Will the Baltimore Ravens, shown here in training camp on Aug. 3, validate Super Bowl expectations?

Here are my predictions for the 2010 NFL season, and I’m sure most will be wrong. We’ll look back on these in five months. Predicted record and, if applicable, playoff seed in perentheses.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, No. 3 seed.) Yes, I’m a homer and writing that the Ravens will finish in first place in the division is a biased opinion. But for the Ravens to come in first in this division — one of the tougher divisions in the league — this is the year in which quarterback Joe Flacco must take the step from being the shy kid from Delaware to being the elite quarterback for a Super Bowl contender. Flacco took a big step in his progression last year, and he’ll have to take another step forward for the Ravens to get where they have to be. Everything else is in place for the Ravens — they have an elite running game, a vast array of weapons to choose from on the outside for Flacco, and a defense that should be better than it was last year. The holes in the team are minimal, but the biggest concern is not the cornerbacks (the Josh Wilson acquisition was big), but the right tackle situation. When will Jared Gaither be ready to go? No one knows. And don’t worry about the loss of Ed Reed to the PUP list — Tom Zbikowski will be quite good in his shoes.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card, No. 5 seed.) Dennis Dixon will hand a 3-1 or 2-2 team to Ben Roethlisberger. The defense in Pittsburgh is back healthy and will be the primary reason that the Steelers will make the playoffs as a wild card. Circle your calendars for the Steelers’ matchup in Baltimore on Dec. 5. That’ll be a huge game.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7.) This team won’t be as good as they were for much as last year (the Bengals swept the division), but they won’t be as bad as they were down the stretch. Carson Palmer will have a nice year, but the Bengals need to stick with their bread and butter: Cedric Benson. There could be three playoff teams coming out of this division, but I’ll stay safe and just go with two teams.

4. Cleveland Browns (6-10.) Mike Holmgren will make the Browns competitive again in the not-so-distant future. But as for now, Cleveland fans will have to sit through a season of Jake Delhomme.

AFC East

1. New York Jets (10-6.) With all the hype this team has created by opening their mouths, the 2010 Jets could be the most unlikeable football team in recent memory. They will not come anywhere close to the hype, but they’ll still be a fine squad. Rex Ryan’s defense will play like a Rex Ryan defense usually does — which is to mean, it’ll play excellently. Notoriously overrated Mark Sanchez will take a few small steps forward, but won’t be nearly good enough to turn the Jets into the 13-3, Super Bowl winning team that the Jets think they’ll be. It’ll be the same formula for the Jets as it was last year — great defense and an offensive line that wears down opposing defenses. The quarterback isn’t good enough, though, to get this team over the hump.

2. New England Patriots (9-7.) Tom Brady will light it up this year. The defense will not.

3. Miami Dolphins (8-8.) If I had any guts, I’d take this team to win the division, but since I don’t have any guts, I’ll stay safe and go with an 8-8 record. I like Chad Henne. Brandon Marshall is awesome. Ronnie Brown is great when he’s healthy. They have a really good offensive line. The defense is getting better. You know what? I found my guts. Let’s re-do these AFC East standings:

1. Miami Dolphins (10-6, No. 4 seed.) This will come back to haunt me.

2. New York Jets (9-7.) The Jets were actually pretty average last year. And since my two buddies on my radio show are Jets fans, this second-place prediction will make them angry, so I have to do it, right?

3. New England Patriots (9-7.) Now that I’ve picked the Patriots to finish so low, Brady will go for 5,000+ yards this year.

4. Toronto Jake Lockers Buffalo Bills (1-15.) This team is awful. Worst team in the league. But maybe they’ll beat the Jets again, just like last year.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4, No. 1 seed) They’ll be resting their starters in Week 17 once again. Bob Sanders needs to stay healthy for this team to perform to its fullest capabilities, but there’s no one in this division that will challenge them. Look out for Pierre Garcon to have a breakout year.

2. Tennessee Titans (10-6, wild card, No. 6 seed.) I like this team a lot and have them going to the playoffs as a wild card. I think Vince Young will have the best year of his career to date, I think Chris Johnson is the most dynamic offensive player in the league (no shock there), and I think Jeff Fisher is one of the best coaches in the league. If Johnson stays healthy, I’m convinced the Titans are a playoff team. I don’t know if they’re as good as they were down the stretch last season, but they’re still going to be a damn good team.

3. Houston Texans (8-8.) I’m not entering that bandwagon again. Like most, I love Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, but I’m sick of every year being the year for the Texans to make the playoffs — and then it not happening.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12.) I don’t even know what to say about this team. I need help. I don’t even know why I think they’ll go 4-12 and finish last in the division.

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers (12-4, No. 2 seed.) This division should be a cake-walk for the Chargers, but I fully expect them to flame out in the divisional round of the playoffs once they come off of their first-round bye. Why? Because the San Diego is soft as a pillow. The Jets wore down the Chargers by the third quarter in San Diego’s lone playoff game, and it was a fairly accurate representation of the Chargers. Look, Philip Rivers can sling it around with the best of them. But when push comes to shove in the playoffs and opposing teams in the playoffs are willing to play smash mouth football, the Chargers come up soft.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9.) So the Notre Dame thing didn’t quite work out for Charlie Weis, but at least he’ll be getting compensated for the rest of his life by the school (or so it seems.) I love Weis in the NFL as an offensive coordinator, though – there’s not a whole lot of coaches in the NFL that can put together the kind of quality gameplans that Weis can. Weis will maximize the abilities of a backfield that incudes Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and will get every ounce of talent out of Matt Cassel. I sense a decent year for the Chiefs and something to build on for next year.

3. Oakland Raiders (7-9.) Jason Campbell’s sense of normalcy comes about in…Oakland? Really? But there’s no player that could benefit more from a change of scenery than Campbell, who has the ability to be a decent quarterback but never got a fair shot in the District due to a variety of factors, but the fact that he was in a new offense every year was probably the biggest factor. And for the first time in a long time, the Raiders had a good draft. Oakland’s on the upswing like Kansas City is — watch out for this division as early as next season.

4. Denver Broncos (6-10.) TIM TEBOW!!!!!!!

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers (13-3, No. 1 seed.) Ok, the Packers’ defense doesn’t look that good. But it won’t matter in the regular season, where Aaron Rodgers will put up insane numbers and the Packers’ offense will produce the most points of any team in the league. I love everything about this offense — Rodgers is a MVP-in-waiting, Jermichael Finley is ready to become the league’s best tight end, Greg Jennings will be a beast, and Donald Driver is a perfect safety valve for Rodgers. The Packers will roll to the No. 1 seed in the NFC by out-gunning everyone. We’ll see how their defense shapes up come playoff time.

2. Minnesota Vikings (8-8.) Yes, I think the drop-off between the Packers and the second-place Vikings is five games. The defense will be very good for the Vikings (as will Adrian Peterson), but I feel like this edition of Brett Favre isn’t going to end well. Just a hunch. I think Minnesota fans need to be geared up for a lot of frustrating games similar to the one seen on Thursday night against the Saints. And Brad Childress graduating from the Andy Reid School of Game Management will cost the Vikings a game or two.

3. Detroit Lions (7-9.) I like this team going forward. I like their coach, Jim Schwartz, and their quarterback, Matthew Stafford — and it all starts with the head coach and quarterback for any team that wants to be competitive year in and year out. And any Detroit fan should looking forward to opposing quarterbacks running for their collective lives in the presence of Ndamukong Suh. He’s going to be a beast from Week 1 on.

4. Chicago Bears (5-11.) I liked this team as my sleeper as little as two weeks ago…but now I don’t.

NFC East

1. New York Giants (11-5, No. 3 seed.) This seems like the classic kind-of-sneaking-up-on-everyone-but-not-really team. Look, everyone knows who the Giants are — they won the Super Bowl a few years ago and have Eli Manning under center. But in terms of football in New York, everyone’s talking about Rex Ryan and the Jets. And in terms of the NFC East, I’ve head a whole lot of Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins talk with some Kevin Kolb talk sprinkled in, but no New York Giants talk. I like the Giants to have a huge bounce-back year after a disappointing campaign last season. The Giants should be able to have a very balanced offensive attack, and I love their front seven. The Giants’ secondary did look dreadful against Baltimore in the third preseason game…but the preseason doesn’t matter, right?

2. Dallas Cowboys (10-6, wild card, No. 5 seed.) Tony Romo will put up some gaudy fantasy numbers this year (or so I hope — I have him in the fantasy league that I pay the most attention to), as will all of the Cowboys’ skill players on offense. And DeMarcus Ware may be the best defensive end in the game. But I expect Dallas to get smashed in Green Bay in the divisional round of the playoffs — it’ll their Minnesota experience last January all over again.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7.) I like the Eagles more than most, and I like Kevin Kolb a lot more than most. Kolb wasn’t ready to be a quality NFL quarterback last year, but I think he’ll fill in for Donovan McNabb just fine this year. I do think that DeSean Jackson will become less of a deep threat for the Eagles — Kolb doesn’t have the kind of arm McNabb has — but Jeremy Maclin will become a quality possession receiver for the Kolb, as will tight end Brent Celek. Kolb’s ready for this job now. As for the coach, Andy Reid, his players will always absolutely play hard for him. But Reid is one of the worst game managers in the entire league, which drives the Philadelphia fan base crazy and usually costs the Eagles dearly in a big game (Reid’s time management skills and the lack of balance on offense are both alarming.)

4. Washington Redskins (8-8.) Like Andy Reid’s players, Mike Shanahan’s players will definitely play hard for him, which was a quality that was missing from the Redskins last season. Shanahan’s presence — as well as new general manager Bruce Allen’s — adds respectability and an identity to a franchise that lacked any last year. Donovan McNabb is a significant upgrade over Jason Campbell, and I like Clinton Portis in Shanahan’s offense. The defense should be solid. But there’s not enough firepower on the perimeter for the Redskins – on top of their leaky offensive line – for me to predict anything more than an 8-8 season.

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints (11-5, No. 2 seed.) The Super Bowl champs will have a target on their backs all season, but there’s no reason why the Saints won’t win this division. They’re ready for another run at a Super Bowl.

2. Carolina Panthers (9-7, wild card, No. 6 seed.) Jimmy Clausen isn’t the starting quarterback, but I really like this kid. I watched a lot of Notre Dame games last year because my roommate from my freshman year of college loves Notre Dame and would watch them every Saturday. Let me tell you — nothing came easy for Clausen on the field during his days at Notre Dame. Charlie Weis’ play-calling abilities never translated over to the college level and Clausen’s offensive lines sucked. Clausen was always running for dear life and chucking the ball downfield to Golden Tate (because that was the extent of the Notre Dame offense.) I always liked how Clausen competed in college, he’s an accurate passer, he has a strong arm and is in a great situation in Carolina relative to the situations many rookie quarterbacks find themselves in. But that’s for next year. As for this year, I have no idea why Carolina is my wild card. Just a gut feeling.

3. Atlanta Falcons (7-9.) I know nothing about this team.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14.) I have no clue what to write.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers (10-6, No. 4 seed.) Winner by default. Could sweep the division. This division is horrid.

2. Arizona Cardinals (6-10.) Derek Anderson is horrible, but Matt Leinart was worse.

3. Seattle Seahawks (5-11.) Pete Carroll may one day become a successful NFL coach, but not right now.

4. St. Louis Rams (4-12.) Bradford hands off to Jackson…Bradford hands off to Jackson…

MVP: Chris Johnson…Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers…Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis…Coach of the Year: Jeff Fisher…Comeback Player of the Year: Jason Campbell.

Playoffs: Wild Card Round

Baltimore over Tennessee. Chris Johnson nearly carries the Titans to the divisional round all by himself.

Pittsburgh over Miami. The Dolphins can’t stop Ben Roethlisberger in a game that the Steelers take full control of by the third quarter.

New York Giants over Carolina. The Giants’ front seven stuffs the Panthers’ rushing attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Dallas over San Francisco. I can’t trust Alex Smith.

Divisional Round

Indianapolis over Baltimore. It’s the same old, same old song and dance…Peyton Manning beats the Ravens.

Pittsburgh over San Diego. Remember when I wrote that the Chargers are as soft as a pillow? Yeah, that.

Green Bay over Dallas. Remember when I wrote that the Cowboys would get smashed in Green Bay in the divisional round? Yeah, that.

New Orleans over New York Giants. Drew Brees out-guns Eli Manning in an entertaining game that includes plenty of passing yards.

Championship Sunday

Green Bay over New Orleans. I want 90+ points in this game. In the freezing cold in Green Bay.

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh. The Colts’ defense gives Peyton Manning enough time to figure out the Steelers’ defense, and then it’s all over once he does.

Super Bowl

Indianapolis over Green Bay. In an incredibly entertaining Super Bowl, Peyton Manning doesn’t make the crucial mistake this time. Instead, he gets his second ring. Super Bowl MVP: Peyton Manning. Duh.

When I heard that the Baltimore Orioles’ 2010 first-round pick and third overall selection Manny Machado was going to be playing for the Aberdeen IronBirds for several games once the Gulf Coast League ended its season, I was really excited that arguably the top shortstop prospect in all of baseball would be coming to Aberdeen, where my dad and I have had a nine-game season ticket plan for eight years.

There was just one problem: I was going down to College Park for the start of my sophomore year of college at the same exact time that Machado — and other prospects — were coming to Aberdeen for a brief time to close out their seasons. So, I thought I wouldn’t get to see Machado, but my dad would. Good for my dad, bad for me.

Anyway, I decided to come home this weekend for my sister’s birthday and it just so happened that our final game at Aberdeen this season was this weekend, too. So when I walked in my house and found the tickets for Saturday night’s game, I got excited. Real excited. I was going to see Machado, who is the most highly touted prospect ever to play for Aberdeen, even in front of established big leaguer Nick Markakis.

Not only that, but my dad and I were going to be treated to an Aberdeen roster that, from what I recall, had never been so loaded with prospects in our eight-year run of having a nine-game plan. The roster currently includes Machado, Dan Klein (pitcher, 2010 third rounder), Connor Narron (infielder, 2010 fifth rounder), Parker Bridwell (pitcher, 2010 ninth rounder) and Mychal Givens (infielder, 2009 second rounder.) I was pumped up to see them.

They didn’t disappoint in a 3-1 Aberdeen victory. Photos are below. I uploaded the photos to Facebook and copy and pasted them to the site, so don’t click on them because the photos link back to Facebook.

Above is the 18-year-old Narron at third base. He went 1-for-4 at the plate with a single, and made a throwing error at third.

Above is 25-year-old starting pitcher Tyler Sexton. He went six innings, giving up two hits and three walks while striking out five.

Above is the 20-year-old Givens at second base.

The photo above shows Givens connecting on a leadoff homer in the home half of the first inning. Givens finished 1-for-3 with the homer and a walk. Givens oozes of athleticism. I love his bat speed.

Above is Machado. He finished 2-for-3 on the night with a two singles and a walk. It looked to me like Machado had an advanced approach at the plate, as he was willing to take strikes and lay off the off-speed junk. Machado just turned 18 this past July.

Machado.

The above photo shows Machado sharply hitting a single to the opposite field with two strikes. On each of his singles, he was able to go get a pitch on the outside corner and drive it to the outfield — the first, to right field; the next, to center.

Machado in the on-deck circle.

Machado.

Above is Klein, who got the final four outs for Aberdeen to preserve the victory. He induced a long flyout off a hanging breaking ball for the final out in the eighth and struck out the side in the ninth for his first save as an IronBird.

Sorry I’ve been non-existent on the blog lately. The first week back at college is a busy time, so there’s not much time for blogging. But now that I’m settled in, I should (hopefully) be on the blog more often.

As I walked around campus this week, something was amiss that wasn’t really surprising at all, but still very disappointing. Someone walking around the College Park campus would have no clue that Maryland football had its season opening date with Navy in Baltimore on Monday.

The enthusiasm for the football is that low.

Students are rather indifferent about the beginning of Maryland’s football season, seemingly resigned to a losing season this year — maybe not as bad as last year, but a losing season nonetheless. There’s virtually zero excitement among students that the season is starting (at least, as far as I can tell.) Sure, the students will still go to the games and will get a little bit excited if the team starts fast. But as for now, the students just don’t give a damn.

I’m not trying to judge about whether the students’ apathy is right or wrong, but I’m just telling you what the atmosphere around College Park is for the football team is. A quick start could change that quickly, but Maryland will be significant underdogs in two of their first three games (against Navy and at West Virginia.) And if Maryland does get off to the slow start that it looks like it might, get ready for The Ralph Friedgen Watch to get rolling early in the season.

Apparently the students aren’t the only ones who have taken a step back from the football team — according to a report by Jeff Barker of The Baltimore Sun, sales for season ticket packages and family packs are way down, and the school is struggling to fill up its brand new suites. I’m sure the economy plays some part in the decrease in ticket sales, but the bottom line is that fans are much more willing to shell out for season tickets if a competitive team is on the field. A 2-10 season doesn’t help bring in new customers and keep long-time ones.

Even if excitement is way down, I’ll be spending Labor Day on Monday at M&T Bank Stadium for Maryland’s season opener against Navy and, you know what? I’m looking forward to it. After all, it’s football. I love football. Everyone loves football. And the beginning of the college football season means we’re just one week from the much higher quality and more entertaining brand of football demonstrated in the NFL the Baltimore Ravens playing the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.

I’m very pleased to see these two teams playing — it makes too much sense for these teams not to play (the campuses are about 30 miles away from each other.)  It looks like Navy will be about a touchdown favorite in this game, which seems like a fairly appropriate spread.

I’ll be seeing Navy’s wacky triple option offense in person for the first time, which I’m excited about seeing (although, I’m sure the Maryland defense isn’t particularly looking forward to having to stop it.) Navy’s triple option is quarterbacked by senior Ricky Dobbs (6-foot-1, 203 pounds), who will run all over the Maryland defense if the unit performs anything like it did last year. On the defense last year, Maryland struggled mightily just to tackle. If that continues, lots of Maryland fans could be headed for the exits early on.

It’s been so long since I’ve seen Navy play — even on television — and it’s been since December since I’ve seen Maryland play, so I don’t really know what to expect. But I do know that if Maryland hasn’t significantly improved since last December, they’ll get beat handily by Navy. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt right now to Friedgen that his team has improved by quite a bit from last year’s mountains of inexperience and injuries (they do have a pretty low baseline, after all), but I don’t know how they’ll handle Navy, a team that can give anyone fits.

Still, though, I have a weird feeling that Maryland plays really well and pulls out a win. Unfortunately, everything but my weird-gut- feeling-that’s-biased-by-going to-Maryland points to a Navy victory. We’ll see.

So, I’m looking at Maryland’s home dates this year: Morgan State (9/11), Florida International (9/25), Duke (10/2), Wake Forest (10/30), Florida State (10/20), and North Carolina State (11/27). If you’re looking for more reasons for Maryland’s drop in ticket sales, then look no further than the slate of home games — the only interesting home date is the Florida State game. Ick.

(Side note: Tonight, I’m headed to the Aberdeen IronBirds’ game, where Orioles’ prospects Manny Machado, Mychal Givens and Connor Narron will all presumably be in the lineup. I’m very excited.)

Quarterback Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens connected with wide receiver Anquan Boldin for a nine-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter against the New York Giants on Saturday night. The Ravens defeated the Giants, 24-10. Flacco and Boldin are pictured above in a training camp practice in Westminster, Md. on August 3.

I’ll be honest with you right from the outset here — I didn’t watch the second half of the Baltimore Ravens’ 24-10 victory over the New York Giants. Once the second stringers come in, preseason football becomes brutal. As much as I would have loved to see the Ravens and Giants’ second and third stringers play sloppy football and trade punts for an hour and a half, I decided to watch the Baltimore Orioles’ game. But here are my thoughts on the Ravens’ first stringers:

-Joe Flacco (21-for-34, 229 yards, two touchdowns and one interception) looked great. The first offensive series was brutal, but after that, Flacco was clicking on all cylinders. Ravens’ offensive coordinator Cam Cameron adjusted to the Giants’ pressure and the offensive line’s initial struggles by switching to a no-huddle offense and calling for quick passes. It worked. Flacco got on a roll by making a lot of quick reads and hitting his receivers in stride. And when the Giants did get to him with pressure, Flacco stepped up into the pocket very well in evading the pressure.

-The receivers got open and made some really nice catches to help out their quarterback. This doesn’t seem like much, but to Ravens fans, having receivers getting open and making tough grabs is nothing to take for granted. The receivers basically got open at will, and I’m not sure if was because of the receivers or the Giants’ secondary — the Giants’ passing defense looked awful.

-I could definitely get used to Flacco-to-Anquan Boldin touchdown connections.

-Tight end Todd Heap looked fantastic. He was making acrobatic catches for the first time in a few years, and as far as I could tell, there wasn’t a trainer in sight alongside Heap. Remaining healthy has been a huge obstacle for Heap in the past.

-One receiver that couldn’t avoid a trainer was Donte’ Stallworth, who will unfortunately be out until at least mid-season with a broken foot. This is a huge downer for the Ravens’ offense, which was counting on Stallworth to be the big deep threat. How good Stallworth looked in camp and the preseason makes this even worse. Stallworth has been injury-riddled in the past, but it’s been due to hamstring problems. My guess is that this injury means Demetrius Williams probably will make the squad.

-I liked the fact that Ray Rice wasn’t put in the line of fire much. The Ravens absolutely cannot afford to lose him — he’s the centerpiece of their offense. That’s part of the reason why I thought the first-team offense didn’t run much — 1) Rice doesn’t need to be getting battered by linebackers in the preseason, and 2) Cameron knows what the running game can do, so he wants to work exclusively on the passing game.

-While it’s fine that Cameron is pass-happy in the preseason, he needs to return to a balanced attack in the regular season. Rice will need 25 touches, and Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain will need their fair share of carries, too. The Ravens’ offensive line is still much more suited to go straight ahead than to drop back, and the Ravens’ strength is still running the ball despite Flacco’s maturation and the presence of Boldin.

-Ravens’ left tackle Michael Oher got flagged for a false start that I didn’t think was a false start — I just thought he got off the line so quickly that the referee just assumed it was a false start. This happened a good amount of times last season, where referees were fooled by Oher’s freakish quickness.

-How many times were Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata held on Saturday? A lot — but it was never flagged.

-The Ravens’ first team secondary — yes, the secondary — looked great, in part because the Ravens could get pressure from the front four. It was good to see the corners not giving up much to the Giants’ receivers. I love the Ravens’ depth at safety with Tom Zbikowski and Haruki Nakamura. There’s no reason for Ed Reed to rush back.

-The broadcasters on television were getting on the Ravens’ defense for the phantom tackles they applied to Brandon Jacobs, which would be valid complaints — in the regular season. There’s no reason for the first-team defense to get in front of that mountain of a man in the open field in a meaningless preseason game. That’s an injury waiting to happen.

My first reaction to the news that Stephen Strasburg needed Tommy John surgery to repair a tear in his right elbow was that I felt horrible for Washington Nationals fans — and that remains my foremost thought. I can’t imagine what it would be like to be a diehard fan of the Nationals right now.

After a long period of time without a team, Washington baseball fans have been treated to horrific baseball of late – Nationals’ history has been worse than that of the Baltimore Orioles spanning the last few years. That’s bad — really bad. Then, Nationals fans were blessed with the No. 1 pick in the correct year and ended up with Strasburg, a pitcher with once-in-a-decade talent and a pitching repertoire that was among the best in the big leagues as soon as he put on a Nationals jersey.

Strasburg was the centerpiece of the Nationals’ rebuilding program, the great white hope. Things were slowly coming together for the Nationals — with Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, they had the beginnings of a really nice, young starting rotation. They had Drew Storen at the back end of the bullpen. They already had one of the best players in the big leagues, Ryan Zimmerman, over at third base. And 17-year-old Bryce Harper, whose potential is seemingly limitless, was signed and ready to begin his ascent through the Nationals’ farm system. Things were looking way up.

And one morning, it seems like all of it, ever so quickly, falls apart. It really does feel that way for Nationals fans right now. For Orioles fans, I’ll try to wrap a little context around the loss of Strasburg to Tommy John — it would be like if Orioles fans found out – on the same day – that Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta would all undergo Tommy John surgery. Imagine how you’d feel if that scenario played out — and that’s how Nationals fans feel right now. My buddy, who’s a Red Sox fan, said the Nationals losing Strasburg to Tommy John would be like if the Red Sox lost Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

But you know what? Even though I spoke in the past tense in terms of Strasburg’s potential earlier in the post, it’s far too early to write off Strasburg as another pitcher claimed by injury. Strasburg can still be the centerpiece of the rebuilding program in Washington. Strasburg can still be one of the great pitchers in baseball. As bad as things seem right now, in reality, it’s not as bad as it seems. Plenty of pitchers have come back from Tommy John surgery better than ever — just ask Josh Johnson, who recovered from Tommy John to be one of the best pitchers in the game today.

All that Nationals fans can do is think in a positive nature — that Strasburg will be the next Johnson, that Strasburg will return better and healthier than ever. Even still, Nationals fans can’t begin to speculate how Strasburg’s pitching repertoire will be affected by the surgery and lengthy rehab – they’ll drive themselves crazy. They just need to hope for the best. And for fans of baseball, we should be hoping for the best along with Nationals fans — because a baseball world with Strasburg is a better place than without him. The more great and exciting players there are, the better.

But at some point, the Nationals have to stop grieving about Strasburg and look towards the future and this offseason. Here is part of what Dave Cameron of FanGraphs had to say about the effect Strasburg’s injury has on the Nationals’ organization:

“This is a loss for the game. Obviously, it’s a pretty significant blow to the Nationals as well, who now have to re-think their path to contention and potentially push back their time-frame a year or two. If they were thinking of re-signing Adam Dunn before, they almost certainly shouldn’t now. Losing Strasburg for 2011 and getting a questionable version of him for 2012 pushes the Nats back into long-term building mode, as they just lost a player they simply can’t replace. This injury has a significant effect on the decisions Washington has to make this winter.”

In the near term, like Cameron states, the Nationals are likely to delve deeper into a rebuilding mode this offseason than if Strasburg was healthy. I doubt Nationals’ management has any interest in putting big dollars into free agent pieces this offseason when the team’s short-term potential just changed for the worse in such a radical fashion. With Strasburg in his second year at the top of the rotation and a healthy Zimmermann, the Nationals might have been an interesting team in the National League East next year. Probably not so much anymore — the offseason game plan might have changed from adding a bat and a starter to getting a prospect or two for Josh Willingham.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention this before, but a really good point was made by Jim Callis of Baseball America on Twitter on Friday: Strasburg’s 2.6 WAR that he accumulated during his brief time this year will eclipse every other 2009 draftee through 2011 even though he won’t play next year. So there’s that.

My buddy and I were having what 99.4% of the world population would categorize as an extremely bizarre debate between a 19-year-old and a 20-year-old — in the wake of Trevor Cahill suddenly being thrown about in the Cy Young conversation, we were discussing the merits of traditional pitching metrics (such as wins, ERA, BAA and WHIP) and more advanced metrics (such as FIP, xFIP and WAR.)

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs weighed in on Thursday about the Cahill-for-Cy talk:

“After Trevor Cahill lowered his ERA to 2.43 last night, Buster Olney tweeted that his numbers made Cahill a top contender for the AL Cy Young award. Keith Law quickly responded, noting that Cahill was 31st among AL starters in WAR and had a 4.07 FIP, suggesting that Cahill was in no way a Cy Young candidate despite the shiny low ERA.

Olney and Law clearly approach the award from different angles. Buster is more traditional, and prefers to use the numbers that have always been the standard for evaluating pitchers. Keith just wants to reward the guy that he thinks pitched the best, and doesn’t care about the way things have always been done. But their discussion raises an interesting question: what role should our stats have in the Cy Young discussion?”

I should mention that I love Cahill. He’s a big guy, works very quicky, has plus command and induces a ton of ground balls. I saw Cahill, one of Oakland’s many young arms, at Camden Yards this year in May. I didn’t know much of anything about Cahill before the game started, but I sure knew about him by the third inning. I was impressed. So even if I mention that advanced metrics aren’t incredibly kind to Cahill, remember that I really like this kid now and going forward.

But what should determine a Cy Young Award winner? Surely, there’s no one overarching statistic that can tell us who should win the Cy Young, although I suppose WAR attempts to do just that. In the argument that I had with my buddy, I was much more for the advanced pitching metrics (to go along with ERA), while my buddy had a fascination with traditional pitching metrics, especially WHIP.

I told him repeatedly that WHIP, and BAA for that matter, are both meaningless because each weighs a swinging bunt single the same as a home run, and each statistic is heavy on luck — much of the time, it’s no fault of the pitcher that a batted ball fell in for a hit. WHIP is also a poor metric for pitching performance because the numerator and denominator are different — walks and hits come on a per-batter basis, but the denominator focuses on per-inning performance. Needless to say, my buddy refuses to think WHIP is meaningless — in fact, he feels like it’s very meaningful – even though all of the evidence says otherwise.

My buddy then asked me if I thought OPS-against was a decent tool to use when evaluating pitchers as opposed to non-weighted statistics such as BAA. I said it was a lot better than BAA, because at least OPS-against begins to weigh positive outcomes for a hitter, but even then, there are much better tools to use to evaluate pitchers.

When I told him about FIP and how it theorizes that pitchers only have reasonable control over walks, homers allowed and strikeouts, he scoffed at me. He couldn’t believe that of all a batter’s base hits, only homers were accounted for. I told him that a ball in play falling in for a hit — or falling into a defender’s glove — has a ton to do with luck and the quality of the defense behind the pitcher. Therefore, by taking balls in play out of the equation, you can have a much better feel for how a pitcher has actually pitched rather than how well his defense fielded or how lucky the pitcher was. One can evaluate how well a pitcher has controlled the things he can control, or at least reasonably so.

My buddy said FIP is bull crap because to ignore all hits but home runs is idiotic. He also mentioned that taking home runs into account wouldn’t be fair, either, because of the difference in home parks around the league — which is when I mentioned that xFIP normalizes a pitcher’s home run rates. While FIP and xFIP theorize that pitchers have little to no control over whether balls in play become hits or not, my buddy thinks that pitchers definitely have reasonable control over whether a ball in play becomes a hit.

Personally, I’m not sure where I fall in right now. I’m not sure if I’m on the sabermetric level of thinking, which seems to think that no pitcher has any control over whether a ball in play becomes a hit, but I certainly believe luck and defense play a significant role in if a ball in play becomes a hit. I just don’t know if luck and defense play the entire role. So let’s examine, shall we?

For example, a big ground ball pitcher like Cahill (56.0% groundball rate) would logically seem to induce more outs on balls in play than a pitcher who didn’t have as high of a groundball rate, right? Groundball pitchers would seemingly have a lot more success than someone living up in the zone, right? Wrong.

Cameron had another post about Cahill later Thursday:

“One comment that keeps arising, however, is about the correlation between Trevor Cahill’s BABIP and his sinker, specifically his ground ball rate. Several people assert that Cahill is inducing weak, easy to field contact by pounding his sinker at the bottom of the strike zone, and that’s why his BABIP is just .217. There are a few problems with this assertion, though.

We know that BABIP on groundballs is higher than on flyballs, as a ball is more likely to sneak between two infielders than it is to fall in front of an outfielder. In general, groundball pitchers will post higher than average BABIPs, not the other way around, though the effect is generally pretty small.

The other problem… well, we’ll just demonstrate it this way.

Trevor Cahill: 56% GB%, 14.9% LD%, 29.1% FB%, .217 BABIP
Justin Masterson: 62.3% GB%, 14.9% LD%, 22.8% FB%, .344 BABIP

The argument that this particular skillset is the driver of a low batting average on balls in play falls apart when you consider that Masterson, who gets more groundballs and has an identical line drive rate, is posting one of the highest BABIPs in all of baseball. We cannot just see two variables and assume that one is the cause of the other. Cahill has a high groundball rate, and he has a low BABIP, but there’s just no evidence that the former is driving the latter.”

So maybe having a dominating sinker doesn’t mean you’ll definitely have a lower than normal BABIP. Maybe it is all about luck and defense in coorelation with whether a given ball in play becomes a hit. But a pitcher like Roy Halladay, with the quality of their repertoire, would surely have more control over whether balls in play become hits than, say, Jeremy Guthrie would, right? Seems logical enough. Halladay has a ridiculous repertoire; Guthrie, average. Hitters would seemingly put much better swings on a Guthrie fastball than a Halladay cutter in on their fists, right? And those balls put in play off of Guthrie would then be harder hit balls than off of Halladay, increasing the chance that these balls fall in for hits off Guthrie, right?

Well, I just looked up the respective BABIP numbers for Halladay and Guthrie. Halladay sits at .301, right around where pitchers usually sit. Guthrie is, surprisingly, at a very low .269.

I’m blown. Maybe it really is all about luck and defense. What other ways can you possibly explain Guthrie having a lower BABIP than Halladay, by such a degree? How can one possibly say that a pitcher can influence whether balls and play become hits or not when we see that Guthrie has a BABIP 32 points lower than Halladay and that Cahill/Masterson comparison?

The answer? We probably can’t. So does it mean that we look solely at the things pitchers can control when deciding the Cy Young winner? Do we just look at homers allowed, walks and strikeouts? It seems logical, but it also seems like a very incomplete picture.

I love FIP and xFIP when evaluating pitchers because it normalizes luck, defense and, for xFIP, home run rates, but it doesn’t show us how many runs a pitcher has actually given up — just how many runs he should be giving up, or is likely to in the future. We get to know about a pitcher’s end results with good ol’ ERA, which everyone loves. I like to take pitcher’s ERA and stack it up against his FIP and xFIP, where I can tell right away whether that ERA is likely to shoot up in the future or not. And we can also examine a pitcher’s BABIP in predicting future performance for a pitcher.

I like to use WAR, as well, in order to study a pitcher’s value to his team, and here’s another I like to use — plain old innings pitched. In this day and age with the high use of bullpens and the lack of starters like Halladay that can consistently go deep into games, those pitchers who can log seven to nine innings per start become uber-valuable to their team (and especially their team’s bullpen, who gets a break from having to pitch four or three innings.) To me, the worthless statistics in examining pitchers are wins, WHIP and BAA.

But this brings up the biggest question of them all — should we just look at what should have happened in regards to these pitchers’ results when evaluating the Cy Young winner, or do we just look at what we know has happened (in terms of runs allowed)? Olney took a shot at this over on Twitter on Thursday after he tweeted on Wednesday that Cahill was a legitimate Cy Young candidate. In a series of five tweets from Olney:

“The premise that Cy Young candidates should be judged on what their numbers should be, rather than what they actually are, is amusing. That thought process certainly would have altered the results in 1961 — because I guess Roger Maris wasn’t supposed to hit 61 homers. The Dodgers, I guess, should not have won the ’88 World Series; Bucky Dent should have flied out to left. Lucky? Really? They did it. The # say Orel Hershiser wasn’t supposed to pitch 59 consecutive scoreless innings. DiMaggio wasn’t supposed to hit in 56 straight. Were the ’07 Rockies not supposed to make the WS, based on the numbers before their streak? C’mon. The # are what they are, until they aren’t.”

I’m not sure what Maris, the 1988 Dodgers, Bucky Dent, Orel Hershiser, Dimaggio, or the 2007 Colorado Rockies has to do with the 2010 Cy Young race, but his point is clear. Olney feels like we should only measure a pitcher’s performance with what we know has occurred, not what may have occurred if that pitcher had a better defense or if that pitcher played in a friendlier home park. He feels like we should only go by what has actually happened. And by those standards, sure, Cahill — according to the lack of runs he’s given up — should be an AL Cy Young contender.

But, personally, I can’t just ignore FIP, xFIP and WAR. I can’t penalize a Cy Young contender other than Cahill who may not have the kind of defense the Athletics have. I can’t penalize a contender whose luck obviously isn’t anywhere near Cahill’s, and I also can’t penalize another contender who doesn’t have the privilege to play in that pitcher’s paradise in Oakland. We know based on research that pitchers only have reasonable control over homers allowed, walks and strikeouts, so we can’t just ignore the advanced metrics that emphasize the aspects of the game that a pitcher can reasonably control. And one can’t ignore WAR, which attempts to measure the value of a pitcher to his team.

I was also having this Cy Young discussion with Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies on Twitter. He said the following when evaluating Cy Young candidates:

“Use everything; weight appropriately.”

And you know what? As simplistic as it seems, he’s correct. But how much weight does a voter give to FIP and xFIP, as opposed to ERA? Do wins, WHIP and BAA hold any weight at all? (I hope not.) This is the battle Cy Young voters will have to grapple with. Cameron, in his FanGraphs article that I started this blog post with, wrote of the difficulty in weighing these metrics:

“So, just like I would not rely solely on ERA to make a judgment about who deserves the Cy Young award, neither would I rely solely on FIP. When trying to evaluate how a pitcher did in the past, ERA includes too many things that aren’t under his control, while FIP strips out too much. If I had to choose one or the other, I’d go with FIP over ERA, because I think it gets you closer to reality, but we don’t have to choose. We can look at the whole picture, and that’s what I suggest people do with their Cy Young picks.”

Do you know what the beautiful thing is? That we’re actually having this discussion. It’s the beauty of baseball. We can argue and argue and argue some more over statistics, and we can all come upon different conclusions. It’s part of what makes baseball so special. And with time, more statistics are making their way into the mainstream, and we can have more to argue about.

For what it’s worth, the top three pitchers on my AL Cy Young ballot would be, 1) Felix Hernandez, 2) Cliff Lee, and 3) Francisco Liriano. My NL Cy Young ballot would be, 1) Roy Halladay, 2) Josh Johnson, and 3) Adam Wainwright.

UPDATE: I had Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies look over this piece and tell me what he thought of it. He corrected me in my assertation that WHIP and BAA are worthless — he told me both stats are just flawed. Also, he corrected me when I wrote that pitchers have zero control over balls in play becoming hits – he said that one pitcher just can’t really control what becomes a hit any better than another pitcher. I just wanted to clear those things up.

Moroz also told me that I should explained my Cy Young rankings, and he’s definitely right. One of the biggest reasons why I picked Halladay and Hernandez as my Cy Youngs was that both have pitched a tremendous amount of innings – Halladay, 207.0; Hernandez, 204.1 — and lead their league in that category by significant margins. The quality of those innings is also tremendous. Halladay is second in the NL in both ERA (2.22) and FIP (2.75), and is first in the entire major leagues in xFIP (2.89). Hernandez is third in the AL in both ERA (2.47) and FIP (3.03), and is tied for second in the AL in xFIP (3.26). Other contenders in some cases are better than Halladay and Hernandez in the categories of ERA, FIP and xFIP, but not significantly enough for me to outweigh the value of the amount of innings that Halladay and Hernandez have logged.

From Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun:

“It might not happen this week, but at some point soon, the Orioles could have a difficult decision to make on veteran starter Kevin Millwood.

Millwood lost his 14th game Sunday, giving up six runs in six innings to the Texas Rangers, who got three-run homers from Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. He has two more losses than any pitcher in the American League. He also leads the AL in earned runs (95) and hits (188) allowed. He has surrendered 26 home runs, tied for the second-highest total in the league and tied for the most he has allowed in any season in his big league career.”

First of all, I liked the acquisition of Millwood from the start, and I still don’t mind it. I obviously thought at the time of the trade that Millwood wasn’t a top-of-the-rotation arm, but it did seem like it would relieve a lot of potential pressure from the young starters — namely Brian Matusz – in feeling like they had to be an ace before even completing 50.0 big league innings. It also brought a starter with a track record of relative success — at least in comparison to the rest of the starters. It seemed like a sound acquisition, especially if all the team gave up was Chris Ray.

Sure, Millwood brought a hefty price tag (the Orioles picked up $12 million of Millwood’s $15 million salary for 2010) and his production figured to not justify his salary, but it was only a one-year commitment. So I hoped he’d churn out a few productive months and the Orioles would flip him for a nice return from a contender seeking a veteran starter at the deadline.

That, as it turned out, was a pipe dream.

Millwood started the season very well — in fact, he was one of the few productive players on the Orioles early in the season. After his May 6th start against the Boston Red Sox, Millwood’s ERA stood at 3.15. His ERA has been on a steady decline from that point to its current unsightly mark of 5.62. But to be fair, the defense behind Millwood has been nothing short of atrocious at times and just as atrocious is his offensive support on a per start basis.

Millwood’s 5.05 FIP and 4.63 xFIP are probably much better indications of how Millwood has pitched this year, but the fact remains that Millwood’s production this year is much less than the team could have reasonably expected when they acquired him. He’s gets hit around like a pinata in some outings, as the quality of the stuff in his repertoire seems to have really taken a nosedive since April. Millwood has had an average repertoire with pretty average results during his entire career, and when one mixes a shaky defense in with the overall decline his stuff, the results aren’t pretty. Hence, the 5.62 ERA.

Millwood isn’t missing any bats (6.0% swinging strike percentage, 9th-lowest in the majors among qualifying starters), and he’s not getting the ground balls to make up for it (39.0% ground ball rate.) So he’s getting hit hard. But you already knew that.

Honestly, I hadn’t recently thought of Millwood dropping out of the Orioles’ starting rotation — the Orioles are paying him a lot of money, after all. Sure, he hasn’t looked very good on the mound – but it never crossed my mind that he’d be moved from the rotation until I read Zrebiec’s blog post. Once Millwood’s poor performance deemed him untradeable in July, I just figured he’d stay in the rotation for the rest of the year. I also figured he’d easily clear waivers given his salary (which he has), but no contender would bother even sending a scout to one of his starts (why would a contender want Millwood, even if the Orioles picked up all of the dollars?)

But could the Orioles possibly just flat-out release Millwood? More from Zrebiec:

“Showalter all but said Chris Tillman, who has strung together three strong starts at Triple-A Norfolk, will rejoin the club when rosters expand in September. There are also indications that left-hander Zach Britton, the Orioles’ top pitching prospect yet to reach the majors, could be summoned to make a couple of September starts. Then there’s Rick VandenHurk, who is currently in the bullpen but is another guy team officials want to evaluate.

The problem is finding opportunities for all these guys. Sure, the Orioles could go to a six-man rotation, but starting today, they have five days off in a 32-day span. With a six-man rotation, that stretch would create a situation where guys would go five or six days in between starts, not exactly an ideal way to stay sharp.

They could shut down one of their young starters — Jake Arrieta would be the most likely candidate because he has already thrown 152 combined innings this year, a professional high — and insert Tillman, who has logged fewer innings that Arrieta. However, Showalter basically said yesterday that while the team is closely monitoring the young pitcher’s workload, it isn’t close to shutting anybody down.

Then, of course, there is the option of simply dropping a current starter, which brings us back to Millwood. His struggles, along with the fact that he probably won’t return next year, make him the most likely candidate, and several of you have been calling for the Orioles to do just that.

However, that decision isn’t as easy as you might think. The numbers are well-documented, but before Sunday’s start, Millwood allowed just five earned runs in 21 innings in his previous three outings.

Millwood has been a great soldier, embracing his role as mentor to the other starting pitchers. He is easily one of the most well-liked guys in the clubhouse. He hasn’t complained one bit that the Orioles have backed him with no offense and very little defense, even when he was pitching well. Millwood also has a good relationship with Showalter built from their days together in Texas.”

I guess I figured before I read this piece from Zrebiec that Millwood would remain an Oriole for the rest of the season mainly because of, like I mentioned before, his hefty salary. If you’re paying a starter $12 million, I’d imagine that even if the Orioles can’t get solid production out of Millwood, then that the Orioles are damn well going to want him to at least eat innings. But it appears as though the Orioles are willing to eat the few remaining millions of dollars on Millwood’s salary in order to clear room for the organization’s young arms not currently in the rotation — Tillman, Britton and VandenHurk.

Tillman, still a highly regarded young pitcher, will pitch in the big leagues in September. In his last three starts at Triple-A, which span 19.2 innings, Tillman has given up just four runs on a combined 18 hits (no homers), four walks and 20 strikeouts. His first three Triple-A starts after getting demoted from the bigs in July were ugly, but he’s righted the ship and is back to blowing away Triple-A hitters (seven innings, two hits, eight strikeouts in his last outing.) Bring him up in September and try to prepare him to be in the Opening Day starting rotation next April. For Tillman, it’s time to stick in a big league rotation.

The Orioles need to let the 22-year-old Tillman try to work out the kinks at the big league level now. The team can’t send him down to Norfolk as soon as he has a poor start in the bigs (I didn’t like the way they were yo-yo’ing him between Baltimore and Norfolk previously), and I don’t know if he can learn much of anything by blowing away Triple-A hitters at this point. It’s time the Orioles give him an extended look for Showalter. Hopefully, Tillman performs well enough in the eyes of Showalter to warrant a spot in the rotation next April.

I wouldn’t worry about getting Britton, who is rapidly approaching his career high in innings pitched for a season, a few starts in September. Britton, the Orioles’ top pitching prospect, is regarded as one of the best prospects in the game. But let’s calm down about getting Britton to the big leagues — I really don’t know what the rush would be with him. After all, this is a 22-year-old who, unlike Tillman, does not have significant time in Triple-A (just nine starts covering 49.2 innings.)

Yes, I understand that he has a nice-looking 3.08 ERA at Norfolk and is a ground-ball machine that will probably overmatch Triple-A hitters soon. I just don’t understand the rush to throw him into the AL East at the end of the year after just a handful of Triple-A starts. Britton’s already done plenty this year. Tell Britton to rest his arm up for the Arizona Fall League in October and to be ready to compete for a spot in the starting rotation in spring training come February (although I think Britton starts next year in Norfolk to delay his service time, but I feel like he may force his way up before he gains an extra year before arbitration.)

And I’m sure VandenHurk will get a couple starts. So that would leave, as of now, a September rotation of Matusz, Millwood, Tillman, Brad Bergesen, Jeremy Guthrie and Jake Arrieta. VandenHurk will probably get a couple spot starts. That’s six starters minus VandenHurk. There are five rotation spots. If the Orioles are to keep a five-man rotation — and Zrebiec did mention in his piece that a six-man rotation for the Orioles is pretty impractical at this point — then a starter has to go. Zrebiec also mentioned that Arrieta could get shut down, but the team is no where near shutting down Arrieta — or anyone else.

The Orioles could send Bergesen, who hasn’t exactly been a world-beater this year, to the bullpen and keep Millwood in the rotation. But that isn’t practical in the sense that Bergesen is someone who could be a fifth starter for the Orioles next year, and the only way to evaluate whether he can get AL East hitters out is by sending him out there every fifth day. Without Bergesen leaving the rotation or Arrieta being shut down or the possibility of a six-man rotation, the odd man out is Millwood.

Yes, Millwood has been a great soldier. He got traded from a contender in the Texas Rangers to a non-contender in the Orioles, and has been treated to abysmal offensive and defensive support and hasn’t complained about any of it once. But quite frankly, the team has to look past the fact that Millwood has been a good soldier and he’s a good clubhouse guy and look towards the future of the team. To help evaluate the organization’s pieces for 2011, releasing Millwood soon (by September 1?) and replacing his spot in the rotation with Tillman is necessary.

Getting Tillman starts in September is infinitely more valuable to the Orioles long-term than Millwood just playing out his contract — and that’d be the case even if Millwood was pitching well (and in that case, he’d be gone via trade rather than through a release.) If the players in the clubhouse feel bad that Millwood is the one that’s let loose, then tough.

Let’s be honest here — the only way the Orioles can let Millwood loose is through a release. There’s no way any team in the big leagues takes him off their hands with the way Millwood is pitching right now. Millwood’s lack of productivity just compounds the need for Tillman to take his spot in the rotation.

Ok, quick background check first: Ronnie is going to the club and messing around with random girls behind the back of his girlfriend, Sammi. Then he’s going back to the house and hopping in bed with Sammi at the end of the night. Everyone else but Sammi knows Ronnie is messing around. Background check over.

-There was big drama to begin the show. Sammi talked to Snooki and JWOWW about whether they knew if Ronnie was messing around behind her back or not. Both grudgingly did not admit to Sammi that Ronnie was messing around behind her back, although they really wanted to tell her (with them being good friends and all.) Apparently, they just didn’t feel like it was their place to tell Sammi about Ronnie and it was better for the problem to escalate to the point where all Hell breaks loose and for Ronnie to personally deal with the mess he created. Of course, if they had just told Sammi, they would have been telling their friend the truth and, in doing so, would mean that Sammi could rightly move on from her relationship with Ronnie. But they didn’t. This, my friends, is Jersey Shore Logic.

-The girls not telling Sammi about Ronnie this whole time couldn’t have had anything to do with the show trying to string along a storyline for all it’s worth, could it? Especially now that it’s the only thing currently brewing, with Angelina has making up with the entire house? No…it couldn’t be…

-Ronnie came back from the episode’s first club at 6 a.m. and Sammi started yelling at Ronnie, as she’s pretty mad that Ronnie went to the club that night without her. Sammi tells Ronnie that when she previously told him that he could go to the club, she was really using it as a test to see if Ronnie would stay home with her rather than go see random girls with the rest of the guys. Of course, as she says, Ronnie failed. Ronnie then defends himself against this “test” by saying the reason he’s not in college is that he fails all of his tests. Wait…Ronnie’s not college material? I’m stunned.

-Sammi “breaks up” with Ronnie at the episode’s second club one night. Ronnie then finds Sammi and the rest of the clowns at another club later in the night, where Ronnie is drunk out of his mind. (Who knew Sammi was a great enough girl to send someone into a drunken frenzy?) But of course, whenever Sammi “ends it,” it unfortunately never ends. While Ronnie was recovering from his drunkeness at the house, he and Sammi made up again. I’m so sick of this Sammi-Ronnie storyline.

-Why doesn’t Sammi just dump Ronnie and get it over with? She’s obviously not happy with him, and he’s driving her crazy. At this point, I’m feeling like the producers of the show were just telling her to stay with him for as long as conceivably possible to keep this storyline chugging along. Honestly, how could Sammi not know that Ronnie was messing around with girls at the clubs? I’m not sure that any human being with a brain — yes, even the Jersey Shore clowns – is dumb enough to think that Ronnie isn’t a cheater. 

-I really hope a brand new storyline pops up. This Ronnie-Sammi storyline has gotten so old. Please, something new. At the beginning of the second episode, I was worrying that the show would hold onto this storyline for way too long. Sure enough, they have. In fact, at one point towards the end of the episode, Sammi says something to the tune of, “I’m happier with Ronnie than without him.” Please, for the love of God, make this storyline go away.

-Remember when I mentioned that the girls’ decision to let the Ronnie-cheating-on-Sammi-behind-her-back situation fester to the point where all Hell breaks loose? Well, they’ve made another genius decision to resolve this situation for once. They planned to — hold your breath — write an anonymous letter detailing how Ronnie had cheated with her at the club at put it in Sammi’s dresser for her to find. Jersey Shore Logic once again! This is where next week’s episode picks up.

-”When I go home, I’m going to work at an ice cream shop – because that’s where I get all the girls.” -Vinny

I’d like to welcome two new writers to the blog — Scott Kornberg and Aaron Watkins, both of whom are a part of the journalism program at the University of Maryland along with me. Kornberg is also a part of my weekly talk show every Monday night from 8-9 p.m. when classes are in session.

Kornberg will be writing about Maryland football and basketball in the future, while Watkins will be writing about the Baltimore Ravens and Maryland basketball. You can follow both Kornberg and Watkins on Twitter — @Scott_Kornberg and @acewat.

I’m not sure when their first posts will be or what they’ll be about, but I’m sure they’ll be must-reads. They’re both smart dudes who know what they’re talking about when it comes to sports.

Scott Boras may have made every Baltimore Orioles’ fan succomb to sickness as the clock approached midnight on Monday night – you can certainly count me in that group — even though I, as well as every other Orioles fan, was told that Miami-area prep shortstop Manny Machado would agree to terms right at the deadline.

In the end, Machado did indeed agree to terms with the Orioles, an outcome that has been expected since the moment he was drafted. Machado and Boras, his adviser, agreed to a $5.25 million bonus with the team, which is the second-highest draft bonus in franchise history behind current catcher Matt Wieters’ $6 million bonus that he received in 2007. Wieters was also advised by Boras.

(EDIT: I forgot to mention at the time I first published this post that Machado’s agreement was completed three minutes before the midnight deadline and that his contract is not a big league deal.)

Machado tweeted the following in the wee hours of Tuesday morning: “Finally an Oriole!!!! Excited love the fan base. Can’t wait to meet everyone.”

If you’re on Twitter, you can follow Machado — @MannyMachado3.

First of all, I would like to point out that Jim Callis of Baseball America was right on the money (no pun intended) regarding the Orioles’ draft. I asked him 10 days ago on Twitter what kind of bonus Machado was in line for, and he responded that he thought Machado would get between five and six million dollars. Bingo.

He also estimated that first overall pick, Bryce Harper, would receive between 10 and 12 million dollars — he was just barely off on that one, as the Washington Nationals and Harper/Boras agreed to $9.9 million in guaranteed money as a part of a major league contract. Harper’s signing bonus was $6.25 million, which was a little less than second overall pick Jameson Taillon’s $6.5 million bonus from the Pittsburgh Pirates. But Harper will get more guaranteed money in the long run from these draft deals.

Anyway, the bottom line for the Orioles in regards to the Machado agreement — well, my assusmption – is that he immediately becomes the Orioles’ second-best prospect behind stud left-handed starter Zach Britton, who is currently at Triple-A Norfolk and may get a look at the big league level in September. Machado is most definitely already the organization’s top prospect among position players – I can’t imagine that any hitter currently in the system is anywhere close to the kind of prospect that Machado is.

That Machado immediately becomes the organization’s top position player prospect — and, again, that’s just my assumption that he does indeed already have that title — tells one how relatively bleak the outlook on position players coming through the system was before Machado/Boras agreed to terms with the Orioles. We can debate all day about whether the lack of potential impact hitters in the system is a byproduct of the Orioles’ focusing their recent drafts primarily on pitching, or whether it’s because of poor development of hitters throughout the system. It’s probably both.

The Machado agreement also nails down the Orioles’ long-term future at shortstop, a position where the team has lacked a true future for quite some time. It’s probably useless to put an estimated major league arrival on Machado because so many things can happen between now and a possible big league arrival. Injuries, believe it or not, have been known to occur in sports. Or maybe Machado shows that he’s a very advanced hitter once he’s in pro ball and moves much faster than someone coming out of high school typically does. We just don’t know.

Useless or not, I will indeed be asking knowledgable people on Twitter about Machado’s estimated time of arrival. I can’t help myself.

Personally, I’m interested to know if the Orioles feel Machado is ready to compete in the Arizona Fall League this year. There are a substantial number of high-quality prospects who participate in that league every year (Wieters, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton and Dominic Brown are recent names that have passed through.) It’s believed that Harper will participate in the AFL this year.

In other Orioles-related draft news, the team agreed to terms with seventh-round draft pick Matt Bywater, a left-handed pitcher out of Pepperdine University, and 19th-rounder Kenny Wise, a right-handed pitcher out of Sante Fe Community College in Florida.

I have to give Callis more props here. I asked Callis two days ago on Twitter whether he thought the Orioles’ would sign Dixon Anderson (the team’s sixth-rounder) or Bywater. Callis responded that he thought the Orioles would “sign at least one of them.” Later that day, it was reported as unlikely that the Orioles would be able to sign Bywater, and that the team definitely wouldn’t be able to sign Anderson. And what do you know? Bywater agrees to a $195,000 bonus on deadline day. Callis was right again.

If you’re a fan of a particular team and are following the team’s progress in signing its draft picks, don’t believe much of anything that’s reported leading up to the deadline. Everything can change on deadline day for any given draftee that hasn’t agreed to terms yet. In the case of Bywater, the report I linked above from The Baltimore Sun quotes Orioles’ scouting director Joe Jordan as not being very optomistic about signing Bywater. But these things tend to come together at the deadline.

Hell, for the upper-tier talents such as Harper and Machado, the real negotiations don’t even begin until after 11 p.m. on deadline day. If you hear that ”highly regarded first-rounder X may not sign” leading up to the deadline, just ignore it. It’s meaningless.