minors, and fans will see some more nice prospects, including Parker Bridwell at Aberdeen. Dylan Bundy could be a late 2013 arrival, assuming he signs (he will).

(Machado and Schoop, by the way, have been named to the Futures Game, which takes place a day two days before the big league all-star game. Good for them.)

But as for now, there is no help on the way. Part of the how the Rays have competed in such a brutal division is by constantly churning out prospects year after year. Once one free agent leaves, there are multiple prospects vying for that vacated position. After Carl Crawford left for Boston and Johnny Damon became the full-time designated hitter upon the Manny Ramirez fiasco, Justin Ruggiano and Desmond Jennings were both ready to step in at left field once Sam Fuld turned back into Sam Fuld. (Ruggiano is currently manning left field for the Rays, and doing it well.)

And once James Shields leaves Tampa Bay, a stud pitching prospect Matt Moore will be ready to fill the void. It’s a never-ending cycle of prospects constantly vying for big league jobs in Tampa Bay, and it’s a large part of how they compete while withstanding key losses in free agency. It’s a next-man-up philosophy in Tampa, and it’s a model that Toronto is trying to copy, what with its fourth-ranked farm system in the game.

Jeff Zrebiec, one of two terrific Orioles beat guys for the Baltimore Sun along with Dan Connolly, puts the Orioles’ situation on the farm into context well in a blog post on Orioles Insider:

“But there remains a serious void at the upper levels of the minor leagues with players who can come up soon and help the Orioles win. How else can you explain two guys who weren’t even invited to big league spring training – Chris Jakubauskas and Blake Davis – occupying spots on the 25-man roster? There’s still plenty of time for this to change, but which guys in Bowie and Norfolk are making statements that they should be heavily considered for big league jobs next spring? I’m sure people are going to blame this guy or that guy, and that’s fine. But it has to be considered an organization-wide failure. Andy MacPhail heads the front office, so it’s certainly on him. It’s also on the player development and amateur scouting departments, both past and present.”

So I agree with all of that, especially the “organization-wide failure” part, and I think all fans would as well. The front office for the Orioles, along with the scouting and development folks they employ, must be held chiefly accountable for why there is not one impact prospect ready to help the Orioles at the big league level within the next 18 months. It’s inexcusable for a team that must be built through the farm system in order to compete in the AL East to be so lackluster in the upper minors at any time. While a front office can’t completely influence a farm system – some of it is just plain luck with prospects avoiding injuries and the like – that entity are still what must be held responsible for failures on the farm.

MacPhail would probably tell fans that the team has seen a lot of talent graduate from the upper minors to the big league club in the last couple of years – which is true – and therefore, there will inevitably be a temporary void in the upper minors – which is just an excuse.

So why in the world are the upper minors so devoid of talent? I can come up with two rather large reasons: 1) The lack of progress by those counted on to make progress, and 2) The lack of activity on the international front.

There were a bunch of players that Zrebiec pointed out in his post that are in make-or-break years in terms of putting themselves in a position to burst onto the big league club in 2012. The players he mentioned, all of whom I already wrote about above, are Bell, Snyder, Mahoney, Avery and Hoes. However, none of them have taken steps forward.

Bell, 24, is hitting .255/.297/.434 at Norfolk this year, while striking out 75 times and walking just 16 times. Both Bell’s approach and pitch recognition have kept regressing since the trade that brought him to the Orioles. Snyder, a former first round pick, has been staring at a hole at first base at the big league level for quite some time now. Snyder, 24, has gotten limited action in the big leagues, but has hit .261/.321/.414 at Norfolk this year. Orioles fans had high hopes for Snyder after he hit .343/.421/.597 in Bowie in the first half of 2009, but Snyder hasn’t been able to put up anywhere near those numbers at Triple-A. It doesn’t look like Bell or Snyder will ever be able to significantly contribute to the big league cause.

Mahoney, 24, had a big season last year, hitting .307/.366/.498 between Frederick and Bowie, but got hurt at the beginning of this year and recently returned to Double-A, where only has 55 at-bats this year. With Snyder and Mahoney, it’s particularly difficult to be a big-time prospect because they’re first basemen, and to be a valuable first baseman, one has to mash (and it’s not as if one can add a ton of defensive value at first). That caveat applies to Frederick first baseman Tyler Townsend, who has had a nice year, as well.

Avery and Hoes, both 21 years old, were Baseball America’s third- and fourth-best prospects coming into the year for the organization, respectively. Those two will probably not be the organizations third- and fourth-best prospects when Baseball America does its next rankings. Avery is a good athlete, but Zrebiec writes in his piece that he’s heard questions about his baseball instincts.

Avery is hitting .265/.320/.335 at Bowie after hitting .271/.337/.386 last season between Frederick and Bowie. Hoes, meantime, is hitting .255/.309/.340 between time at Frederick and Bowie this year. Hoes’ biggest issue might be that he doesn’t have a set position. However, both are young and can still turn it around, but probably not in time to be contributors for the big league club next year.

The club’s best prospect in the upper minors, right-handed reliever Dan Klein, is hurt and probably will not pitch again this season. Klein, who will be 23 in July, put up a 1.11 ERA in 32.1 innings between Frederick and Bowie before he got hurt. He struck out 37 batters and walked just six. If Klein had stayed healthy, he could have perhaps been a September call-up, but right now, the priority for the organization is to get their 2010 third rounder healthy for next year, when he can hopefully contribute in Baltimore.

That the Orioles’ top prospect at either Double-A or Triple-A is probably an injured reliever probably says it all.

The Orioles are also victimized by their embarrassingly minimal efforts on the international front. While the rest of their division is extremely active on the international front, Ken Rosenthal reported during spring training that the Orioles aren’t active anywhere internationally.  It goes without saying that the Orioles need to be extremely active on all fronts internationally to make up for the fact that they can’t out-spend the Yankees or Red Sox on the free agent market in order to be successful. That’s obvious.

So why are the Orioles so inactive on the international front? I have no idea. There are no excuses for being out-worked in the international market. The Orioles say there isn’t enough of a quality return on the international market to invest a lot into it, so they look primarily to the draft for quality returns.

While investing primarily in the top international talents may not have great returns, those returns can improve by spending on a greater amount of players without such high price tags. There are ways to make it work, and the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Jays all find a way to make it work. The “poor returns” excuse looks especially lame after handing Mike Gonzalez $12 million, Kevin Gregg $10 million, Vladimir Guerrero $8 million, Derrek Lee a base of $7.25 million.

MacPhail has also stated in the past that the Orioles don’t invest resources into the Dominican Republic because of the youngsters there don’t play baseball games as much as they’re handled by talent brokers with the design of making the youngster look great in individual workouts. Camden Depot beautifully shoots down this excuse here.

Now, the Orioles spend a lot in the draft in the MacPhail era and give out more than their fair share of over-slot bonuses, which is great. It really is. It’s much better than the way the draft was run before MacPhail showed up. But why limit yourself as an organization to just the draft? If an organization is in the Orioles’ position, that organization needs to be acquiring as much young talent as they possibly can from as many sources as possible, as Rosenthal wrote. That means acquiring talent both via the draft and everywhere around the world.

With the way the Orioles operate in the international market and given their situation in the AL East, they have to pull off a lot of A+ drafts. That’s impossible, as Rosenthal states. Too much pressure is being placed on the scouting department to essentially be the best drafting squad in the business because the Orioles are in the AL East and are not supplementing draft picks with international youth. And given that there are inevitable busts that come with the draft – which, as Rosenthal states, means Snyder, Billy Rowell and perhaps Matt Hobgood (although he’s still very young and can turn it around) – the organization is constantly behind their competition in the division.

The Orioles need more Jonathan Schoops in the farm system. Schoop, 19, was signed as a free agent out of Curacao in 2008 and is almost certainly considered a top-five prospect in the system by most in the know.

The Orioles’ system would look a lot better with a couple Jonathan Schoops in the upper levels.

This weekend, I saw Orioles 19-year-old prospect Parker Bridwell pitch in Aberdeen on Friday night and going to the U.S. Open on Saturday. I’ll start with the U.S. Open because that’s the event which I have more thoughts on.

The U.S. Open was held at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Md. My cousin is a huge golf fan who lives in the Philadelphia area, so naturally, my dad and I went with him to the tournament, which was held about an hour away from where I live. My dad and I are more casual golf fans than my cousin — we like watching the majors, but we aren’t going to tune in for the smaller tournaments. The three of us had attended one other major tournament, in 2005. It was the PGA Championship at Baltusrol Golf Club in Springfield, New Jersey.

That August Saturday in 2005 was the hottest day I’ve ever experienced. The temperature sat around 100 degrees the entire day and topped out at 105 degrees. Looking back, I have no idea how I, or any of those who I went with, handled it as well as we did. I was 14 years old at the time and ridiculous heat probably didn’t bother me as much as it does now. It was so hot that day.

This time around, the temperature sat around a completely tolerable 85-90 degrees all day with a nice breeze. And, with Congressional being a golf course and all, there was plenty of places with shade. The first thing I realized when I walked around the course was that it probably wasn’t a course that was typical of a U.S. Open. The rough didn’t seem too rough and the greens didn’t look terribly imposing. It looked like a place professional golfers could score well on (and they did).

My dad, cousin and I soon found out that the place to be was the 10th tee (as did many other fans). You could get really close to the golfers as they teed off. I saw Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy, among others, at the 10th tee. I ended up following around Mickelson around for parts of his front nine because he was the biggest name there and I wanted to see him. I followed McIlroy and Y.E. Yang, along with the group before them (Sergio Garcia and Robert Garrigus), for parts of the back nine.

The weirdest part of following McIlroy was that at the 18th tee, there weren’t many people. There might have been 40 or so people surrounding the 18th tee. A lot of people were waiting for him at the green, while others had already left. So at the 18th tee on Saturday, I was able to easily get close to the dominant leader’s tee shot. I found that somewhat odd.

Anyhow, in the gift shop after the all-day extravaganza (we entered the golf course around 12:30 p.m. and left around 9:30 p.m.), I saw a familiar face and heard a familiar voice. It was Caps play-by-play man Joe Beninati. My dad and I talked to him briefly. He’s a cool dude, and it certainly was not who I was expecting to meet at Congressional.

So, after going to two majors, I’ve come up with three criteria that anyone has to meet in regards to going to a golf tournament:

No. 1: You have to be a pretty big golf fan to enjoy yourself at a tournament. If you’re just a casual fan, you won’t know which players you’re looking at most of the time. No. 2: You need to be in pretty good shape. To thoroughly enjoy yourself throughout the day, you have to walk around the entirety of the course, seeing everything you want to see throughout the day. And golf weather is hot. You really do have to be in good shape. No. 3: Constantly hydrate yourself and eat something while you’re there. If you don’t, you’ll end up having a monster headache like I had when I got back into the car to go home. The dehydration won’t hit you while you’re at the course. It’ll hit you like a ton of bricks later, though.

One other thing before moving onto Bridwell — a narrative has been portrayed by the media that Tiger Woods is fading away and Rory McIlroy is The Next Tiger. I understand why some media and fans would like to move on from Tiger and place the game of golf primarily in the hands of a new generation of golfers. Tiger, pretty clearly, is not a great dude. And this is not just regarding all of the stuff that went down off the course — he comes off as an overly-arrogant guy in his on-course behavior and his snarky comments during interviews. The young golfers, meanwhile, seem like pretty decent human beings.

In short, the prevailing narrative seems to be: Rory, good; Tiger, bad!!!

Nevertheless, Tiger is the single person that re-energized the game of golf about 15 years ago. The media needs to recognize that without Tiger, there might not be a new generation of golfers. There might not be so many great young golfers starting their professional careers around this time. The Next Tiger, in his post-round press conference Sunday, even mentioned how he watched Tiger dominate when he was a youngster. Tiger created the high level of interest in the game of golf once upon a time that helped create this rush of youth in the game of golf and place the game in the good spot that it’s currently in.

While I recognize that part of the reason that Tiger wasn’t mentioned a whole lot at this tournament because he would have been at least 10 back of The New Tiger just like everyone else, there should be recognition that Tiger helped create this new generation of golf. The fact that Tiger Woods is not a good human being doesn’t change that.

I also believe that The New Tiger is the real deal. I think this was the first of many major championships. But the media’s proclamation that he is The New Tiger is kind of ridiculous at this point. He’s won one major. The only similarity between The New Tiger and Tiger is that they each won a major championship at a very young age. That’s it. The comparison is lazy. It’s also completely unfair to The New Tiger.

What can take golf to the next level in terms of interest is a re-focused Tiger taking on The New Tiger and the other young golfers in the third and fourth rounds of major championships in the future. Ratings would go through the roof if Tiger and The New Tiger were going head-to-head in the final round of a major tournament.

***

Onto Bridwell. The first thing I noticed about the right-handed throwing Bridwell on Friday night was that he has the prototypical projectable body for a pitcher — Aberdeen has him listed at 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds. Bridwell, the Orioles’ ninth round pick last year and drafted out of high school, could grow into his frame eventually and add some velocity.

Aberdeen was taking on Hudson Valley in the season opener for each squad. Bridwell pitched five innings, giving up no runs on four hits, striking out nine, walking none and hitting one batter. He also committed a balk. Hudson Valley hitters were helplessly waving at some of Bridwell’s off-speed stuff. From my seats along the third base line, it looked like a changeup that hitters were swinging and missing at, but apparently hitters were flailing at both his changeup and slider. Bridwell used his off-speed pitches very effectively, producing a ton of swing and misses on those pitches.

The radar gun at Ripken Stadium is wacky, so I couldn’t catch any accurate radar readings, though Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus writes that he sits 92-94 mph and touches 96. Bridwell seemed to use his off-speed stuff a lot — and why not, with the way he was dominating hitters with it? — but it’ll be interesting to see if he uses his fastball more later in the season. I have eight more games in my season plan this year, so I hope to see him pitch two or three more times. Quite honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bridwell is the top pitching prospect in the organization this side of Dylan Bundy once the season is over.

Ever since Jim Johnson came up to the big leagues, Jim Palmer has said that Johnson should be a starter. I remember one particular game when Johnson was in his first or second full year with the big league club — in reference to the filthy stuff Johnson was throwing during that game, Palmer said, “And that’s why he’s going to be a starter.”

And now the Orioles are in a situation where they only have three starters they can count on to make starts every five days at this point in Jeremy Guthrie, Zach Britton and Jake Arrieta. Brian Matusz’ situation is in flux, while Chris Jakubauskas is essentially serving as the unofficial fifth starter because Brad Bergesen and Chris Tillman did very little with the ample opportunities they were given at the big league level and now are down at Norfolk.

Which brings us back to Johnson. Johnson was a starter in the minor leagues, posting a 4.07 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 148.0 innings at Triple-A in 2007. He struck out 6.63 batters per nine innings and walked 2.92, but it’s unfair to deeply examine these numbers because it was, in baseball terms, a long time ago and Johnson is a completely different pitcher than he was then.

When Johnson got his first extended look in the big league bullpen in 2008, he averaged 93.5 mph on his fastball, 78.3 mph on his curveball and 85.5 mph on his changeup, according to FanGraphs. He also hardly ever used his changeup, throwing it 2.7 percent of the time in 2008. Now, Johnson has three above-average pitches, has added velocity to each pitch and throws all three for strikes. We usually call pitchers who can do that “starters.”

His fastball is up to 95.0 mph, and he uses it 71.9 percent of the time. Johnson’s velocity on his change, which he’s throwing 10.8 percent of the time, has jumped to 87.2 mph and his curve (thrown 17.3 percent of the time) has jumped to 80.1 mph this year. So it’s probably unfair to say that Johnson shouldn’t be given a shot as a starter because he wasn’t that good as a starter a handful of years ago at Triple-A. He’s a different guy now, with a wider array of pitches and more velocity.

His fastball is a hard sinker which induces a ton of weak groundballs. Johnson has a ridiculous 63.9 percent groundball rate, which screams “starter.” (His career groundball rate is 55.6 percent.) Johnson in the rotation would give the Orioles sinkerballers from both the left side and the right side. I love how much Johnson uses his sinking fastball, especially since a starting pitcher needs to be able to pitch off his fastball in the big leagues. I see the quality of Johnson’s arm and how well his skill-set translates to eating up innings, and I can’t help but think that he’s being wasted in the bullpen.

I do realize that Johnson’s current velocity probably wouldn’t be maintained as a starter, but even if his fastball velocity dips a tick or two, that’s not a huge deal because he’d still be sitting 93-94 mph, which is plenty of velocity as a starter. If Johnson was sitting at 93 mph in 2008, he would probably have been sitting around 91 mph as a starter, which is a bit more ordinary than what he would be as a starter now.

And I don’t like the idea, that, “Well, Johnson’s a really good reliever so he shouldn’t be tried as a starter.” The Orioles can’t let the fear of the unknown stop them from potentially uncovering an above-average starting pitcher. If Johnson were to not pan out as a starter, fine. If the velocity disappears and the quality of his pitches disintegrates to the point that he’s pretty hit-able than he should be, fine. The bullpen will always be there for him to fall back on.

There’s also the issue of figuring out who would take Johnson’s role as the bridge to Koji Uehara in the eighth inning. The Orioles may very well have to go through some short-term pain in the bullpen to figure out if they could have a long-term solution in the rotation, and it’s worth it to do so because it’s not like blown leads in the seventh inning are going to keep the club from going to the playoffs this year. It’s not like the Orioles have a surplus of viable starting pitchers — try a pitcher with three above-average offerings in the rotation.

And given the difference in value of a starting pitcher and a reliever, Johnson should absolutely be given an opportunity as a starter. You want a quality arm like Johnson’s throwing 200 innings, not 65. The top starting pitcher in fWAR last year was Cliff Lee at 7.1. The top reliever was Carlos Marmol at 3.1.

I’ll sometimes see other teams’ bullpen arms and think to myself, “That arm should really be in the rotation.” Well, other fans probably think that about Johnson. He can already go multiple innings, easily pitching two innings whenever needed. If I were the Orioles brass, I’d try to stretch Johnson out to three or four inning outings out of the big league bullpen whenever I could until the all-star break. At that point, I’d send him to Bowie first, and then Norfolk to let him start. He’d continue to build up his arm in non-pressurized environments and get the feel back for starting games. If all goes well, he’d be in the Orioles rotation by August.

And at the very least, trying Jim Johnson as a starter would make Jim Palmer shut up about at least one thing.